Joined: Apr 2017
This one goes immediately into my Top 20 signings for 2018. Not that it is without risk. On a short (1-2y) bridge, Theodore would have collected 3M to 3.5M AAV. Once the 3rd and 4th year get added it would be over 4M AAV. This does that and buys his first 3 years of unrestricted free agency as well, for barely more than 5M per year. Had they done a bridge and waited 2 years, that AAV could have easily topped 7M.
All of this is assuming Theodore develops into the Top-4 D-Man with 1st PP time that he is projected for. Given that he is almost there already, after barely 1 season of NHL experience, I think that one can be confident that he’ll get there. The bigger risk is injuries and their impact on a player (particularly concussions). But if we let that worry guide us we’d never have any deals made.
Seems like a trend to sign young D-Meb to long term deals right off their ELC’s. I’m talking about more than just the Top 20 D in the NHL but anyone who looks like he could be a top pairing guy. Just this summer there has been: Skjei (6y @ 5.25M), Theodore (7y @ 5.2M), and Hanifin (6y @ 4.95M). Given the extra year, I like this better than the other 2 deals for Skjei and Hanifin. I am sure one will look like more of a bust in 3/4 years, it’s just tough To know how these guys will all develop.