Forums/Armchair-GM

Domi for 8th overall is a bad idea

Created by: Sabres923
Initial Creation Date: Jul 23, 2020
Published: Jul 23, 2020 at 2:49
Team: 2020-21 Buffalo Sabres
Team Explanation
Yes Buffalo needs a 2nd line center, but they need to be smart trading 8th overall in a stacked forward class that has a lot of good centers like Lundell, Rossi, Perfetti etc Domi just isn’t consistent enough, he had one great season the rest has been average 40-50 points now that’s good, but that’s not game changing good. If Buffalo just gets Domi that still aren’t a playoff team. With a rookie GM with no experience it doesn’t seem likely he will make a huge splash, in trades or free agency.
Buyouts
  • Cody Hodgson: $791,667
  • Christian Ehrhoff: $0
Retained Salary Transactions
  • Eric Staal: $1,625,000 (50%)
  • Taylor Hall: $4,000,000 (50%)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2020
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
DAL
2021
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
2022
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
10$81,500,000$54,129,167$1,487,500$3,487,500$27,370,833
Left WingCenterRight Wing
BUF
Skinner, Jeff
$9,000,000
LW, RW
NMC
UFA - 7
BUF
Eichel, Jack
$10,000,000
C
UFA - 6
BUF
Okposo, Kyle
$6,000,000
RW
NTC
UFA - 3
BUF
Johansson, Marcus
$4,500,000
C, LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
BUF
McCabe, Jake
$2,850,000
LD
UFA - 1
BUF
Ristolainen, Rasmus
$5,400,000
RD
UFA - 2
BUF
Hutton, Carter
$2,750,000
G
UFA - 1
BUF
Dahlin, Rasmus
$925,000
LD
RFA - 1
BUF
Miller, Colin
$3,875,000
RD
UFA - 2
BUF
Jokiharju, Henri
$925,000
RD
RFA - 1

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Jul 23, 2020 at 2:58
#1
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 3,469
Likes: 1,266
It's not just a horrible idea. It should be a fireable offense...
Sabres923 and gretzkyghosts liked this.
Jul 23, 2020 at 2:59
#2
Joined: Jun 2019
Posts: 13,894
Likes: 6,414
Yes, yes it is a bad idea
Sabres923 and gretzkyghosts liked this.
Jul 23, 2020 at 3:09
#3
Shibbal18
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 14,976
Likes: 4,157
Rossi and Perfetti are not going to be available at 8 unless some teams go well off the board, at least 2 teams. Lundell is over rated. Probably will be a good player down the road (5 years), i dont think hes worth the pedestal hes been given and would be a stretch to take him at 8. 8OA is a garbage pick. The best overall players available are not going to be in positions of need for Buffalo, and the players they need can probably be picked up in the teens. If they arent trading for an NHLer I think they should at least trade down and get a couple of prospects instead of 1 or maybe 2
CD282 liked this.
Jul 23, 2020 at 3:24
#4
Capfriendlyisamazing
Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 2,336
Likes: 572
Finally someone speaks out about these awful domi Deals for 8OA
Sabres923 and gretzkyghosts liked this.
Jul 23, 2020 at 3:32
#5
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 542
Likes: 254
From a BUF perspective, I think you should keep the pick no matter what is left on the board. But I don't agree with your description, yes Dom's had one great season and the rest was pretty average but he always had some real bad teams to play with, I think he can be a consistent 50-60 center. He made it to 72pts because of how well the team played together overall and I think he can easily do the same or close to it with a good team. That said, buffalo do t have the condition to make him repeat that kind of production anytime soon and MTL is in a place where they need to add to an already young core, not trading a player part of this core for an obscure pick that COULD become good in 2-3 years. So yeah, this trade is a bad idea for both team no matter how it looks value wise. BUF should keep accumulating blue chips prospects and continue to build slowly and MTL should look to fill an immediate need if they trade Domi and try to add to an already ok core and a more than satisfying prospect pool.
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Jul 23, 2020 at 3:38
#6
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 11,183
Likes: 4,031
If you look at numbers, they are decent. But if you look with your eyes him play, you’ll say Yes he is worth more than Lundell Quinn because Rossi Perfetti will be gone before 8th OA
Jul 23, 2020 at 3:43
#7
Thread Starter
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 3,240
Likes: 1,669
Quoting: GMs
If you look at numbers, they are decent. But if you look with your eyes him play, you’ll say Yes he is worth more than Lundell Quinn because Rossi Perfetti will be gone before 8th OA


This years draft could be unpredictable, I do believe Lundell will be available at 8.
Jul 23, 2020 at 3:47
#8
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 2,034
Likes: 582
Quoting: Shibbal18
Rossi and Perfetti are not going to be available at 8 unless some teams go well off the board, at least 2 teams. Lundell is over rated. Probably will be a good player down the road (5 years), i dont think hes worth the pedestal hes been given and would be a stretch to take him at 8. 8OA is a garbage pick. The best overall players available are not going to be in positions of need for Buffalo, and the players they need can probably be picked up in the teens. If they arent trading for an NHLer I think they should at least trade down and get a couple of prospects instead of 1 or maybe 2


Either one of them could be there.

The four best prospects are Laf, Byfied, Stützle and Raymond

Then there is Perfetti, Drysdale, Sanderson, Holtz and Rossi. I think Detroit could go with Perfetti instead of Raymond because they probably select a centre, then Raymond is available at 5, New Jersey would probably go with a winger and will probably select Holtz. So chances are high that Anaheim would pick Drysdale leaving Rossi to Buffalo
Jul 23, 2020 at 4:16
#9
Ferda
Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 7,751
Likes: 3,169
Quoting: Riley816
It's not just a horrible idea. It should be a fireable offense...


Quoting: Shibbal18
Rossi and Perfetti are not going to be available at 8 unless some teams go well off the board, at least 2 teams. Lundell is over rated. Probably will be a good player down the road (5 years), i dont think hes worth the pedestal hes been given and would be a stretch to take him at 8. 8OA is a garbage pick. The best overall players available are not going to be in positions of need for Buffalo, and the players they need can probably be picked up in the teens. If they arent trading for an NHLer I think they should at least trade down and get a couple of prospects instead of 1 or maybe 2[/quote
Jul 23, 2020 at 4:22
#10
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 11,183
Likes: 4,031
Quoting: Gordon_Bombay
Either one of them could be there.

The four best prospects are Laf, Byfied, Stützle and Raymond

Then there is Perfetti, Drysdale, Sanderson, Holtz and Rossi. I think Detroit could go with Perfetti instead of Raymond because they probably select a centre, then Raymond is available at 5, New Jersey would probably go with a winger and will probably select Holtz. So chances are high that Anaheim would pick Drysdale leaving Rossi to Buffalo


So wrong here, Perfetti is a LW and the best prospects are Laf Byfield Stutzle after Rossi Perfetti Drysdale after Holtz Raymond after it drops to Sanderson Askarov Lundell Quinn
Jul 23, 2020 at 4:23
#11
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 11,183
Likes: 4,031
Quoting: Sabres923
This years draft could be unpredictable, I do believe Lundell will be available at 8.


Lundell isn’t going before 11 IMO like Shibbal said he IS overrated. Is probably going to Minnesota at 11
Jul 23, 2020 at 4:33
#12
Joined: Jan 2020
Posts: 6,653
Likes: 1,539
The guy you're getting at 8 is Holtz unless you guys go off the board after firing your scouting staff.

Personally I think the 8th OA pick is a pretty big drop off from the 7th OA pick where you get whoever's is left of Raymond, Rossi, Perfetti and Drysdale.

Regardless of this pick being overrated I wouldn't give any top 10 pick for Domi in this year's draft.
Jul 23, 2020 at 4:59
#13
Billy739
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 4,290
Likes: 1,062
I mean its not like Eichels so unhappy he's lashed out in the Media , o wait ...

BUF doesnt have a choice but to deal the pick for help today.
Yes you might draft a Rossi,Lundell ,ext who will take BUF 2-3 years to develop based on their systems history.

By that time Eichel will have left for a team that can give him a playoffs even in a frigged up season like this where 8 extra teams got in.

Domi may not be the fit but BUF has no choice .
Firing management and coaches to pretend you're making change kept him happy twice now
i dont see it working a 3rd time
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Jul 23, 2020 at 5:58
#14
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 2,034
Likes: 582
Quoting: GMs
So wrong here, Perfetti is a LW and the best prospects are Laf Byfield Stutzle after Rossi Perfetti Drysdale after Holtz Raymond after it drops to Sanderson Askarov Lundell Quinn


I very much disagree. Raymond is the 4th best prospect in this draft. He plays agianst much better competiton than the others and also plays for one of the best teams outside the NHL which limits his ice time, but he can be very good against his age group. I am sure you remeber the U18 WC when he dominated. goa ahed goal, equalizer in the 3rd as well as the goal in OT. Raymond is a great player and no one should be shocked if he goes 4th overall. He could fall a bit because he is no centre or D
Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan
The guy you're getting at 8 is Holtz unless you guys go off the board after firing your scouting staff.

Personally I think the 8th OA pick is a pretty big drop off from the 7th OA pick where you get whoever's is left of Raymond, Rossi, Perfetti and Drysdale.

Regardless of this pick being overrated I wouldn't give any top 10 pick for Domi in this year's draft.


The Devis should select Holtz, best SHL scorer since Markus Naslund and Peter Forsberg at that age (he is not quite as good as Raymond, but gets more ice time because Djurgardens is not Frölunda, but he is a great shooter)

He will be perfect on the wing of Hischer
Jul 23, 2020 at 7:05
#15
Billy739
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 4,290
Likes: 1,062
Quoting: Gordon_Bombay
I very much disagree. Raymond is the 4th best prospect in this draft. He plays agianst much better competiton than the others and also plays for one of the best teams outside the NHL which limits his ice time, but he can be very good against his age group. I am sure you remeber the U18 WC when he dominated. goa ahed goal, equalizer in the 3rd as well as the goal in OT. Raymond is a great player and no one should be shocked if he goes 4th overall. He could fall a bit because he is no centre or D

The Devis should select Holtz, best SHL scorer since Markus Naslund and Peter Forsberg at that age (he is not quite as good as Raymond, but gets more ice time because Djurgardens is not Frölunda, but he is a great shooter)

He will be perfect on the wing of Hischer


Raymond was basically the undisputed #2 before the year started
as each month passed he dropped to the rank of #4 among EU skaters and #6th-8th OA
The Pandemic was kind of a blessing for Raymond as it stopped the free fall he's faced this year after a stellar year before that.

Raymonds good but MTL was looking at him with their 9th OA pick as a real option because he's ranked behind Centers ,D and a German who pushed him aside for top Winger position. i say Raymond ends up in BUF 7th OA at best given the teams needs that have the 2-7th picks
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Jul 23, 2020 at 7:06
#16
Dumb trades are easy
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,753
Likes: 1,460
So what you are saying is that everything is fine in Buffalo, no need for a gritty top 6 center.

just building through top 10 draft picks, waiting 3-4 years for their development through losing culture and hoping for the best...How did that go for ya so far?

"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results."
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Jul 23, 2020 at 7:18
#17
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 2,034
Likes: 582
Quoting: Billy739
Raymond was basically the undisputed #2 before the year started
as each month passed he dropped to the rank of #4 among EU skaters and #6th-8th OA
The Pandemic was kind of a blessing for Raymond as it stopped the free fall he's faced this year after a stellar year before that.

Raymonds good but MTL was looking at him with their 9th OA pick as a real option because he's ranked behind Centers ,D and a German who pushed him aside for top Winger position. i say Raymond ends up in BUF 7th OA at best given the teams needs that have the 2-7th picks


That is only central scouting. Many still have him between 4 and 6. He is almost a year younger than Rossi, which should not be forgotten, as Rossi and Laf are the oldest top prosects. It is also likely that he has two full month to play in Sweden before the NHL draft. I am not so sure when the CHL is going to start.
Billy739 liked this.
Jul 23, 2020 at 7:30
#18
Billy739
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 4,290
Likes: 1,062
Quoting: Gordon_Bombay
That is only central scouting. Many still have him between 4 and 6. He is almost a year younger than Rossi, which should not be forgotten, as Rossi and Laf are the oldest top prosects. It is also likely that he has two full month to play in Sweden before the NHL draft. I am not so sure when the CHL is going to start.

That would make 3 wingers in the top 4 draft spots , is that what you're saying ?
Based on History , Teams needs with those picks ... i just cant see this .

Unless you're suggesting Raymond will go higher then the German Strutzle which is confusing given his stand out play

6th is really a hard sell but i guess is semi believable if you ignore the team at 6th OA's needs entirely but any higher is just not logical

I mean Raymonds good , they all are but outside Lafreniere ,Strutzle and Drysdale IMO the other top 10 ranked players are all similarly projects as top 6 players leaning more towards 2nd line or pair players who long term will likely rise. I believe if you looked at who owns those picks factoring in what they need you'll find Raymond falls to 7th at the earliest as well
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Jul 23, 2020 at 7:41
#19
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 2,034
Likes: 582
Quoting: Billy739
That would make 3 wingers in the top 4 draft spots , is that what you're saying ?
Based on History , Teams needs with those picks ... i just cant see this .

Unless you're suggesting Raymond will go higher then the German Strutzle which is confusing given his stand out play

6th is really a hard sell but i guess is semi believable if you ignore the team at 6th OA's needs entirely but any higher is just not logical

I mean Raymonds good , they all are but outside Lafreniere ,Strutzle and Drysdale IMO the other top 10 ranked players are all similarly projects as top 6 players leaning more towards 2nd line or pair players who long term will likely rise. I believe if you looked at who owns those picks factoring in what they need you'll find Raymond falls to 7th at the earliest as well


I think team needs are like that:
Detroit: everything expect RHD, because they really suck everywhere else
Ottawa: best player available
Anaheim: D or winger
New Jersey: D or winger (They are solid down the middle)
Buffalo: C or winger

It all depends how they see those prospects.
Jul 23, 2020 at 8:13
#20
Shibbal18
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 14,976
Likes: 4,157
Quoting: Gordon_Bombay
Either one of them could be there.

The four best prospects are Laf, Byfied, Stützle and Raymond

Then there is Perfetti, Drysdale, Sanderson, Holtz and Rossi. I think Detroit could go with Perfetti instead of Raymond because they probably select a centre, then Raymond is available at 5, New Jersey would probably go with a winger and will probably select Holtz. So chances are high that Anaheim would pick Drysdale leaving Rossi to Buffalo


Raymond is not a concensus top for pick, Detroit will take Perfetti or Drysdale, Ottawa takes Perfetti, Drysdale, or Rossi, leaving one of Perfetti, Drysadale, or Rossi for Anaheim Raymond or Holtz goes to NJ. One of those teams would have to buy into Sanderson and thats wouldnt even guarantee Perfetti or Rossi makes it to 8
Jul 23, 2020 at 8:15
#21
Shibbal18
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 14,976
Likes: 4,157
Quoting: Billy739
I mean its not like Eichels so unhappy he's lashed out in the Media , o wait ...

BUF doesnt have a choice but to deal the pick for help today.
Yes you might draft a Rossi,Lundell ,ext who will take BUF 2-3 years to develop based on their systems history.

By that time Eichel will have left for a team that can give him a playoffs even in a frigged up season like this where 8 extra teams got in.

Domi may not be the fit but BUF has no choice .
Firing management and coaches to pretend you're making change kept him happy twice now
i dont see it working a 3rd time


This excuse is played out and ignorant. Its only used to justify bad takes
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Jul 23, 2020 at 8:33
#22
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 12,877
Likes: 3,776
Quoting: Sabres923
This years draft could be unpredictable, I do believe Lundell will be available at 8.


Lundell won't be "game changing good" either though. And you'll have to wait a couple of years just to get anything out of him. By then Eichel will be gone.

Adams has to improve the team significantly before next training camp and trading the 8OA pick is the easiest way of doing that.
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Jul 23, 2020 at 8:36
#23
Shibbal18
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 14,976
Likes: 4,157
Quoting: GMs
If you look at numbers, they are decent. But if you look with your eyes him play, you’ll say Yes he is worth more than Lundell Quinn because Rossi Perfetti will be gone before 8th OA


Lundell is easily there at 8, he should be there in the teens but a team will get desperate and take him early
Jul 23, 2020 at 8:43
#24
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 12,877
Likes: 3,776
You are WAY overvaluing the draft pick and WAY overestimating the Sabres ability to get that pick right.

Between 2001 and 2015 there were 27 forwards taken with picks 8-10. If we rearrange them by P/GP performance we can see the odds of getting a difference-maker:

Superstar (1.00+ P/GP): 0/27 = 0%
Elite (0.75 - 0.99): 2/27 = 7.4%
Top-6 (0.50 - 0.74): 11/27 = 40.7%
Bottom-6 (< 0.50): 14/27 = 51.9%

High picks are great, but (cap aside) if you have a chance to trade your #8 pick for an established player in his early 20's who scores 0.67 P/GP you shouldn't be so dismissive of the idea. Only 2 of the players in the Top-6 range matched or exceeded 0.67 P/GP, meaning that you typically have a 14.8% chance of getting a player equal to or better (offensively) than Domi with that pick. Never mind that you'll have to wait 2-3 years for that player to make an impact whereas Domi will show up at training camp in December, ready to go.

I'm only using Domi as an example because you mentioned him. 8OA could land you Cirelli or another young center. It doesn't have to be Domi.

Of course, it depends on who is available there and whether the Sabres scouting staff (lol) feel that player can be a 1 in 7 hole shot, but to dismiss the notion of trading the pick so hastily is foolish.
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Jul 23, 2020 at 9:35
#25
Dumb trades are easy
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,753
Likes: 1,460
Quoting: CD282
You are WAY overvaluing the draft pick and WAY overestimating the Sabres ability to get that pick right.

Between 2001 and 2015 there were 27 forwards taken with picks 8-10. If we rearrange them by P/GP performance we can see the odds of getting a difference-maker:

Superstar (1.00+ P/GP): 0/27 = 0%
Elite (0.75 - 0.99): 2/27 = 7.4%
Top-6 (0.50 - 0.74): 11/27 = 40.7%
Bottom-6 (< 0.50): 14/27 = 51.9%

High picks are great, but (cap aside) if you have a chance to trade your #8 pick for an established player in his early 20's who scores 0.67 P/GP you shouldn't be so dismissive of the idea. Only 2 of the players in the Top-6 range matched or exceeded 0.67 P/GP, meaning that you typically have a 14.8% chance of getting a player equal to or better (offensively) than Domi with that pick. Never mind that you'll have to wait 2-3 years for that player to make an impact whereas Domi will show up at training camp in December, ready to go.

I'm only using Domi as an example because you mentioned him. 8OA could land you Cirelli or another young center. It doesn't have to be Domi.

Of course, it depends on who is available there and whether the Sabres scouting staff (lol) feel that player can be a 1 in 7 hole shot, but to dismiss the notion of trading the pick so hastily is foolish.


happyhappy^THIS GUY GETS IT!

OMG thank you so much for explaining, in a far better way that I could ever do, how first round draft picks are not all equal and generally far less valued than an established NHL player. This notion is generaly not understood on Capfriendly.

Where did you take your stats? I might steal them.
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