Are we done overvaluing the defense market

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: Do_Bap

Team: 2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Nov. 30, 2023

Published: Nov. 30, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Trades

TOR

Tanev, Christopher ($2,250,000 retained)

CGY

Abruzzese, Nick
2024 3rd round pick (NYI)
2024 5th round pick (TOR)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$83,500,000	$79,106,450	$0	$0	$4,393,550

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Knies, Matthew $925,000$925,000 LW, RW RFA - 2	Matthews, Auston $11,640,250$11,640,250 C NMC UFA - 1	Marner, Mitchell $10,903,000$10,903,000 RW NMC UFA - 2
Bertuzzi, Tyler $5,500,000$5,500,000 LW, RW NMC UFA - 1	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 2	Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW NMC UFA - 1
Robertson, Nicholas $796,667$796,667 LW, RW RFA - 1	Domi, Max $3,000,000$3,000,000 C, RW M-NTC UFA - 1	Järnkrok, Calle $2,100,000$2,100,000 RW, C, LW M-NTC UFA - 3
Gregor, Noah $775,000$775,000 LW, RW RFA - 1	Kämpf, David $2,400,000$2,400,000 C M-NTC UFA - 4	Reaves, Ryan $1,350,000$1,350,000 RW UFA - 3
McMann, Bobby $762,500$762,500 RW, LW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $7,500,000$7,500,000 LD NMC UFA - 7	Tanev, Christopher -$1,125,000-$1,125,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 1	Samsonov, Ilya $3,550,000$3,550,000 G UFA - 1
Brodie, TJ $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 1	Liljegren, Timothy $1,400,000$1,400,000 RD RFA - 1	Woll, Joseph $766,667$766,667 G RFA - 2
McCabe, Jake $2,000,000$2,000,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 2	Timmins, Conor $1,100,000$1,100,000 RD RFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Giordano, Mark $800,000$800,000 LD UFA - 1		Muzzin, Jake $5,625,000$5,625,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 1
		Murray, Matt $4,687,500$4,687,500 G M-NTC UFA - 1
		Klingberg, John $4,150,000$4,150,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 1

Nov. 30, 2023 at 9:37 p.m.

oilfire

Joined: Jul. 2022

Posts: 1,725

Likes: 666

Hell nah, Knies or fork off.

Nov. 30, 2023 at 9:37 p.m.

SomeonesOffended

FKA Bigtittielarper

Joined: Jun. 2020

Posts: 7,728

Likes: 2,226

Tanev can still get a first all day long

NYR1983 and GMBL liked this.

Nov. 30, 2023 at 9:38 p.m.

Rob32sjsharks

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 11,228

Likes: 4,666

You’re grossly undervaluing the market here bud!

NYR1983 and SomeonesOffended liked this.

Nov. 30, 2023 at 9:39 p.m.

mv21227

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 10,163

Likes: 9,389

Tanev is better than Zadorov and also a RHD. He definitely costs more, especially with retention. Could maybe get a 1st, or at least a 2nd + prospect/lower pick

NYR1983, SomeonesOffended, TooMalevolent and 1 other person liked this.

Nov. 30, 2023 at 9:39 p.m.

Do_Bap

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 677

Likes: 95

Quoting: SomeonesOffended

Tanev can still get a first all day long

Not for a 34 year old rental 🤣

Nov. 30, 2023 at 9:42 p.m.

GeneralLandro

Joined: Jun. 2021

Posts: 15,532

Likes: 11,915

Quoting: Do_Bap

Not for a 34 year old rental 🤣

He’s a RHD, automatically more value attached to him

NYR1983 and SomeonesOffended liked this.

Nov. 30, 2023 at 9:48 p.m.

JayTea

14m in dead cap

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 3,588

Likes: 3,067

Drop the retention if you want to try to make a comparison.

NYR1983 liked this.

Nov. 30, 2023 at 9:54 p.m.

TMLBRIAN

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 9,523

Likes: 4,173

Tanev is clearly quite a bit more valuable than Zadorov. 50% retention and I think the minimum is a 1st round pick. I have been calling a 1st + 3rd for Tanev (50%). Zadorov is a number 5 dman who is huge. Tanev is a number 3 dman who is right handed. The value difference between a #5 and a #3 is quite a bit.

SomeonesOffended liked this.

Nov. 30, 2023 at 10:08 p.m.

vols94

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 4,184

Likes: 1,001

If Zadarov was such a value and everyone wants to play in Toronto why did Summer of Brad not get him?

Nov. 30, 2023 at 10:09 p.m.

#10

SharkTank

Tank it baby

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 6,240

Likes: 4,273

Are we done assuming every available defenseman is being traded to the Leafs?

Nov. 30, 2023 at 10:12 p.m.

#11

NHLfan10506

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 40,356

Likes: 18,411

I would think 2nd + 3rd for Tanev…bit more with retention…is probably fair.

Calgary would have to really love Abruzzese

SomeonesOffended and GMBL liked this.

Nov. 30, 2023 at 10:39 p.m.

#12

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,713

Likes: 22,769

"Are we done overvaluing the defense market?" Well you should know, on CF it seems all Leaf Dmen are non NHLers, and every Dman on every other NHL are top 2.
Unless teams are really desperate now to buy, there probably isn't a reason to buy right now. Meaning come closer to TDL, teams both buyers and sellers will know their needs better.
It seems that the Leafs seem to be ONLY team that are buyers of Dmen on CF. So it's buyer market so the Leafs will have lots of choices
Seriously, Tanev might be worth a bit more but not a lot more as you proposed.

Nov. 30, 2023 at 10:43 p.m.

#13

MitchJr

Joined: Jan. 2023

Posts: 3,565

Likes: 1,196

Quoting: vols94

If Zadarov was such a value and everyone wants to play in Toronto why did Summer of Brad not get him?

Quoting: SharkTank

Are we done assuming every available defenseman is being traded to the Leafs?

This wasn’t a FA signing, so where the player wanted to play is irrelevant, no?
Like it or not - Toronto is the centre of the hockey universe and the Leafs need a dman. Even on cap friendly nothing generates 👀 like the Leafs logo 🤷🏻 so there will be a steady stream of dmen traded to Leafs.

Nov. 30, 2023 at 11:05 p.m.

#14

jaok3

Marner rocks

Joined: Jun. 2021

Posts: 4,047

Likes: 891

Quoting: TMLBRIAN

Leafs give a 1st+3rd and Abruzzese. Calgary sends a 2nd and Tanev.

Nov. 30, 2023 at 11:13 p.m.

#15

SomeonesOffended

FKA Bigtittielarper

Joined: Jun. 2020

Posts: 7,728

Likes: 2,226

Quoting: oilfire

Hell nah, Knies or fork off.

You could offer up lindholm half retained and we’d still say no lol

oilfire and BasementGM liked this.

Nov. 30, 2023 at 11:36 p.m.

#16

Affectionate_Side_64

Joined: Jul. 2022

Posts: 2,188

Likes: 434

Quoting: palhal

You seriously can't admit by now that the Leafs need to upgrade the backend? You against the world I guess...

What exactly is your argument at this point? Should be a fun one...

Nov. 30, 2023 at 11:41 p.m.

#17

BasementGM

Joined: Oct. 2023

Posts: 128

Likes: 35

Quoting: vols94

If Zadarov was such a value and everyone wants to play in Toronto why did Summer of Brad not get him?

Calgary not wanting to retain salary. (They never do)

Nov. 30, 2023 at 11:42 p.m.

#18

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,713

Likes: 22,769

Quoting: Affectionate_Side_64

You seriously can't admit by now that the Leafs need to upgrade the backend? You against the world I guess...

What exactly is your argument at this point? Should be a fun one...

But at what cost? It's kinda ridiculous to think the 4th Dmen on the Flames is THAT much of improvement. Can't the CF followers have a little more imagination than just keep naming Tanev (thank goodnessZaradov has been traded)? Aren't there other NHL Dmen available?
My argument was that the in so many Tanev and Zaradov trades that Leafs had to give up a first rounder and more for just one of these players. FYI, Zaradov was just traded for third and fifth. That's my point. What's yours?

Nov. 30, 2023 at 11:47 p.m.

#19

Affectionate_Side_64

Joined: Jul. 2022

Posts: 2,188

Likes: 434

Quoting: palhal

At whatever cost gives us the best value. How does the Zadorov return help to prove your point, are you saying he wouldn't have been worth that? Tanev will not cost as much as some people are claiming I agree, and yes there are other D-men available I'm sure. My point is if it's not Tanev (who would definitely be an upgrade to the backend) then it needs to be someone else. You're suggesting that we're fine as is, and the cost of going into the playoffs with this D core would be another 1st round exit. A cost that is far greater for this team than futures.

Dec. 1, 2023 at 12:04 a.m.

#20

TooMalevolent

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 1,574

Likes: 455

Quoting: mv21227

Tanev is better than Zadorov and also a RHD. He definitely costs more, especially with retention. Could maybe get a 1st, or at least a 2nd + prospect/lower pick

I think it's definitely the latter part of what you said. I think that's the perfect value. I guess it's a 1st if there's an extension window or the demand is so high.

Dec. 1, 2023 at 12:48 a.m.

#21

GMBL

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 8,567

Likes: 3,319

Quoting: Do_Bap

Not for a 34 year old rental 🤣

The reality is that the trade market, especially the rental one can be unpredictable, there's a range of plausible returns, but there's only going to be one (or none). I thought the low-end for Zadorov was a 3rd+5th/C-prospect, and that he would only net that because of market saturation (3-guys out of CGY alone) but I'm kind of surprised that he went for that now since it sounded like interest had started to pick up. I guess that shows us in the end, acquiring team's GMs are looking for a good deal contrary to what some people on here think especially when the player publicly requests a trade.

For Tanev it could be anywhere from a 1st+3rd to a 2nd+3rd like @NHLfan10506 said.

Giordano was 38 when the Leafs paid two 2nds + a 3rd for him and Blackwell, the 3rd was probably for the retention+Blackwell.

Dec. 1, 2023 at 11:24 a.m.

#22

Do_Bap

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 677

Likes: 95

Quoting: GMBL

The reality is that the trade market, especially the rental one can be unpredictable, there's a range of plausible returns, but there's only going to be one (or none). I thought the low-end for Zadorov was a 3rd+5th/C-prospect, and that he would only net that because of market saturation (3-guys out of CGY alone) but I'm kind of surprised that he went for that now since it sounded like interest had started to pick up. I guess that shows us in the end, acquiring team's GMs are looking for a good deal contrary to what some people on here think especially when the player publicly requests a trade.

For Tanev it could be anywhere from a 1st+3rd to a 2nd+3rd like NHLfan10506 said.

Giordano was 38 when the Leafs paid two 2nds + a 3rd for him and Blackwell, the 3rd was probably for the retention+Blackwell.

The only defensemen who go for firsts aren't rentals, Chychryn, Muzzin, and Karlsson for example. Tanev will likely bring in a prospect and a 2nd.

Dec. 1, 2023 at 11:28 a.m.

#23

GMBL

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 8,567

Likes: 3,319

Quoting: Do_Bap

The only defensemen who go for firsts aren't rentals, Chychryn, Muzzin, and Karlsson for example. Tanev will likely bring in a prospect and a 2nd.

What about Orlov, Gavrikov (he didn't sign until the off-season, so he was rental just not a pure rental) and Chiarot?

Dec. 1, 2023 at 11:30 a.m.

#24

Do_Bap

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 677

Likes: 95

Quoting: GMBL

What about Orlov, Gavrikov (he didn't sign until the off-season, so he was rental just not a pure rental) and Chiarot?

How did any of those turn out?

Dec. 1, 2023 at 11:34 a.m.

#25

GMBL

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 8,567

Likes: 3,319

Quoting: Do_Bap

How did any of those turn out?

Other than Chiarot, pretty fine. Gavrikov ended up re-signing, Orlov was good with BOS, but they got upset. Most rentals don't yield results anyway, whether they be for defenders or forwards.

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Are we done overvaluing the defense market

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