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ms39

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Forum: Armchair-GM4 hours ago
Thread: Rossi to the Island - MIN Perspective
Not saying I’d love this as a Wild fan, but trying to get in the head of Bill Guerin + account for cap troubles! As has been shared on various MIN ACGMs, Michael Russo wrote this in response to the question, “What are the chances Marco Rossi gets traded?”

“Higher than you’d think. If the Wild could trade Rossi for the same level of high-end prospect, but one who’s bigger and faster, there’s a real chance they’d pull the trigger.

“For instance, the Wild were interested in Cutter Gauthier before Philadelphia traded his rights to Anaheim. That is the type of trade they might consider for Rossi.”

So, while Danny Nelson isn’t revered like Cutter Gauthier, he’s a big center prospect, and adding Brock for a year fills the immediate hole of a Rossi departure as Danny Nelson continues to develop at Notre Dame (and, ultimately, probably, AHL Iowa).

https://theathletic.com/5439840/2024/04/24/wild-gustavsson-rossi-trades-free-agency/
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 12 at 1:40 p.m.
Thread: Not a CBJ Fan Just Curious
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dopplsan</b></div><div>I like where you are going with the aggressiveness - I’ve long been upset at the number of times Jarmo did his “weaponize the cap,” schpiel, only to, well, not.

My hold up is the Kampf trade and the retention - I get the balance of cap with trading for him and retaining on Elvis, but doing that and then trading for Campbell feels redundant, and that’s before getting to also retaining on Grubauer (I.e. we just turned one $5.4M cap hit into three for a total of $10.6M). I’ve <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/5003890">danced on this before</a>, but I think an Elvis for Campbell 1-for-1 could work. The alternative is Elvis just gets bought out, which is a cap hit CBJ can take right now.

Laine does need to be moved, and as much as I feel he would kick ass in VGK, I don’t see CBJ being on Bill’s OK list for his NTC.

I actually think CBJ’s C depth is at the best it’s been in a long time. Fantilli-Sillinger-Voronkov-Kuraly is looking like it could be real, and that’s before CBJ likely end up with a Lindstrom or Cattan (or Celebrini?) after this draft.

As for Dillon? CBJ already have Guds as their obligatory “big-bodied D” signing. Voronkov is also built like <a href="https://theathletic.com/4489581/2023/05/04/blue-jackets-dmitri-voronkov/?source=user_shared_article" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">semi-truck,</a> and will learn to throw the body more as he gets experience. Mateychuk almost made the team out of camp this year, and he’ll likely slot in next season.</div></div>

This is great insight from someone I can assume is a real and knowledgable Columbus fan! So, thank you for engaging sincerely.

As an Islanders fan, and real believer in Lou, I think you take a center over a winger by any means necessary. (We're playing our best hockey of the season right now with 6 centers! Our best line—Cizikas-Horvat-Barzal—is all centers!) I think being able to move Voronkov and Johnson (and maybe even Sillinger, too) to the wing would help their development. Plus, you can still get some shifts in at center. Then you've got Jenner as another fill-in center who plays wing, and Kuraly as center depth.
(Not a disagreement with your assessment here. I just think it helps a club to have as many centers as possible, and then figure out where to put ’em.)
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 4, 2023 at 10:16 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 27, 2023 at 12:33 a.m.
Thread: Leafs Wild Big Swap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CorrosionRF</b></div><div>Minnesota says no. Even with the 2 firsts</div></div>

I lean toward MIN declines, too, but you never know with their cap situation. They get the 1-year relief to re-sign Addison and Gustavsson with no issue (and maybe even add another low-cost guy) while gaining the draft capital. But then you’re looking at the same $9M at least or maybe more to keep Nylander. Tough to say if that’s worth a couple of late 1sts. BUT if you do thread that needle and re-sign Nylander to let’s say $10Mx8, then you have a much longer cost certainty than renegotiating with Kaprizov in a few years when the cap is even higher and so is his star power.

Leafs clearly get the better player but comes with the draft capital cost and needing to find a way to keep Kaprizov when new mega-deals for Marner and Matthews are on the books.

Not a deal I see really happening but not many saw Huberdeau for Tkachuk! I think if the Leafs do move on this summer from Nylander (or Marner for that matter) it’ll be for a much bigger fish than we all expect, and, as I suggested above, Minnesota is a likelier candidate than may seem at first glance since an extra $2.5M means a lot for them.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 16, 2023 at 9:45 a.m.
Thread: NYI Change for the Sake of Change
Glad to see the Islanders/Habs split on this because as fans it is natural for us to overrate our own players! You're never going to get both sides in full agreement on these things. Anderson is the better player <em>right now</em> (if healthy), and Wahlstrom <em>could be better</em>, but, if he lives up to his potential, that would come at a higher cap hit than $2.75M over the next 4 seasons. Best case scenario from Wahlstrom's perspective is taking something in the 2x$1-1.5M range for a bridge deal then the sky's the limit. Does he have a DeBrincat-like breakout? He could get pricey, and that's fine, but this trade is not just "Josh Anderson for Oliver Wahlstrom." It's trading uncertainty (Wahlstrom) for a middle-six lock (Anderson) at a reasonable cap hit. And that costs something from an Islanders perspective. From a Habs perspective, Wahlstrom better fits the rebuild timeline.

I'll also just say again, I wouldn't like this trade as an Islanders fan but I'd be intrigued by it.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 14, 2022 at 11:55 p.m.
Thread: Tkachuk to the Island
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dannibalcorpse</b></div><div>I'll do my best to be constructive but instead of hitting the trades first I want to talk contracts:

-One thing Gaudreau and Filip Forsberg before him did this summer was set the market for extensions. Forsberg signed 8x$8.5M, Gaudrea signed 7x$9.8M. Even being younger, I can't see Tkachuk pushing *this* much past what those two guys got. I'd put the ceiling of his extension at $10M. Bellows signs below $1M, a long term Dobson extension probably clocks in at $7M max, and Romanov probably bridges at $3M. That's about $5.5M less in cap if you bring the contracts to a more realistic number.

As far as the trade:
-Not going to comment on the overkill because you said it yourself: you're emptying the entire draft cupboard. I don't think it will take that much, but for the sake of the bit I'll let it slide. It is fair to say that Beau probably heads to Calgary in any version of this deal.

-I don't know if Varlamov waives for San Jose, and I don't think the Sharks have the cap to make this deal straight up. Even if they do, I don't think the Isles add this much - they're more or less the same age, almost identical stats last year, and while Varly has the higher cap hit he also has the recent playoff success so I think he makes up a little of that negative value there.

-Palmieri would probably waive to go back to the Devils, and I think the value is actually fair here. Isles add a little extra value to the package to get a better pick back.

-This goes off the rails. Wahlstrom is a high potential forward and one of the few young NHL-ready players in the organization. Pairing him with Panik and a 4th to get back a pair of 2nds is undervaluing what he's worth to the team.

-Mayfield should have higher value than this - he's an expiring 4th/5th D on a very cheap deal. If I'm moving him I'm looking for a strong package - a 2nd rounder pick and B-tier prospect coming back at least. There's no one in the org ready to step up and take over RD3, so if you're going to create a new hole it has to be for a strong return.

-Minnesota probably doesn't need a goalie after signing MAF and acquiring Filip Gustavsson, and this is where that extra money you saved up to comes into play. Instead of offloading Reimer because of cap constraints, he sticks around as Sorokin's backup and then you don't have to rush Jakub Skarek into the NHL.

-If you want Martin off the roster I think you can more easily bury him in Bridgeport - it's a minimal cap penalty for burying him (~$350K) and I think Lou keeps him around out of loyalty. A 6th and a 7th isn't a ton to pay, sure, but if you can keep those lottery tickets on hand, why not?

-Lee put up 28 goals last year on the island; Lucic has scored 28 total goals in 206 GP since coming to Calgary in 2019. Lee bounced back nicely from his torn ACL last season and plays a game that should hopefully age well - he's not a speed guy, he's a more physical player but he's not a guy that throws the body all the time (the way Lucic played earlier in his career.) I still think you're not gonna love the last couple years on his deal, but he's still a useful player on this team. And you cannot discount the fact that he was the first guy named captain after Tavares left the team - he seems to take that role very seriously and I think that he flexes his NTC on any deal with the goal of being a one-team man for his career.</div></div>



Thank you for all this. Really thoughtful and I appreciate it.

All of the overpays, I think it comes from the sense that teams would see we’re in dire straits cap-wise and have no inclination to help out. (If there were ever a world where these trades happened in some form—and I realize now that’s particularly unlikely—you’d think Lou would keep it all quiet, though, and avoid the sense of desperation.)

As far as giving up Lee, it hurts on the ice and in the locker room, for sure. It’s also just hard to look at things like The Athletic’s GSVA model and see how Tkachuk put up 5.8 (while wearing an A on his chest) and Beau and Lee combined for 1.5. It would take something special to pry him out of there, especially after losing Gaudreau.

I really do appreciate you taking the thoughts seriously even if I did not execute well. This was not meant as a troll at all. Just a hurt Islanders fan wanting to see his team make a big move to improve (and keep Bailey, sentimentally and probably realistically).
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 14, 2022 at 11:22 p.m.
Thread: Tkachuk to the Island
I actually tried really hard on this and I was excited to share it.

I know it’s not realistic with so many moving parts, but I wanted to see how it might be possible to land a top player while making cap space for him and the RFAs (and keeping in mind a Barzal extension).

My thinking was that an offer sheet is already four 1sts but that would get matched, so try to give Calgary something that’s hopefully as, if not more, enticing. Two top 6 wingers, two 1sts, two 2nds, and a smattering of smaller picks, along with taking back Lucic so that they’re not just taking on a ton of salary. And Tkachuk deserves that deal, if not more.

I’m curious where folks think I’m under- or overvaluing players. My thinking is for something like the Wahlly to Anaheim trade, we’ve got to pay the cost of dumping Panik’s salary so it’s two seconds instead of something a little richer (plus Anaheim wouldn’t want to part with their own good draft picks). I figure that counts as an undervalue for Wahlly but if two 2nds for him and a Panik dump (while also needing to throw in a 4th to sweeten the deal) is actually an overvalue, then I’ve simply misjudged.

I’m happy to learn from the experience.

Thank you.