Habs value chart for Dubois

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: Blazingbat11

Team: 2022-23 Montreal Canadiens

Initial Creation Date: Jul. 18, 2022

Published: Jul. 18, 2022

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Let's start things off with the current impasse between Cheveldayoff and Hughes. Until the Jets back down from their rumored asking price of a 1 for 1, Suzuki for PLD, nothing will get done and PLD will remain a Jet and MTL will wait 2 years. At the moment there's no reason for WIN to back down from those demands, but since this is cap friendly, let's deal with the hypothetical that Cheveldayoff is ok with a package deal now.

Habs would essentially be looking at purchasing 2 years worth of Dubois. Now this is still incredibly expensive for a 24 year old top 6 Center. So, IMO, MTL would need to include 1 or 2 "premium" assets + non-cap dump roster player(s) to make a deal acceptable for the Jets to budge.

So let's determine what are the untouchables and the "premium" assets for the Habs (all prospects picked in the 2022 draft have been excluded) :

Untouchables / deal breakers:
- Nick Suzuki
- Cole Caufield
- MTL 2023 1st rd pick unprotected. (Let's all be honest here, there is a zero % chance MTL offers their 1st with no protection)
- MTL 2024 1st rd pick unprotected. (This one could possibly fall into the "premium" asset section, not sure yet)

"Premium" assets:
- MTL 2023 1st rd pick (top 10 protected).
- MTL 2024 1st rd pick (top 5 protected. Lowered the protection amount since 2023 draft is considered a super draft).
- FLA 2023 1st rd pick unprotected. Odds are that it will be a late 1st (20s +).
- Kaiden Guhle
- Kirby Dach (even though he's a roster player, I'm including him in the "premium" asset section due to his age, and what the Habs paid to acquire him)
- Justin Barron
- Sean Farrell

For Clarification, not all the "preimum" assets are of equal worth. But I firmly believe this is the cream of the Habs crop (again, excluding 2022 draft choices...so far Slafkovsky and even Hutson would fall in the untouchable category, with maybe Mesar in the "premium" assets)

Habs still have plenty of other "solid" assets (Mailloux, Harris, Roy, Primeau, Kidney, Norlinder, Xhekaj, and all their 2nd rd picks), but none of these would really move the needle with regards to a trade for PLD.

Establishing non cap dump roster players that the Jets would be interested in....the only players I can think of are Dvorak, Anderson and Evans honestly.... Maybe Jets fans could add other players they would consider in this category?

After all this 1 or 2 more roster players would still need to be added to even out salary cap issues (Armia? Drouin?), but keep in mind these players would not add much value to the trade.

So there you have it. Let me know if you agree!

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Dubois, Pierre-Luc	8	$7,875,000
Dach, Kirby	2	$2,800,000
Primeau, Cayden	2	$950,000
Montembeault, Samuel	2	$950,000

Trades

MTL

Dubois, Pierre-Luc [RFA Rights]

WPG

Armia, Joel
Dvorak, Christian
2023 1st round pick (FLA)
2023 1st round pick (MTL)

Additional Details:

(MTL 2023 1st rd pick is top 10 protected)
(FLA 2023 1st rd pick is unprotected)

MTL

Future Considerations

ARI

Hoffman, Mike
2024 2nd round pick (COL)

Buyouts

Karl Alzner: $833,333

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2023
2024
2025

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$82,500,000	$77,122,499	$1,132,500	$4,982,500	$5,377,501

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Slafkovsky, Juraj $950,000$950,000 ($3,500,000$4M) RW, LW RFA - 3	Suzuki, Nick $7,875,000$7,875,000 C UFA - 8	Caufield, Cole $880,833$880,833 ($850,000$850K) LW, RW UFA - 1
Drouin, Jonathan $5,500,000$5,500,000 LW, RW M-NTC UFA - 1	Dubois, Pierre-Luc $7,875,000$7,875,000 C UFA - 1	Anderson, Josh $5,500,000$5,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 5
Dadonov, Evgeni $2,500,000$2,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 1	Dach, Kirby $2,800,000$2,800,000 C, RW RFA - 4	Gallagher, Brendan $6,500,000$6,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 5
Pitlick, Rem $1,100,000$1,100,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Evans, Jake $1,700,000$1,700,000 C UFA - 3	Byron, Paul $3,400,000$3,400,000 LW, RW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Matheson, Michael $4,875,000$4,875,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 4	Savard, David $3,500,000$3,500,000 RD UFA - 3	Allen, Jake $2,875,000$2,875,000 G UFA - 1
Edmundson, Joel $875,000$875,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 2	Wideman, Chris $762,500$762,500 RD UFA - 2	Montembeault, Samuel $950,000$950,000 G UFA - 2
Guhle, Kaiden $863,333$863,333 ($420,000$420K) LD/RD RFA - 3	Barron, Justin $925,000$925,000 ($212,500$212K) RD RFA - 2	Primeau, Cayden $950,000$950,000 G RFA - 3

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Schueneman, Corey $750,000$750,000 LD/RD UFA - 1	Price, Carey $10,500,000$10,500,000 G NMC UFA - 4
Pezzetta, Michael $750,000$750,000 LW, RW UFA - 1

Jul. 18, 2022 at 12:49 p.m.

TheRealisticGuy

Habs4Ever

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 4,297

Likes: 1,737

This is pretty spot on except I do believe Kaiden Guhle falls in the untouchables after we traded Alex Romanov

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Jul. 18, 2022 at 12:50 p.m.

VladislavTretiak

Habs 7th round 1983

Joined: Dec. 2019

Posts: 1,623

Likes: 749

Your thinking is very well detailed but I think there's a price above which Montreal shouldn't move. Trading MTL 1st 2023 should be excluded from the offer.

I would suggest:
- Dvorak
- Armia
- Kidney or Mysak
- FLA 1st 2023

I understand that Winnipeg might believe that it's not enough to trade PLD but above that price I would just move on.

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Jul. 18, 2022 at 12:51 p.m.

ash

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 112

Likes: 32

Good write-up! As a Jets fan I think I'd be content with two premium assets + one solid asset as a return.

I'm assuming Justin Barron has to go the other way since WPG has Morgan Barron already. After that I'd like Dach, but would also understand if Chevy just wanted a 1st rounder instead. Depends if we're planning to rebuild or retool post-PLD I guess ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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Jul. 18, 2022 at 12:53 p.m.

Jetman

Jetsfan

Joined: Sep. 2017

Posts: 7,992

Likes: 2,589

As Winnipeg has a full pipeline of LHD, please exclude any prospects like that.

A Dvorak/Anderson is the roster player, Barron is probably the only prospect that the Jets would want(unless Dach is that) plus picks

Because of the situation, I do think the Jets will sign him for a year and see where everything lands come June 2023

Jul. 18, 2022 at 12:53 p.m.

SevenLeg

Hop on the Slaftrain

Joined: Feb. 2019

Posts: 16,188

Likes: 20,503

This is really done, agree with most of it. I'd personally put Guhle one tier above not because he's as valuable as Caufield & Suzuki, but because they simply can't afford to trade him. Thankfully I think he's not the main piece WPG would target as an LHD. But again, fantastic post.

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Jul. 18, 2022 at 12:54 p.m.

Blazingbat11

Thread Starter

Molson beer is meh

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 3,875

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Quoting: VladislavTretiak

Honestly, if the Habs finish out of the top 10 in next years draft...I'd be ok with including it. There's still probably a really solid prospect in between 10 and 20, but the Habs get to keep the pick for a chance at Bedard, Michkov, Fantilli, etc.

moving MTL 2023 1st rd pick with lottery protection is the Habs having their cake and eating it too.

Jul. 18, 2022 at 12:54 p.m.

Lancebmx

Joined: Oct. 2020

Posts: 10,605

Likes: 8,221

I think a trade of Barron, Kidney, Florida's first round pick and Drouin and/or Byron would be good for both sides.

Jul. 18, 2022 at 12:56 p.m.

Lancebmx

Joined: Oct. 2020

Posts: 10,605

Likes: 8,221

Quoting: Jetman

I don't see Dach getting sent there, but maybe a player like Kidney would be a good secondary option?

Jul. 18, 2022 at 12:57 p.m.

VladislavTretiak

Habs 7th round 1983

Joined: Dec. 2019

Posts: 1,623

Likes: 749

Quoting: Lancebmx

I think a trade of Barron, Kidney, Florida's first round pick and Drouin and/or Byron would be good for both sides.

Barron: Montreal has no RHD depth

Jul. 18, 2022 at 1:02 p.m.

#10

Blazingbat11

Thread Starter

Molson beer is meh

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Quoting: SevenLeg

As much as I'd like to agree with you. I'd say Barron is probably the closest to the untouchable section rather than Guhle. Both are really close, but with so many LD prospects still in the pipeline even with Romy gone (now with Hutson in the mix), RD is still the least expendable area.

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Jul. 18, 2022 at 1:06 p.m.

#11

SevenLeg

Hop on the Slaftrain

Joined: Feb. 2019

Posts: 16,188

Likes: 20,503

Quoting: Blazingbat11

I disagree. Guhle looks a clear-cut above Barron so I think they keep their best D prospect regardless of handedness. Hutson is more or less 3 years away from the NHL and is too much of a boom-or-bust to be a decisive factor in a Dubois trade in my opinion.

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Jul. 18, 2022 at 1:16 p.m.

#12

Lenny7

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 13,291

Likes: 11,051

Excellent write up. I think the way I'm looking at it right now as non Jets/non Habs fan is this way:

Winnipeg needs to set a price and stick to it. I've heard the "He wants to go to Montreal!", "He's going to Montreal as a UFA in 2 years!", and "Winnipeg has no leverage!", but they've also got 2 years of control. If this is the price they've set, great, do it. If not, don't. Dubois is a 24 year old center that has absolutely no trade protection. If someone comes along and offers what you want, take it from them. Even with only 2 years, he still holds a ton of value to a playoff team, and they can just let him walk in 2 years. When you look at rental prices, the deadline this past year saw an absolute boatload going back for a number of rentals, so I'd be curious to see what 1.25 years of Dubois could even bring back.

All of that being said, he also completely quit on the Jackets before he was moved, so there's potential for him to do it again (in which case buyer friggin' beware! Imagine what happens in Montreal when he has a couple of bad weeks and the fans/media rip his soul out!).

I don't know...I guess it all depends on what they're actually looking for.

Cheers!

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Jul. 18, 2022 at 1:16 p.m.

#13

LIRIK

Joined: Mar. 2022

Posts: 2,671

Likes: 1,027

I would love to keep Barron, but i think he's the only piece Winnipeg would build a trade around for Dubois.

Add Dvorak + one of our overpaid wingers for cap space + MTL 2023 2nd (33-38), and i think it's a fair price for both teams.

Jul. 18, 2022 at 1:18 p.m.

#14

MisstheWhalers

Joined: Jan. 2019

Posts: 23,699

Likes: 12,391

Dvorak, Drouin, two of Kidney/Barron/Ylonen, Florida 1st for Dubois.

Jul. 18, 2022 at 1:18 p.m.

#15

Blazingbat11

Thread Starter

Molson beer is meh

Joined: Jan. 2017

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Quoting: SevenLeg

Fair enough. I believe it's much closer than you think. We have a solid sample size of Barron playing pro level (AHL included) to project he's at minimum a #3-4 dman in the future. Guhle, while I think you're right with him being more valuable, still hasn't played a single pro game, and again, considering organizational need, Barron should have the slight edge...

but let's face it, both of us are nitpicking here lol Both Guhle and Barron are super important to the team.

Jul. 18, 2022 at 1:19 p.m.

#16

Campabee

Joined: Nov. 2018

Posts: 15,537

Likes: 6,451

Quoting: Lancebmx

I think a trade of Barron, Kidney, Florida's first round pick and Drouin and/or Byron would be good for both sides.

Not really, Montreal's RD pipeline rivals Winnipeg's for emptiness LOL. Also the Jets would have no one to immediately replace Dubois down the middle and Hughes specifically targeted Dach so I don't see him giving him up. Ideally maybe a trade could be swung if we went something like Dvorak + Armia + Florida's 2023 1st + Kidney + Barron for PLD + Salomonson

Jul. 18, 2022 at 1:21 p.m.

#17

Birtle34

Bandwagon fairweathe

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 7,669

Likes: 3,280

Personally being a jets fan, my hope is a first plus a rhd dman for future approach is my priority. I’ve heard claims that dvorak is not that big of a drop off from Dubois and half the price. So kind of interesting. Would love a gamble of dach and try to teach him a laine type role and try to unleash him on the pp. but I’m guessing dach was added to Montreal for such a reason. That could be quite the pp, with dach on one side and Caufield on the other.

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Jul. 18, 2022 at 1:21 p.m.

#18

Blazingbat11

Thread Starter

Molson beer is meh

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 3,875

Likes: 1,783

Quoting: MisstheWhalers

Dvorak, Drouin, two of Kidney/Barron/Ylonen, Florida 1st for Dubois.

I would do Dvo, Drouin, Kidney, Ylonen, FLAs 1st. I would have to imagine WIN adding very minor pieces coming back to MTL. Very rare to see 5 assets going for 1. but it wouldn't surprise me in this case.

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Jul. 18, 2022 at 1:29 p.m.

#19

Blazingbat11

Thread Starter

Molson beer is meh

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 3,875

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Quoting: Lenny7

I think if the Jets would be interested in a package deal, Hughes would of been able to figure something out by now (As you can see on here, in some cases, both fan bases can actually agree on certain package deals, which is extremely rare on CapFriendly lol). I think you're right, as in Cheveldayoff has set his price and is sticking to it. It's just that it's for one of MTLs untouchables.... so nothing is happening.

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Jul. 18, 2022 at 1:35 p.m.

#20

MisstheWhalers

Joined: Jan. 2019

Posts: 23,699

Likes: 12,391

Quoting: Blazingbat11

I honestly don't think its even that bad for the Jets, really don't think there'd be much of a drop-off and if Drouin rebounds playing with Ehlers and Dvorak can keep up his post Ducharme firing numbers playing 2C in Winnipeg the Jets probably don't drop off much if any, in fact they might do better, that is if Chevy can finally realize his bottom six isn't good enough and does something to address it as well.

I just don't see the Jets falling out of the sky without Dubois, they're already skidding along the ground so what's the difference... lol 😆

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Jul. 18, 2022 at 1:35 p.m.

#21

Lenny7

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 13,291

Likes: 11,051

Quoting: Blazingbat11

The good thing about Chevy (or bad thing?) is that he seems to stick to his guns. The Laine trade demand kind of proved how he operates...he wanted a similarly aged up and coming player, and got it in PLD (for better or worse...).

I guess the one thing that I can juuuuust about guarantee is that they absolutely aren't going to sell for anything below perceived market value...if they did, it'd likely be grounds for firing given what he gave up a year and a half ago to get Dubois in the first place. Winnipeg has been very patient with their front office, but you've gotta think that a loss on a move at this point would put their front office on a very, very hot set of seats...

Blazingbat11 liked this.

Jul. 18, 2022 at 1:52 p.m.

#22

Lancebmx

Joined: Oct. 2020

Posts: 10,605

Likes: 8,221

Quoting: VladislavTretiak

Barron: Montreal has no RHD depth

Well Mailloux but he isn't close to ready yet. I say Barron just for the family ties and the fact they also have no RHD depth. I do believe he would be pretty close to untouchable as well, that's probably why nothing got done yet.

Jul. 18, 2022 at 1:54 p.m.

#23

Lancebmx

Joined: Oct. 2020

Posts: 10,605

Likes: 8,221

Quoting: Campabee

I don't think that's awful.

Jul. 18, 2022 at 1:57 p.m.

#24

VladislavTretiak

Habs 7th round 1983

Joined: Dec. 2019

Posts: 1,623

Likes: 749

Quoting: Lancebmx

If it were just up to me, Barron would be untouchable. But I don't know what are the GM plans for him. As for Mailloux, it's either we accept as a society that a 17 year old kid got a brain cramp for 10 minutes or we trade him to a team in a city where people don't even have a clue if they have a hockey club or not. I'm not even sure the population of Winnipeg would accept a sex offender in a trade.

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Jul. 18, 2022 at 2:02 p.m.

#25

Campabee

Joined: Nov. 2018

Posts: 15,537

Likes: 6,451

Quoting: Lancebmx

I don't think that's awful.

LMAO, I am honestly surprised that you think its not awful, we have almost always disagreed on everything. I guess if we can agree then there is hope both GM's will also find common ground LOL

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