Why does everyone think Neccas is going to be so good? None of his numbers suggest he'll ever be more than a 25 goal 60 point guy.

Also great convo guys! Have a great long weekend and hopefully all this is just a footnote by Monday!

Everything you just said there was so bang on. Then you had to end it with Nylander is going to score 80 points.... Yeah, not likely.

Cane fans have a knack for making people larger than life. There was a guy during last preseason Cane fans somehow convince everyone he was a good piece to get Nylander and he ended up be claimed off waivers twice that year. Pesce is Bobby Orr, Hamilton is worth 18 first rounders and Aho is as good as McDavid. They build them up and people don't even notice, all other fans just accept it and move on. It's weird.

Mark my words brother!

Yeah Pesce too. like I'll admit I only watched him against the leafs this year and a few times in the playoffs. Didn't stand out to me at all. very solid, but nothing special. And yeah like you said, he's the GOAT according to many people on here, not even just canes fans.

Hmm...so then you don't think Marner's camp is hard headed enough to even sit til Nov. 28-29? Eh..
Marner should understand tho that if he does what Nylander did, he will hurt his bargaining power later, right?

Solid assessment of the current state of affairs. Well done.

Especially agree on the part on why Ferris/Dreger went silent. I think the narrative mighta smacked into reality.

He should replace kadri who is gone to Seattle soon anyway

Well that's the thing, he can't wait that long because the Leafs don't have the cap space to pay for the prorated deal. So it's essentially sign by day one or you are missing the year.

My limits on Marner ?

I was giving him 7 x 7,5M last summer ( with Nylander 6,8 and Matthews 10,5 , which is Eichels money tho he should get Draisaitls money in my opinion ) but then sh-t the fan, with Matthews getting paid 2M per 10 points where all the rest of the League is giving their franchise players 1M per 10 points ( if i banalise the $$ worth of contracts since the Cap era ). Marners camp was asking 8 x 9M last summer reportedlly ( on top of 61 + 69 ) and thats the money he should be getting this summer ( 61 + 69 + 94 ).

Im not buying C are better paid then W, if they perform better they should be paid more and in case of Marner - Matthews comparison thats a thing. Matthews 8 x 8,5M ( 9M max ) and Marner 8 x 9M would be mine contracts basing them on League comparables and how players are paid on their past performance and not what they will became as some ppl are justifying Matthews overpayment on this site.

If we make projections and build contracts on what will it be, who can asure me that the player who thinks hes worth 8 x 13M after 63 and 69 Seasons wont get hit injured LTIR style and Team will be stuck with his 13M on books.

I agree kids were unprotected and fleeced by Teams for too long, but current contracts are cancer wound for the Franchise who is atm in good shape to finally reach for Stanley. 2M overpayment for both Matthews and supposedlly Marner are costing Team a decent Defenceman at 4M.

So...then...
Let him sit the year? Lol

Nah, its just Ferris is threatening with offer-sheets which is their only leverage. After there will be none cause noone will overpay as Dubarelli did with Matthews, TML has upper hand in negotiations. They should remove reported 8 x 10 from the table after and squeez the kid to 7 x 9M. That would still be money he deserves production wise.

We were in same pickle here last year when the re-signing frenzy of "Big Three" begun and Nylander went into clinch, we went from greedy bas-ard, victim of his agent, dad and dog, to let him sit and think about it. I still believe delay was pre-set and proposed from Dubarelli and thats why he apologized to Nylander. That way he was able to overpay for 600K which didnt affect Seasons after 2019/2020.

Wouldn't all those deals be in four-first territory?

No, anything under roughly $10.57 is two firsts, a second and a third and only 18 teams qualify for that.

How do teams "qualify"? And all 3 of my proposals are in four-first territory, since the total value of the contract is divided by 5 if it's more than 5 years long.

Take a look at the Offer Sheet Calculator under the "Calculators" tab in the upper right-hand corner to see which teams don't qualify for the second-last category (all of them do for the top one/four firsts). I didn't realize that your $9.5 x 6 was/is over the threshold.

Yeah. So unless Marner signs for 9,5x5 or lower AAV/term, the Leafs get 4 firsts.

No, it's 10.57. 9.5 x 6 = 57 / 5 = 11.4, hence over the limit. Marner signs for 10.25 x 5 and the compensation would be a first, second and third in one year and the first in the next year.

Well I don't think anyone's giving him 10+ on a 5-year deal.. but you're right on that.

So my rudimentary math skills tell me that any contract equaling or exceeding $53M over 5 or more years is in four-firsts territory -- even $8M x 7 years.

Very interesting point here!
People have not been thinking about the coming expansion draft and who the Leafs will want to leave unprotected.

Hmm...this point will make some of the smart thinkers try to plan for the future. And to think it's not even Marner related Lol