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sammy_daws1997

Member Since
May 4, 2018
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Toronto Maple Leafs
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Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 11, 2021 at 5:13 p.m.
Thread: Best Contracts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CMcAvoy73</b></div><div>Well, if he re-signs. That’s a question now. And any negotiations will be against the entire league, not against an offer sheet. He reportedly was asking for 13.4 on an 8 year deal, so he didn’t have issues signing with term, but he wanted a crazy amount of money. Guys going into a UFA contract always get paid more than RFAs. 5 years was a bad choice for the leafs.</div></div>

No, he obviously did not have an issue with term. He wants to stay in Toronto, has said that previously and recently, and wanted long term as you said.

Dubas couldnt make that happen as the leafs (obviously) need the lower AAV so Matthews agreed to a lower AAV in exchange for less term. If he signs an 8 year deal at $15M AAV as his next contract that is still good value for the leafs. He is one of the best players in the league and arguably the best goal scorer in the league now and definitely the best goal scorer of his generation.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 11, 2021 at 5:09 p.m.
Thread: Best Contracts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CMcAvoy73</b></div><div>I don’t think you can put Matthews in that category because his deal only bought out one year of UFA. I definitely get it with McDavid, because they locked him up for 8 years, but Matthews deal seems kind of awful to me. 3 years would have been great because they would still have his RFA rights. 8 years would have been great because they would have locked up the player to max term. 5 years without really enjoying any discount kinda stinks.</div></div>

Mcdavids deal is the biggest steal of a contract of any forward in the league.. the only contract better than his is Makar. Mcdavid is so good, he would be a steal at the max AAV ($15M when he signed, 16.3M now) for the max term (8yr)

Matthews is also still a steal. Saying his deal is a bad deal because it isnt as good as Mcdavids isnt fair.

I will however say that the model i based this on doesnt account for term very well. It focusses on value in a given year. It spits out that Matthews had a value of $22M this past season and Mcdavid had a value of $19.8M this year. It is heavily stats based and obviously is biased towards goal scoring rather than assists but is fairly accurate imo (not my model though). It then applies their performance to an age curve to predict their output over the remainder of the contract and assigns a total value to the contract.

In total Mcdavids contract is more valuable because of the longer term as you mentioned, but Matthews is still very good value. Obviously there is no way to predict future contracts or account for the stability/risk associated with bringing him to UFA early in his prime so you have to asses that yourself, but I still think Matthews is on a very good contract.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 23, 2021 at 1:03 p.m.
Thread: The Luckiest Team of 2021
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alfie11</b></div><div>Doesn’t Soucy have an abnormally high PDO as well? I heard that mentioned on a podcast discussing Kraken picks recently.</div></div>

Sorry, I should have clarified this.

I only considered players with positive CF% and xGF% as that would indicate that the player was performing well.
Players with negative CF% and xGF% I wouldn't consider "Lucky" since their overall play wasnt great.

Soucy did have the highest 2nd highest PDO among defensemen with 10+ gp but he had a relative CF% of -7.46% and a relative xGF% of -0.87% so overall he was below average despite his high PDO. I cant consider him "Lucky" since his high PDO may be caused in part by his poor play (PDO doesnt differentiate between shot quality)..
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 8, 2021 at 8:49 a.m.
Thread: What would you pay for hometown boy and former 2nd overall pick Nolan Patrick
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Radu47</b></div><div>Nice to see a glass half full approach 🥃

I think he'll definitely right his ship

Maybe just to be a 40 pt player but hey not too shabs</div></div>

I mean, as a 18 and 19 year old he put up back to back 30 point seasons. In my mind that is the floor. I wouldnt be surprised if he put up a 50 point season at some point given the right opportunity.

This year was abysmal for him though at only a 14 point pace in 82 games... So the question is whether this season is an outlier or if something has happened to him causing a huge regression that he has trouble getting back from.. I would imagine it is the former, but it is still a small risk trading for him at this point.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 4, 2021 at 11:20 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 3, 2021 at 8:56 a.m.
Thread: Start developing and Marner rant
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GarthBrooks</b></div><div>Yes but Lecavalier got paid 7.7 which equates to whatever percentage Iunno the maths too good. And even that was bad because I think it’s safe to say St. Louis career ended better than Lecavalier. But say St. Louis got paid closer to Lecavalier like within a million, and then they signed Stamkos to close to that amount after his ELC (he signed a bridge I believe) (he’s the Tavares cap implication in this scenario), would that 2011 team made a run? I doubt they could afford to bring in the depth pieces they did. I get Dubas future brained it and signed them to these contracts thinking it would be more valuable as the cap moves up. I don’t blame the GM for trying something new if that was his plan. But it’s business he’s supposed to be negotiating contracts that would help the team in the long run. Now we have a window of 3-4 years before these guys hit free agency cause they weren’t signed long term which only favors the player in negotiations there is no way that helps the team signing them to that, we as fans buy tickets and merchandise to make this team one of the most profitable teams in the league and now we’re going to have to wait again. The team spent to the cap, these are all Dubas’ contracts, there’s no more Lou messed up the team, so far he has no track record of succeeding past what Lou did because he took the team to the 1st round as well and went 7 against Boston, Washington while Dubas couldn’t get us past the play in round last year and Montreal this year? The teams regressing, the North Division was just a smoke screen, the teams in it weren’t that good (or ravaged by covid), and next year we’re going to playing in a division with Boston, Tampa and Florida</div></div>

Lecavaliers $7.7M deal was 13.63% of the cap at the time which would be $11,108,450 per year today. And that was for 11 years as well at the age of 28... They are extremly comparable to Matthews and Marner in fact except they were about 6-7 years older. The main difference between them and the leafs today is that St. Louis and Lecavalier signed their contracts 4 years apart with large increases to the cap over that time. By the time Lecavalier signed his deal St. Louis was already 35 and on a deal that paid him only 9.33% of the cap instead of the 13.46% it was when he signed.. Stamkos was also still on his elc when they went on that run in 2011 so it is rediculous to compare that 2011 team and specifically his $900k cap hit to Tavares $11M and the current Leafs team.

If your point regarding Stamkos is to look to after he signed his 2nd deal worth 11.6% of the cap ($9,454,000 today) then you would be looking at aa scenario similarish to the Leafs today. That signing was right after their 2011 run and if you remember, the Lightning MISSED THE PLAYOFFS the next year and actually finished 3rd last 2 seasons later resulting in the 3rd overall pick...

The good point that you are making is actually that the biggest problem that Dubas has is that he is in the unfortunate position of signing 3 large value contracts right before an unprecedented pandemic which stopped any cap increases for a couple years. He also had to sign all 4 of his large value contracts within 2 years of each other.. Out of the 4 big value signings he made 2 of them are underpayments and 2 of them are slight overpayments but on shorter deals as to not kneecap the team long term.. Obviously if Matthews or Marner dont re-sign with the Leafs then the contracts are a failure, but neither you or I can predict the future..
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 2, 2021 at 4:46 p.m.
Thread: realistic offseason moves
Here are my thoughts on your opinions.

1. Firing Keefe fixes nothing. In fact I think he is an excelent coach. They do however need to change the assistant coaches as many of the systems run by Malhotra and Hakstoll were abysmal...

2. I really love the idea of getting Driedger and completely agree that we need a 1A 1B tandum next year. Driedger may price himself out though and him and Campbell would only have a combined 135 games or so which would be concerning..

3. Why would you trade Holl? Him and Muzzin was a great shut down pairing all season and playoffs.. He is great value at his current contract to imo.

4. Oleksiak would be great, but he had a great year in Dallas if i remember right so he should price himself out of leafs range ($1M or less). Either him or Benn would be fine. At the end of the day they would be replacing Bogosian and play the same style though so you're not really gaining anything

5. Kuraly is great, but at the end of the day it is still a depth signing and our depth guys this year were fine. If anything I think you would be better off not paying a 4th line winger $1.8M and instead get a guy like Simmonds or Perry who would sign for less than $1m

6. I like all those guys in the NHL as well
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 2, 2021 at 4:34 p.m.
Thread: Start developing and Marner rant
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>faulkmydzingel</b></div><div>In all honesty Marner is paid about 1.5 mill too much. If the Salary Cap had kept rising as well anticipated it would it wouldn't be as glaring. Matthews was paid about a million too much and 2 years to short on term. So now it is up to Dubas to find an extra 2.5 M in value for free. This is also the final year of Kessel on the books. Another 1.2 million. So it is darn close to 4 million that Dubas needs to find in value in other players to make up for these mistakes, his mistakes or not.

This year we got outrageous value on return for Spezza. I hope beyond reasoning that he comes back. Convincing a player like Getzlaf to sign for a low deal would be of extreme value. I said it at the start of the season that Montreal got the greatest bargain in Corey Perry however. He is a playoff performer.

Resigning Hyman is of top priority. Getting a solid tandem for Campbell. And acquiring yet again another grit type player who can go anywhere in the lineup. Foligno, Coleman, Jenner. Let Sandin continue to try and develop on the 3rd pairing. Brooks should play full time now (so happy about that too!). Hopefully another kid is ready to make an impact. Robertson in my mind has shown zero reason to be full time NHL ready. If other players such as Bogosion and Simmonds are available for cheap deals they bring value as well. Bogo was great for us in the playoffs.</div></div>

I think re-signing Bogo is also a priority to play with Sandin/Dermott. He would have to be about $1M or less though..
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 2, 2021 at 4:24 p.m.
Thread: Start developing and Marner rant
Ignoring his poor Playoffs, you can't take his regular season stats away from him by saying "he plays with Matthews"..

Marner put up similar stats with Tavares (also a star) but most importantly he did it with Bozak and Van Riemsdyk

As for the St. Louis comparison, he signed 2 contracts in the salary cap era. The first was at age 28 and was 6 years at 13.46% of the cap. This would be $10,969,900 per year over 6 years today... Keep in mind that this contract also took him to the age of 35 so it missed most of his prime, which Marners deal is not.. Despite this, the value is actually $900k above what Marner is being paid..

If you are however referring to his final contract, I dont think it is fair to compare a guy signing at the age of 22 to a guy signing at the age of 35 but nonetheless.. St. Louis signed a 4 year deal worth 9.47% of the cap, which would be $7,718,050 per year today. He would only have been making about $3M less than Marner and you get a 35-39 year old St. Louis vs a 22-28 year old Marner...

To blame Dubas for any of this mess is a bit crazy too. Not only does he have to sign his stars young because that is what the league is dictating now, but not even 3 years ago people were praising Marner for being the only "playoff player" the leafs had while jumping all over Willy. This year is now the complete opposite. This isnt to defend Marner though, because when you are being paid like he is then he needs to perform. My point is to defend Dubas as he made all the right moves.

Just a horrible take tbh..
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 18, 2021 at 4:01 p.m.
Thread: Team of Johns
This got me thinking about what is the most common first name in the NHL.. There are clearly not enough first name Johns to fill out a full roster so I wanted to figure out if any first names that could do this..

After some digging and excel magic, there are only 6 first names that appear 20+ times in the players who played at least one NHL (not including goalies). The names are

Alex / Alexander / Alexandre (25)
Nick / Nic / Nicholas / Nicklas / Nicolas / Nicolas (24)
Jacob / Jake / Jakob / Jakub / Jaccob (22)
Matt / Mathew / Mathieu / Matthew (20)
Mike / Michael / Micheal / Mikael / Mikey (20)

and my personal favorite since there is only ONE version of it..

Ryan (20)

As a side note, there are only 12 John / Johnny / Jon / Jonathan first names in the NHL players who played at least 1 game this year (not including goalies) and you have all of them (plus Toews since he did not play this year)