Quoting: Shanesaw9
I don't understand MTL's usage of Barron. Actually I don't understand their usage of their entire D-core really. I've been watching some questionable defensive efforts for some time now, so I wanted to dig into the numbers using natural stat trick and see what could be learned.
MTL D pairings GF% + xGF% 5v5 (>150 min)
1. Guhle - Kovacevic, 58.82 + 54.69 = 113.51%
2. Struble - Kovacevic, 60 + 49.66 = 109.66%
3. Xhekaj - *** , 55.56 + 48.59 = 104.59
4. Matheson - Barron, 58.33 + 43.75 = 102.08%
5. Guhle - Barron, 50 + 48.92 = 98.92%
6. Harris - *** , 47.22 + 50.23 = 97.45
7. Matheson - Savard, 50 + 47.32 = 97.32%
8. Matheson - Guhle*, 50 + 44.18 = 94.18%
*Playing on off side.
***Individual numbers, hasn't played >150 min on one pair.
Of course this doesn't take into consideration things like matchups, usage, etc. however MTL in general is a negative goal differential team so I consider > 100% to be good no matter what your role is. That said, I have a few observations.
1. Guhle - Kovacevic / Struble - Kovacevic / Xhekaj - Kovacevic have been MTL's best defensive pairs. Kovacevic is very underrated by fans and management.
2. What is St. Louis' beef with Xhekaj this year? He barely gets used but he's done just fine other than some bad penalties (which other vets have been more guilty of).
3. Matheson's best D partner is Barron, who isn't even playing in the NHL. Guhle - Barron also put up respectable results and is the most common pairing this season so they did this in the largest sample size. Why is Barron in Laval? What is management's plan for him exactly? Mailloux and Reinbacher are coming shouldn't we be getting a really good look at him in the NHL?
4. Savard puts up some decent results with Matheson (no better than Barron) playing some tough matchups no doubt, however he is abysmal with anyone else on the team. I'd be trading him if he holds any value.
5. Matheson - Guhle is not it, why are we forcing Guhle to play on his offside when there are RHD options that work just fine?
Anyways all this to say based on these results, my healthy lineup without any trades next year would be:
Guhle - Barron
Matheson - Savard
Xhekaj - Kovacevic
Harris
Struble - Mailloux
Hutson - Reinbacher
Trudeau - Tourigny
Norlinder
If I'm giving MSL the benefit of the doubt, I see the deployment as a form of stress test. Increase usage and responsibility slowly until a player breaks, then address what was revealed during that time.
If I'm looking at it in a less positive light, MSL (and staff) have a propensity to make decisions based on visible errors, in some kind of a "3 strikes and you're out" methodology.
Barron saw increased usage this year and actually had a long leash. He was showing improvement. Miscues did pile up (as should be expected), but was he pulled to address them or punish them?
Same with Xhekaj, only he seemed to have a shorter leash, but that may simply be because there were less expectations for him beyond controlling his aggression.
Kovacevic is indeed underrated. With only 125 games of experience and improved performance despite less favorable deployment, I'd like to see him rewarded with more playing time. I feel like he's being dismissed too easily as a potential mainstay after Savard's departure.
It's a numbers game with his age and our depth coming up, but he deserves more opportunity.
Struble is in a similar position. He's excelling but the numbers don't necessarily support it. He's passing the eye test with flying colors though. The St Louis game might have been his first real noticeable blunder of the season, and he'll learn from that.
Harris on the other hand has slipped this year. Injuries have been a factor but he's getting less usage and better deployment and still producing worse results.
We need to clear room on our blue line to give these players more time to develop. Savard out. One of Struble, Harris, Xhekaj out. More minutes and less rotation for everyone else.