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poeticentropy

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Oct. 5, 2020
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San Jose Sharks
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Forum: NHL TradesAug. 6, 2023 at 3:31 p.m.
Thread: (PIT/MTL/SJS) - Granlund, Rutta, Petry, DeSmith, Légaré, 2024 1st (PIT), 2025 2nd (PIT) for Pitlick, Hoffman for Karlsson, Hamaliuk, 2026 3rd (SJS)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jpsnow13</b></div><div>All this is true, but you are missing out on<strong> the no 1 reason to make this trade. SJ saving a lot of money.
</strong>
Everybody said they would have to eat 25%+ to trade Karlsson away and were able to do it for half of that dead money.</div></div>
Are they though? Let's do the math.

Karlsson is owed $39M over the next 4 years. San Jose retained 13%, or $5M. They took back 3 players: Hoffman ($5M), Granlund ($11M) and Rutta ($5M). This trade is costing them $26M in cash over the next 4 years.

If they had simply retained 50% on Karlsson, that would have cost them $19.5M over the next 4 years. So this trade is NOT saving them money.

Here's the other thing: what would the return have been if they had offered to retain 50%? I would think it would be significantly higher in terms of picks &amp; prospects.

Yes they do free up more cap space in year 3 and 4 doing it this way, but with the cap set to rise significantly and SJS not poised to come out of their rebuild any time soon, is this really any use to them?

I don't see any way to couch this as a successful manoeuvr by Grier.
Forum: NHL TradesAug. 6, 2023 at 12:52 p.m.
Thread: (PIT/MTL/SJS) - Granlund, Rutta, Petry, DeSmith, Légaré, 2024 1st (PIT), 2025 2nd (PIT) for Pitlick, Hoffman for Karlsson, Hamaliuk, 2026 3rd (SJS)
1. San Jose Sharks traded:

2023 Norris Trophy Winner Erik Karlsson at 10 million x 4
ECHL Prospect Dillon Hamaliuk
San Jose's 2026 3rd round pick

for

Mike Hoffman
Mikael Granlund
Jan Rutta
Pittsburgh's 2024 1st round pick with Top 10 Protection


This is awful for San Jose




2. Montreal traded:

Mike Hoffman
Rem Pitlick

for

Jeff Petry at 4.6875 million x 2
Casey DeSmith
AHL prospect Nathan Legare
Pittsburgh's 2025 2nd round pick


Montreal did good here.





3. Pittsburgh traded:

Mikael Granlund
Jeff Petry at 4.6875 million 2
Jan Rutta
Casey DeSmith
AHL Prospect Nathan Legare
Pittsburgh's 2024 1st round pick with Top 10 Protection
Pittsburgh's 2025 2nd round pick

for

2023 Norris Trophy Winner Erik Karlsson at 10 million x 4
Rem Pitlick
ECHL Prospect Dillon Hamaliuk
San Jose's 2026 3rd round pick


Pittsburgh did better than San Jose, but worse than Montreal.




In conclusion,

There is way too much value in this trade for Montreal and not enough for San Jose.

And Pittsburgh has about as much to lose in this trade as San Jose did when they acquired Karlsson 5 years ago.




The Montreal Canadiens win the trade.
Forum: NHL TradesAug. 6, 2023 at 12:19 p.m.
Thread: (PIT/MTL/SJS) - Granlund, Rutta, Petry, DeSmith, Légaré, 2024 1st (PIT), 2025 2nd (PIT) for Pitlick, Hoffman for Karlsson, Hamaliuk, 2026 3rd (SJS)
Interesting trade, not quite sure what Pitt is thinking with the whole retaining thing? They get SJ to retain 1.5M off EK but then turn around and retain 1.5M off Petry for MTL? It’s a complete wash , makes no sense.

Dubas wants so bad to win NOW with Pitt to prove himself.. it’s either going 1 of two ways.. either Pitt wins a cup .. which is probably only a 2 year window left or they miss playoffs again/have major injuries and now they’re stuck with paying two RD 16M for the next 4+ years , not a good look. Dubas will be Axed from the league if this doesn’t work out. His handling of contracts and inability to get Toronto over the top with that talent .. what makes u think he can do it with 4 aging 35+ year old star players ? He better be praying.

EK thrives off being “THE GUY” there’s a reason why he struggled when Burns was still in SJ. You can’t have two OFD with EK, he needs to be out there on every PP playing 26+ minutes a night.

SJ comes away as the winner in this all. In 2 years from now it’ll be even more obvious. They dump EK’s huge contract, get 1st round pick and two proven serviceable 2/3rd liners that are responsible 2 way forwards who can teach SJ’s young guys coming up. If both healthy Granlund and Hoff are 50 point guys . Only thing I would’ve like to see is SJ get a B+ or higher level prospect out of this. They only took Rutta because Pitt needed to dump some cap. SJ is 3-4 years away from being a contender again, this window they’ll be free off all bad contacts, Burns, EK, Vlasic, etc They’ll have some solid prospects coming in and will have a ton of cap space to sign some FA’s.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 2, 2023 at 7:34 p.m.
Thread: try this
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>poeticentropy</b></div><div><img class="for_img" src="https://media.tenor.com/dlLdNF3Z-CUAAAAd/the-big-lebowski-thats-like-your-opinion-man.gif" alt="the-big-lebowski-thats-like-your-opinion-man.gif">

Do you have a crystal ball that tells the future? If not, don't treat your guesses as absolutes. Maybe his value goes up or stays about the same after showing that he's healthy and close to being on pace for a repeat performance before 2024 TDL so that other teams become more comfortable taking the risk that he's going to last through his contract. He did 82 games last season because he fully recovered from the injuries that were bothering him years before and you could tell because most of his game revolves around his skating ability.

If you're going to watch your team lose it's more entertaining to see a star on your team do something cool during the game than just watch your team full of AHLers get obliterated. Yes casual sharks fans just care about winning but most season ticket holders want to go to the game and get some entertainment out of it. Sharks without Karlsson are going to watch their team lose plus not have the entertainment of EK. He's a big name and very marketable.</div></div>

First, love the meme. Great film!

Oh, it is 100% my opinion. I'm sorry if it comes across as me stating facts. I in no way think I know something the rest of you don't.

It's possible he has another great season of 82 games and teams are clamoring (with the increased cap) for his services. History would bet against it but it's possible.

I will push back on the fans. I watched the first season of Crosby. That team had Lemieux, Fleury, Palffy, and a mix of vets and young players. The Pens couldn't give those tickets away. Why? Because they couldn't win games. Winning sells tickets, no matter if the team has stars or not.
Forum: NHL TradesJun. 27, 2023 at 10:25 p.m.
Thread: (WPG/LAK) - Dubois for Iafallo, Kupari, Vilardi, 2024 2nd (MTL)
I’m a little surprised that people are saying this is such a big win for Winnipeg. It’s not a bad return, and it could work out really well for them, but a few things have tempered my enthusiasm:

1) Expectations were low, but this was a sign and trade, so the return should be better than if Dubois was unsigned or eligible to become a UFA in a year, because there is no uncertainty for LA. They know they’re getting a long-term asset and exactly how much cap hit it’s going to cost them.

2) The only player the Jets got who’s signed is Iaffalo. He’s a useful player, and he’ll help them, but at $4M cap hit, it’s likely that LA needed to throw him in to clear cap space for Dubois. He was probably a neutral asset at best (i.e., they wouldn’t have had to pay to get rid of him, but they wouldn’t have got much for him in a separate trade either).

3) The key piece for Winnipeg is Vilardi, but there’s a lot of uncertainty around him. He’s only played one full NHL season – the short covid season – but perhaps more importantly, he’s an unsigned RFA with arbitration rights coming off his best season. That’s exactly what Dubois was! They don’t know what it’s going to cost to sign him or how long they’ll be able to keep him around.

4) Kupari is also unsigned. He hasn’t shown much at the NHL level so far, and he doesn’t have arbitration rights, so I don’t think they need to worry about having to give him a big raise, but he’s no longer waivers exempt, so he’ll have to develop quickly at the NHL level or they could lose him for nothing if they try to send him down.

I also disagree with the claims that LA got fleeced. They got the player they wanted with long-term cost certainty without giving up any major assets. You may not like the player or agree with the signing, but in terms of what it took to acquire him, I think they did fine.