Now that the Leafs are back in the 1st round of the 2020 NHL draft, I wanted to go over options for the 15th overall draft slot, because there are a number of ways they could draft.
My top D list, overall, is as follows:
1 - Jamie Drysdale (RHD)
2- Jake Sanderson (LHD)
3- Kaiden Guhle (LHD) /Braden Schneider (RHD)
4 - Justin Barron (RHD)
I think that the hockey community in general believes the Leafs will draft out of need with their top pick, and not necessarily draft the best player available. It's why I've seen a ton of mock drafts with either Schneider or Guhle as the Leafs pick. Let's dive in a little.
My assumptions leading up to the Leaf's pick is that both Drysdale and Sanderson will for sure be unavailable, so we will start with Kaiden Guhle.
If the Leafs were trying to draft the best defender available and didn't care about handedness (which always seems to be a talking point in Toronto) or about ETA to the NHL, I think the Leafs would go with Kaiden Guhle. He's a good all-around defender with a bit of a nasty edge, top-4 potential at minimum, good skater (especially for his 6'3 frame), great size (which he will still need to work into) and surprising good offensively with above average hockey IQ. Like a lot of other scouts out there, I believe Guhle will at least need 1 more season in the WHL to work on his game, if not at least another 2 full years of developmental hockey.
The safe pick at the spot, provided he is still available, would be Braden Schneider. I call him safe because he plays a very solid defensive game, hits hard, plays rough and with an edge, and has a good shot, although he tends not to use it a lot. The kid is a good skater for his size (6'2), but could certainly improve his mobility (Guhle, in my mind, is the better skater). He is one of the oldest kids in this draft as well. A lot of scouts seem to agree with me that provided a team had the patience to work with him through an NHL season, he could potentially start the 2020-21 season as a full-time 3rd pairing NHL defenseman. Looking at the potential of a Sandin-Schneider 3rd pairing Leafs combo seems awfully good to me. The question will be, do the Leafs draft safe, do they shoot for the stars, or as I will get to in a second, will they move down in the 1st round and gain further assets?
My final defender thought here is Justin Barron. At one point, he was considered a top-10 pick in this draft, if not a top-5, but after he suffered a nasty injury this past year, in combination with other defenders improving, his stock has dropped quite a bit. There is also the issue of the fact that without a draft combine this year, a guy like Barron, who I still believe has high upside, is harder to judge without more post-injury looks and evaluation. I think at the 15th spot, Barron would for sure be available. He might have the best all-around upside of a defender in the draft , definitely better than Guhle (obviously, in my opinion), but his injury, which I believe was a blood clot, will definitely worry some teams. If the Leafs wanted to take their chances, they could look to dropping down the first round in a deal like the 15th overall pick and Andreas Johnsson to Ottawa for their 1st (22nd overall pick) and their 2nd (33rd overall), provided they were confident they could get Barron at either 22 (more likely) or 33 (less likely). I am pretty confident Barron will get drafted in the 1st round. For me, Barron has the most upside outside of Drysdale and Sanderson, but he is obviously comes with risk. I also think he will need another year or 2 in development hockey before any team considers him NHL-ready.
If the Leafs were to draft the best player available at the 15th overall, they might very well look at one of the high-end forwards. For the record, it is a lot harder to predict where these forwards will end up, but this is my list of forwards that may just be available at 15:
1 - Jack Quinn (I think he doesn't get past Edmonton at 14, but there's always a chance)
2 - Dawson Mercer
3 - Dylan Holloway
4 - Connor Zary
5 - Henrix Lapierre
6 - Jacob Perrault
Unlike the defenders, who I went into in far more detail, I will keep this more brief. I do think the Leafs look to a defenseman at 15 at the end of the day, but each of the 6 forwards mentioned offer varying levels of upside, depth center (which the Leafs lack after Matthews and Tavares), scoring potential, excellent skating and good to great levels of hockey IQ. From what I've seen and read, it sounds like each of these guys will need more time in development hockey and in the case of Holloway, he may be in the NCAA program for a number of years. In the cases of Lapierre and Perrault, both already have a great knack for playing 2-way hockey.
In the end, the Leafs should come out of this with a good prospect. However, considering the stop to minor league hockey plus no combine, it will be harder for all teams, including Toronto, to properly (or at least do it better) evaluate these prospects.
You named one of my top 5! (Sanderson may be like 4th or 5th, that group of d men is close imo, whether Roy want the extremely risky, but much higher ceiling guys in Jurmo or Wallinder, or the safer guy in Sanderson, or a few in between risk/reward guys) and i doubt more than 2 in my top 10
drafting for need is stupid, and even more stupid when the player won't be in the nhl for 3-5 years. Best player every time, and there are a lot of better players than the d that will be available after drysdale and Sanderson
Barron worries me as what happened to him this year is very similar to liligren and im not in the mood for another project
Sanderson is a LD and we dont need more of those
Ghule is also a LD which sucks cause projections have him playing like Parayko
Schneider i feel is the perfect choice. Plays a tonne of minutes, plays a physical game, blocks shots, sure needs to work on his offense but still could fight for an NHL job this year.
I think Schneider is the obvious pick if he's available. Big, two-way RHD who could step into the NHL next season. If he;s gone, I'm a huge fan of Rodion Amirov. Definitely a few years away but his defensive upside looks very good and we know he can score. He's my pick for the Blackhawks at 17, so please leave him for us
Otherwise, gotta go with the best guy available. If Quinn, Jarvis, Mercer or Sanderson slip, take them.
Drysdale will be long gone at 15 and then likely another 2 defensemen will also go before we pick. This leaves based on your list Barron and Schnieder or Guhle.
I personally like Guhle the best but he is also the only LHD out of those 3 so probably better off taking one of the others.
What about Askarov??
Best goalie in the draft ranked right about where we pick and goalies tend to slide a bit. The league is seeing an invasion of young stud russian goalies (Samsonov/Serokin/Shesterkin) and Askarov has been brought up the same as all those guys.
Most importantly, no matter who we draft it will be at least 2 seasons before they see a glimpse of the NHL, and Freddy is a UFA that will be likely too expensive for us next summer.
I love freddy as much as anyone, but if he wants $10M like he probably will then he is pricing himself out of Toronto. Why not bring in a high HIGH end replacement.
Sorry to say but Braden schneider a RD is #1 on the possible draft choices for the leafs followed by probably Askarov then your list. Edmonton's priority is probably Quinn, Jarvis, Holloway, and maybe mercer but hopefully not.
Agree with those saying that Schneider is the obvious pick. However, I would be shocked if Dubas makes this pick.
Why draft a d man hoping that he can maybe make his debut when Matthews has a year left, and make an impact when Matthews is in his first year of his new deal, maybe with the leafs?
The pick is an asset. It’s worth way more than Kapanen, so Dubas did well. I think adding a piece on the back end could justify taking one more shot at it with the big four.
This is a solid draft to move up if you can help it. If a guy like lundell falls within range you gotta try.
Ive even seen a couple mock drafts where rossi falls to 10ish and that would be a no brainer to go for. Not that i think he does.
The upside of a precieved deep draft is lots of teams think they can get similar value later and want to pull the dubas style trade back. Perfect atmosphere to move up even a spot or 5 and get a real difference maker
TML window for parade is from 2019 / 2020 to 2022 / 2023, fielding 2020 Draftee and Hållander in 2022 Season for the first time wont help to that Task unless draftee pans out to be Dahlin and Hållander second coming of P.Forsberg.
Justin Barron could end up being Morgan Reilly lite. Injured in his draft year so his stock drops for no reason
Justin Barron had blood clot issues and had to stop playing hockey for a bit. The same exact thing happened to Ryan Mantha a big right shot defense. He went blind while he was playing hockey due to a blood clot now hes just a wasted pick.
Justin Barron had blood clot issues and had to stop playing hockey for a bit. The same exact thing happened to Ryan Mantha a big right shot defense. He went blind while he was playing hockey due to a blood clot now hes just a wasted pick.
didnt know about Barron having blood clots. Those are scary and can be fatal. I hope its not something that ends his career. Stamkos had them too so its not a guarantee he'll be a waste
drafting for need is stupid, and even more stupid when the player won't be in the nhl for 3-5 years. Best player every time, and there are a lot of better players than the d that will be available after drysdale and Sanderson
Schneider should be in the NHL next year, so it's not a 3-5 year wait on him. Holloway would be probably be my forward pick, provided he's available. He has a high ceiling and fills out at C nicely.
Barron worries me as what happened to him this year is very similar to liligren and im not in the mood for another project
Sanderson is a LD and we dont need more of those
Ghule is also a LD which sucks cause projections have him playing like Parayko
Schneider i feel is the perfect choice. Plays a tonne of minutes, plays a physical game, blocks shots, sure needs to work on his offense but still could fight for an NHL job this year.
Barron, I believe had a blot clot issue, where Liljegren had mono. 2 very separate issues. If you draft for best player, the Leafs could very well take a LHD, or they could they could Holloway, or another C that projects a high ceiling. Schneider is the safe choice in all of this and he should be in the NHL this upcoming season, or at least, could handle being in the NHL this upcoming season.
Knowing Dubas he will probably trade down for additional picks. This makes sense if we are targeting a defenseman.
I like the idea of moving up a couple spots to draft Askarov as we don't have any high end goalie prospects.
It seems Dubas may have his eye on a couple prospects as he was calling teams specifically asking for a 1st round pick.
Askarov does not get past Carolina in my opinion. They need a bonafide number one. I would also imagine Oilers are highly interested. To trade up might not be worth it when staying put, or even trading down, get's you as good, if not a better overall player, if you are talking about best available, over positional need.
Barron, I believe had a blot clot issue, where Liljegren had mono. 2 very separate issues. If you draft for best player, the Leafs could very well take a LHD, or they could they could Holloway, or another C that projects a high ceiling. Schneider is the safe choice in all of this and he should be in the NHL this upcoming season, or at least, could handle being in the NHL this upcoming season.
yeah thats my idea. But hey we could still get Barron as he may drop to the 2nd round and we get a steal. Could u picture
r1-schneider
r2 -barron
basically 2 rhd of the future with Schneider being like sandin and Barron being ready later on which is fine
Justin Barron could end up being Morgan Reilly lite. Injured in his draft year so his stock drops for no reason
Prior to his injury, I would have said Justin Barron projects higher than Rielly, especially defensively. Barron is a great skater, and may not be as good as Rielly yet, but his offensive upside, great shot, good edge work and solid hockey IQ had him initially projected as a top-pairing guy at the start of the 2019-20 season and easily a top-5 overall pick. If the Leafs were sure they could get him, at say early 20s, I'd have them wheel and deal to collect some additional assets and pieces as well as draft Barron.
I think Schneider is the obvious pick if he's available. Big, two-way RHD who could step into the NHL next season. If he;s gone, I'm a huge fan of Rodion Amirov. Definitely a few years away but his defensive upside looks very good and we know he can score. He's my pick for the Blackhawks at 17, so please leave him for us
Otherwise, gotta go with the best guy available. If Quinn, Jarvis, Mercer or Sanderson slip, take them.
I would take Holloway over Mercer and Jarvis, as far as forwards. He projects as a top center with great speed, some grit, and high offensive ability, not to mention Leafs are quite thin at quality centers in their prospect system, but I would take Sanderson over all of those guys you mentioned, including Quinn. I like Quinn's game a lot, but I don't see him being available at 15.
Ian Scott.... no, don’t think dubas trades down...
To the original OP. What makes you think the leafs will have that puck come draft day?
You mean the pick, not puck, I am assuming? The Leafs, perhaps more than any other team, understand the difficulties of navigating through this cap, especially with the new CBA now signed. It is so much more cost effective to develop a good young player, then trade for one or even sign one come UFA when contracts are already usually so high. Developing is something the Leafs have gotten quite good at, and ELC deals, bridge deals, etc. will be the lifeblood of the Leafs for a while as they deal with this cap situation and massive contracts of their top-3 forwards. This is over and above the fact that Morgan Rielly is set to become a UFA in 2 seasons, and as things are looking now, they are going to have an awfully hard time signing him unless they made some drastic cap decisions over the next 2 seasons. However, if they had a quality, or even great, prospect NHL ready by then that they drafted in the 2020 draft, the pressure to fill a potential void there, or add complementary pieces, diminishes greatly. And I almost forgot to address the expansion draft. All 2020 drafted players will be protected, another benefit.
Justin Barron had blood clot issues and had to stop playing hockey for a bit. The same exact thing happened to Ryan Mantha a big right shot defense. He went blind while he was playing hockey due to a blood clot now hes just a wasted pick.
Just a heads up and FYI on Barron and the injury. Although he was out for all of December and January, he returned near the end of February and played in March before the season was cancelled. Certainly, blood cots can be a career-altering and ongoing issue. If he was still available at 44th overall, which I doubt, that to me would be a huge steal for the Leafs.
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