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Jets changes Read Desc

Created by: arafay
Team: 2023-24 Winnipeg Jets
Initial Creation Date: Apr. 28, 2023
Published: Apr. 29, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
According to literally everyone in the jets organization right now, THEY ARE NOT REBUILDING. But they may be forced to if helly isn't willing to sign. That said, id take my chances and try to ice a competitive team and see what happens. A little success probably convinces both helly and scheifele to re-sign.

I know dach for dubois seems unlikely based on what MTL fans and rumours say. But we don't really have any concrete evidence saying that MTL is the only team Dubois would go to. The only thing we have is his agent saying it's a potential destination of choice for Dubois. Everything else, Dubois has called fake news twice now. I built a trade similar to the Trouba trade a few years ago. Trouba wanted out, and NY was at the top of his list (not necessarily the only team though). The jets got a top 4 rookie defenseman in Neal Pionk and a 1st then. If MTL wants him now, it might take something similar unless Chevy is willing to take futures or a 3rd team gets involved to get Winnipeg something they need now back (unlikely). One thing we can all likely agree on is Dubois is a 1A centre option. Trouba is a top pairing RD. Both have similar if not identical value. Dach just broke out as a top 6 forward (mainly getting production as a winger, but also playing C) and Pionk had just broken out as a top 4 d-man (playing the hardest mins). Therefore, the pionk and dach comparison is also there. That being said, I give dach more value simply because of his draft pedigree whereas pionk was undrafted. To balance out, I took an early 2nd (37 oa) instead of the 19 oa the rangers paid (rather large drop off but balances it out in my opinion). The value is there, whether MTL is willing to pay is another issue, since it is a two-steps-forward, one-step-back type thing. Personally, if I'm MTL I'd do it. Dach hasn't proven he can be an NHL centre yet (FO% and track record), wheras dubois is an established bonafide 1A centre. Dach ceiling is likely where dubois is now, wheras dubois can still grow. Finally, one thing I get super mad at chevy for is not locking down positions of need before the team got good. Once you have an established team, it becomes much harder to fill holes, like the jets struggled with the 2C role until dubois came in (and now cant fill in the Laine role, though its less of a concern). I think its important than MTL locks down the top 2 centre positions and build from there, and I bet they see it the same way. The rangers were still rebuilding when they made a play for Trouba because they know how hard a big top pairing RD is to come by. They didn't wait a year and risk losing not getting him or overpaying in FA.

NOTE: I wrote all of this simply to avoid a bunch of comments from MTL fans saying they won't move Dach. Believe it or not, it's a real possibility and probably the first piece Chevy asks for in a potential trade. Whether MTL management is willing to do that or not is a different question and honestly, not up to us so it's rather pointless to debate. That said, i know I'm going to have MTL fans here commenting on that exact thing. Just letting you know, I've said everything I want here, and I've heard your side too. You will achieve nothing by making the "MTL isn't moving dach for dubois" or "MTL will just wait a year" comments.

Onto the next trade, I tried to build something that would fit St.Louis's tricky situation. They are retooling? Gearing up for another run this offseason? Im not sure, and honestly no one is until this offseason passes. They have some nice pieces, but if they want to speed up the retooling process, they need to make cap space. Parayko is the most rumoured name out there right now and apparently there was significant activity around him last TDL with EDM being close until they went with ekholm instead. So, i used the ekholm trade as a comparable. Barrie was included more as a cap thing, but blues fans are saying they need someone to take on parayko's heavy mins in return. Therefore, I went with dylan demelo (which may or may not be something chevy is willing to do). Demelo can probably net a first on his own right now, which makes his value more than a cap move like barrie. Next, there was Reid Schaefer (former first) and a late 1st. Instead of Schaefer, I included chibrikov who I think is a better prospect. That said, the jets have many comparable prospects with only lucius, lambert, and mcgroarty being better prospects than Schaefer. So take ur pick blues fans. The cream of the jets proverbial crop that is comparable to Schaefer is chibrikov, Rashevsky, and Zhilkin (likely in that order). Next, since the jets did offer a better player in demelo than barrie, i didn't quite add in a late 1st (partly cause the jets don't have one) rather adding the early 2nd rounder from MTL. I could honestly add in more picks or pieces, to top it off but i think this is a good comparable. The jets have way too many NHL ready defencemen like stanley or chisholm so id be willing to add them too. Some lower end bottom 6 forward prospects are also possible like gustafsson.

But as I said, I think the framework is definitely there. In summary:
Parayko = ekholm = Barrie + 25+ oa + Schaefer (former late 1st) + 4th = Demelo + 37 oa + chibrikov (former mid 2nd but better than Schaefer imo).

The rest is pretty simple. Wheeler is still an effective player and valuable with money retained. Comrie didn't really work out in BUF but I'd take him back in Winnipeg and also want a 2nd for wheeler. The Schmidt trade is troubling simply because idk schmidt's value. Considering he was traded out of VAN for a 3rd and is now playing better hockey you would think his value is a 3rd. But that contract looks expensive. Therefore, i added a 3rd to instead balance out what i think he might be valued at. Also added in a Stanley for Comtois trade. Not sure if that's something the ducks would be interested in. Otherwise, I would just move Stanley to the highest bidder. Chisholm for Brown is just a move to bring in a serviceable 7D.

I also have brad lambert making the team if he can put on some muscle. The kid looks like a complete player in Seattle which is why he was sent down in the first place.

Thanks for listening to my TED talk. Comment away
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$2,500,000
2$1,500,000
2$2,500,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$3,500,000
Trades
1.
WPG
  1. Dach, Kirby
  2. 2023 2nd round pick (MTL)
MTL
  1. Dubois, Pierre-Luc [RFA Rights]
2.
STL
  1. Chibrikov, Nikita [Reserve List]
  2. DeMelo, Dylan
  3. 2023 2nd round pick (MTL)
3.
WPG
  1. Comrie, Eric
  2. 2023 2nd round pick (BUF)
BUF
  1. Wheeler, Blake ($3,250,000 retained)
4.
WPG
  1. Comtois, Maxime [RFA Rights]
ANA
  1. Schmidt, Nate
  2. Stanley, Logan [RFA Rights]
  3. 2023 3rd round pick (WPG)
5.
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the NYR
Logo of the WPG
2024
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the WPG
2025
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the WPG
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$84,500,000$81,277,024$0$1,275,000$3,222,976
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$7,142,857$7,142,857
LW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,125,000$6,125,000
C
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$4,000,000$4,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
LW, C
RFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$3,362,500$3,362,500
C, RW
RFA - 3
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,000,000$6,000,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
$2,500,000$2,500,000
LW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$3,250,000$3,250,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$918,333$918,333
C, RW
RFA - 3
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$1,500,000$1,500,000
LW, RW
RFA - 2
$3,500,000$3,500,000
C
UFA
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$2,166,667$2,166,667
RW
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,250,000$6,250,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the St. Louis Blues
$6,500,000$6,500,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 7
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,166,667$6,166,667
G
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$2,500,000$2,500,000
LD
RFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$5,875,000$5,875,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$1,800,000$1,800,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$425,000$425K)
LD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$3,900,000$3,900,000
LD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Arizona Coyotes
$1,275,000$1,275,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$762,500$762,500
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$775,000$775,000
LW, C
RFA - 1

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Apr. 29, 2023 at 10:19 p.m.
#1
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Edited Apr. 29, 2023 at 10:32 p.m.
If Winnipeg requires Dach to trade Dubois then he'll simply wind up somewhere else cause MTL just isn't paying that price.

I understand why the Jets would want this but MTL still has the potential of getting him in UFA even if he gets traded somewhere else. The counter-argument to the Trouba trade is that NYR had just signed Panarin and Trouba was a perfect fit in terms of age with their core. MTL is not in this situation, their core is under 23 (where Dach fits perfectly as a 22 year old) and not in their prime as the Rangers were.

Also Friedman mentioned that if Dach was available for Dubois it would likely already have happened.
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Apr. 29, 2023 at 10:26 p.m.
#2
Future Ducks legend
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Edited Apr. 29, 2023 at 10:40 p.m.
We can't take Stanley and Schmidt both, we don't have enough open slots at defense for that.

Appealing as it would be to have Stanley develop into a top 4 shutdown guy to pair long term with Drysdale, he is just such an enigma to determine if he works out. We might be in on him to give him a consistent 3rd pairing spot.
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Apr. 29, 2023 at 10:40 p.m.
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If Buf would take Wheeler, they are the team with the most cap space available and shouldn’t overpay with the retention. So 2nd prolly wouldn’t happen
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Apr. 29, 2023 at 10:49 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: GiggywithGibby
We can't take Stanley and Schmidt both, we don't have enough open slots at defense for that.

Appealing as it would be to have Stanley develop into a top 4 shutdown guy to pair long term with Drysdale, he is just such an enigma to determine if he works out. We might be in on him to give him a consistent 3rd pairing spot.


Fair enough. Stanley should be available though regardless since he requested a trade at the tdl once he wasn’t a regular anymore
Apr. 29, 2023 at 10:50 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: Lsendel3
If Buf would take Wheeler, they are the team with the most cap space available and shouldn’t overpay with the retention. So 2nd prolly wouldn’t happen


He had 55 points in 72 games, at 5M a 2nd is hardly an overpay.
Apr. 29, 2023 at 10:55 p.m.
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Edited Apr. 29, 2023 at 11:04 p.m.
Quoting: LumberJacques
If Winnipeg requires Dach to trade Dubois then he'll simply wind up somewhere else cause MTL just isn't paying that price.

I understand why the Jets would want this but MTL still has the potential of getting him in UFA even if he gets traded somewhere else. The counter-argument to the Trouba trade is that NYR had just signed Panarin and Trouba was a perfect fit in terms of age with their core. MTL is not in this situation, their core is under 23 (where Dach fits perfectly as a 22 year old) and not in their prime as the Rangers were.

Also Friedman mentioned that if Dach was available for Dubois it would likely already have happened.


Dubois is 24. Not like he’s older than the core and from that same podcast your talking about, he said dubois fits into the age of the core.

Also, to be clear, Friedman did say “it’s not that simple”. Not “it would have already happened”. It’s not that simple cause trades are never simple and trades of this caliber take time. He literally says that phrase all the time, actually makes me mad. Yes, we know handling multi-million dollar players isn’t simple and isn’t the same as a CF ACGM freige. Also, the jets can’t have already traded him since they weren’t going to move him during the season and literally got knocked out 2 days ago.

My counter to your counter, the trade was made before the draft. They had not in fact signed panarin. NYR knew what they wanted, and went out and got it for their rebuild. Same thing Ottawa did with chychrun. And same thing MTL might (and frankly should) do with Dubois.

As I said in the description, I’ve had this conversation before and this one has gone nowhere.
Apr. 29, 2023 at 11:20 p.m.
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I doubt the blues will trade Parayko within the division
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Apr. 29, 2023 at 11:41 p.m.
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Quoting: Tennisman142
I doubt the blues will trade Parayko within the division


Yes unlikely. But I’d be willing to up the price to get it done. The Jets desperately need to add some size to the top 4.
Apr. 29, 2023 at 11:46 p.m.
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Quoting: arafay
Yes unlikely. But I’d be willing to up the price to get it done. The Jets desperately need to add some size to the top 4.


Not happening, bro.
Apr. 29, 2023 at 11:54 p.m.
#10
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I can't imagine there's a GM dumb enough to give a 1st for DeMelo, **** was he brutal in the last game.

That wouldn't get Parayko and doubtful he'd waive anyway.

Schmidt is a cap dump, would Stanley and a 3rd be enough for a team to take him? Maybe but Idk if they'd get anything positive in return.

This organization is insane if they don't think a rebuild is necessary, sorry but this core just doesn't seem to have it and the GM has shown he can't build a supporting cast to this core, time to start over.
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Apr. 30, 2023 at 12:05 a.m.
#11
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Easy no from habs.
Apr. 30, 2023 at 12:06 a.m.
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Quoting: arafay
He had 55 points in 72 games, at 5M a 2nd is hardly an overpay.


My point is Buffalo doesn’t need retention. Forcing it on them for a better return doesn’t make sense. They have the most cap space available of any team. Why would they pay an asset got something they already have an abundance of? Then the comment of 55 P in 72 GP for 7M isn’t as good is it
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Apr. 30, 2023 at 12:18 a.m.
#13
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Quoting: arafay
He had 55 points in 72 games, at 5M a 2nd is hardly an overpay.


They dont really have room for him. Most of the forward spots are spoken for. As it is, they're gunna have a hard time finding TOI for Rosen and Kulich at some point next year.
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Apr. 30, 2023 at 12:30 a.m.
#14
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Edited Apr. 30, 2023 at 1:06 a.m.
Quoting: arafay
Dubois is 24. Not like he’s older than the core and from that same podcast your talking about, he said dubois fits into the age of the core.

Also, to be clear, Friedman did say “it’s not that simple”. Not “it would have already happened”. It’s not that simple cause trades are never simple and trades of this caliber take time. He literally says that phrase all the time, actually makes me mad. Yes, we know handling multi-million dollar players isn’t simple and isn’t the same as a CF ACGM freige. Also, the jets can’t have already traded him since they weren’t going to move him during the season and literally got knocked out 2 days ago.

My counter to your counter, the trade was made before the draft. They had not in fact signed panarin. NYR knew what they wanted, and went out and got it for their rebuild. Same thing Ottawa did with chychrun. And same thing MTL might (and frankly should) do with Dubois.

As I said in the description, I’ve had this conversation before and this one has gone nowhere.


You're right about the Trouba trade happening before the draft (I'd looked too fast and saw the signing date of July 17 instead of the trade date June 17) so my mistake on that one.

I would however maintain that NYR having guys like Kreider, Zibanejad, Buchnevich and an NHL ready Fox and Shesterkin (and being frontrunners for Panarin) meant that they had more urgency to improve quicker to maximize the window of their prime years than MTL have currently.

The other main point that leads me to believe that Dach is unlikely to be traded is that Hughes has talked about how becoming bigger, stronger, younger and harder to play against are the priority for his management team. These are all qualities that Dach carries and finding another player with these characteristics, age and quality is extremely unlikely. I believe that he would sooner part with the 5th OA or any prospect before Dach at this point. Besides this I wonder if any other suitor could even offer up a player comparable to Dach in the first place. Because if nobody can make a comparable player available for Dubois I don't see why MTL would entertain this price. Bear in mind that Ottawa probably could have made a similar player available for Chychrun (who has term on a good contract) and instead picks were the only compensation.

My final point is that I don't know why Dach needs to absolutely be part of the return when most comparable trades of RFAs in the last year of team control and pending UFAs going back to 2017 have returned almost exclusively pick and prospect based returns (with the notable exception of Tkachuk because that was a very odd one based on pending UFAs coming out of their prime). Those I found to be potentially comparable with Dubois (to varying degrees) are Fiala to LA, Horvat to NYI, Bertuzzi to BOS, Copp to NYR, Giroux to FLA, Lindholm to BOS, Reinhart to FLA, Buchnevich to STL, Jones to CHI, Hall to BOS, Devon Toews to COL, Hall to ARI, Trouba to NYR and Hayes to WPG. Of these only Jones and Trouba returned U23 NHL players with impact potential. Both CHI and NYR at the time had their cores either in or exiting their primes and hoping for a quick rise unlike MTL who expect their rebuild to take at least 1 year and probably 2 as stated by their own GM in interviews.
Apr. 30, 2023 at 1:11 a.m.
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Quoting: LumberJacques
You're right about the Trouba trade happening before the draft (I'd looked too fast and saw the signing date of July 17 instead of the trade date June 17) so my mistake on that one.

I would however maintain that NYR having guys like Kreider, Zibanejad, Buchnevich and an NHL ready Fox and Shesterkin (and being frontrunners for Panarin) meant that they had more urgency to improve quicker to maximize the window of their prime years than MTL have currently.

The other main point that leads me to believe that Dach is unlikely to be traded is that Hughes has talked about how becoming bigger, stronger, younger and harder to play against are the priority for his management team. These are all qualities that Dach carries and finding another player with these characteristics, age and quality is extremely unlikely. I believe that he would sooner part with the 5th OA or any prospect before Dach at this point.

My final point is that I don't know why Dach needs to absolutely be part of the return when most comparable trades of RFAs in the last year of team control and pending UFAs going back to 2017 have returned almost exclusively pick and prospect based returns (with the notable exception of Tkachuk because that was a very odd one based on pending UFAs coming out of their prime). Those I found to be potentially comparable with Dubois (to varying degrees) are Fiala to LA, Horvat to NYI, Bertuzzi to BOS, Copp to NYR, Giroux to FLA, Lindholm to BOS, Reinhart to FLA, Buchnevich to STL, Jones to CHI, Hall to BOS, Trouba to NYR and Hayes to WPG. Of these only Jones and Trouba returned U23 NHL players with impact potential. Both CHI and NYR at the time had their cores either in or exiting their primes and hoping for a quick rise unlike MTL who expect their rebuild to take at least 1 year and probably 2 as stated by their own GM in interviews.


Of those core pieces, Zibanejad was the only true core piece. Kreider was 1 yr away from UFA and was expected to be traded at the TDL until he surprisingly signed. Buchenvich was a struggling young guy who was subsequently traded before breaking out. Fox was still an unknown (ie unproven) who was just traded for. Top prospect yes, not a core piece yet. Same with sheshterkin. MTL also has core pieces and top prospects in Suzuki, caufield, slafkovsky, and ghule. Therefore, both teams in similar places. You could even argue MTL is further along based on core pieces. Also, if you remember, there was in indication they were front runners for panarin. They were a contender, but not front runner at the time. I do agree about the ages though. Trouba was older than Dubois is now however and like Dubois fits the current MTL core groups age, Trouba did in NY too (25-27 ur olds).

The point about dach being what the Canadiens want is moot since they are getting a better and more refined version in dubois as I said in the description. Talking about those comparables, everyone one of those is from rebuilding or missing playoffs teams (in the Copp case). The only exceptions are “checks notes” Trouba and Jones which were including u 23 players. CHI was trying to make a last run I’ll give you that, but as we’ve already talked about, NYR was still rebuilding (and still needed 1-2 years like MTL does) as we have clearly proven and had one core piece in zibanejad (further behind than MTL) and an upcoming 2 oa.

The reason WPG would ask for dach is self explanatory. While a drop off from Dubois, getting a bunch of futures back would leave the jets with a hole in 2C, only the last time they had that hole they had elite wingers on the 2nd line. Not the case anymore (partially). Tbh, unless something else is lined up with another team to fill that hole, I’d just move dubois elsewhere and get what we need. It’s not like MTL is the only team he’s willing to go to (hinted by him in the end of season press today and there’s no evidence to suggest otherwise).
Apr. 30, 2023 at 1:17 a.m.
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Quoting: Stadel
They dont really have room for him. Most of the forward spots are spoken for. As it is, they're gunna have a hard time finding TOI for Rosen and Kulich at some point next year.


Fair enough, then another team for the same deal. 2nd is fair though.
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Apr. 30, 2023 at 1:22 a.m.
#17
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Quoting: Lsendel3
My point is Buffalo doesn’t need retention. Forcing it on them for a better return doesn’t make sense. They have the most cap space available of any team. Why would they pay an asset got something they already have an abundance of? Then the comment of 55 P in 72 GP for 7M isn’t as good is it


The jets are retaining to better the value. Doesn’t matter if BUF cares or not. Wheeler at 8.25 is a cap dump. Wheeler at 5M is a positive. It doesn’t matter how much cap space buf has. At some point, value becomes subjective and wheeler at 5M would likely have more than 1 suitor. I just chose BUF because I thought they would want him. If not, another team would more than likely bite for 5M.
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Apr. 30, 2023 at 1:25 a.m.
#18
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Edited Apr. 30, 2023 at 1:40 a.m.
Quoting: MisstheWhalers
I can't imagine there's a GM dumb enough to give a 1st for DeMelo, **** was he brutal in the last game.

That wouldn't get Parayko and doubtful he'd waive anyway.

Schmidt is a cap dump, would Stanley and a 3rd be enough for a team to take him? Maybe but Idk if they'd get anything positive in return.

This organization is insane if they don't think a rebuild is necessary, sorry but this core just doesn't seem to have it and the GM has shown he can't build a supporting cast to this core, time to start over.


One game doesn’t define a player. He was more than solid all season. A GM bites on that in my opinion. But you are entitled to your opinion.

I’m doubtful on parayko waiving as well, and there’s probably an in-division fee with parayko which probably means we replace the early 2nd with the 1st if we really want to get it done. The point though wasn’t to get parayko, it was to get a big RD. The jets need it. You can’t replace big buff, Trouba, and myers with demelo, pionk, and schmidt then expect to be the same team. Chevy has failed, big time.

As I said in the desc, not sure on Schmidt’s value. Both VAN and WPG paid 3rd for him and his play has gotten better in Winnipeg than when he was traded from both. But I treated him as a dump.

I don’t think it’s time to completely start over. I say you resign scheifele and Bucky to keep the foundation there between them and JoMo. Then you make the moves around them the right way.

Time to move on from chevy. He doesn’t have it. If anyone thinks this core was the only problem, their insane. Chevy has failed to support the core since he got here. We haven’t seen a 4th line that can score in 11 years, The defense is full of undersized puck movers, and helly has never had a backup outside of brossiot (and comrie but they never played him so…).

While I agree the core needs some changes (moving wheeler Dubois), I still think the foundation is there in scheifele, connor, and ehlers. A few changes and a lot of depth would do wonders. Do you think teams like Boston had their stars outscoring the other team every single night? No, everyone has off days and slumps. However, the jets have never had the depth scoring to offset that. Look at the oilers win today. The core scored 2 of the 5 goals. The depth scored the other 3 (including the game winner). If it’s the jets, they lose that game 4-2, cause no one other than scheifele, connor, etc score. And when they don’t, no one does. The jets have lost every series in which scheifele is out and have a good record with him in (beat the wild, preds, oilers, lost to the knights and blues. Then is also 1-3 in sieries the jets lost after he was out). Without him, they’ve lost every single playoff game (aside from one against CGY). I don’t think it’s fair to say he’s the problem, at least in this case. And helly gets ran into the ground before every playoffs cause chevy can’t get a backup.
Apr. 30, 2023 at 1:52 a.m.
#19
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Quoting: arafay
My counter to your counter, the trade was made before the draft. They had not in fact signed panarin. NYR knew what they wanted, and went out and got it for their rebuild. Same thing Ottawa did with chychrun. And same thing MTL might (and frankly should) do with Dubois.

Funny you should bring up Chychrun.

Remember when Arizona wanted Shane Pinto from Ottawa, and the Sens refused to give him up because he was an important part of their future already ? This is exactly why the Habs won't be trading Dach. Not to mention that Chychrun came with a very friendly $4.6m AAV contract, with terms (2.5 more seasons at the time of the trade), whereas Dubois should cost around $8.0m, diminushing his value.

Finally, not only Ottawa had to move right away, as they were fighting for a playoffs spot, they also didn't have any indications whatsoever that Chychrun would be interested to sign with them as a UFA, two and half years later. That's very different from the Habs situation; we're in the middle of a rebuild, still trying to clean-up Bergevin's mess and, while nothing in hockey is certain, we do have good indications that Dubois could be interested to sign here as a UFA, in ONE year.

So take Chychrun's value, bring it down a few notch, and you're probably in the ballpark of what the Habs are willing to pay for Dubois right now.
Apr. 30, 2023 at 5:49 a.m.
#20
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Dach is more valuable to both Winnipeg and Montreal than Dubois. If you want to propose a trade involving both of them, then that trade should be the Kirby Dach trade, in which Dubois can be one of the major pieces.

A reasonable trade for Dubois involves the Florida or Calgary 1st, a prospect or two, and a roster player that isn't part of the Habs long-term core.

Otherwise, he's free to go wherever he wants or Winnipeg sends him.
Apr. 30, 2023 at 8:45 a.m.
#21
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Quoting: arafay
The jets are retaining to better the value. Doesn’t matter if BUF cares or not. Wheeler at 8.25 is a cap dump. Wheeler at 5M is a positive. It doesn’t matter how much cap space buf has. At some point, value becomes subjective and wheeler at 5M would likely have more than 1 suitor. I just chose BUF because I thought they would want him. If not, another team would more than likely bite for 5M.


Real solid view point to get a deal done. I don’t care about the other team, give me what I want.

And how much space a team has surely matters. What are you talking about
Apr. 30, 2023 at 11:57 a.m.
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Quoting: Lsendel3
Real solid view point to get a deal done. I don’t care about the other team, give me what I want.

And how much space a team has surely matters. What are you talking about


Okay look. If I have one team offering a 2nd (fair value with retention), another team will need to also offer that regardless of how much space they have. Though I’d rather give wheeler for free if someone is willing to take his full hit (which is the only case in which BUF’s cap space is valuable to Winnipeg in a trade comversation). If the value is a 2nd, you have to pay that to get it, unless u can offer something better.

Obviously, someone said that BUF doesn’t do it cause they don’t want him, so the point is moot, but it still stands,
Apr. 30, 2023 at 12:05 p.m.
#23
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Quoting: arafay
Okay look. If I have one team offering a 2nd (fair value with retention), another team will need to also offer that regardless of how much space they have. Though I’d rather give wheeler for free if someone is willing to take his full hit (which is the only case in which BUF’s cap space is valuable to Winnipeg in a trade comversation). If the value is a 2nd, you have to pay that to get it, unless u can offer something better.

Obviously, someone said that BUF doesn’t do it cause they don’t want him, so the point is moot, but it still stands,


No the point doesn’t still stand. I don’t know why you are arguing when 1) Buffalo doesn’t have a need for him 2) retention wouldn’t be an issue and 3) the combo of well we can get that from someone so you should just accept it doesn’t hold any water. Get the last word if you want, the trade makes zero sense from a Buffalo perspective, I said as much, but it’s like talking to a wall at this point. I get it, you don’t care about other teams needs/wants/cap structure/team structure
Apr. 30, 2023 at 2:27 p.m.
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Quoting: arafay
Of those core pieces, Zibanejad was the only true core piece. Kreider was 1 yr away from UFA and was expected to be traded at the TDL until he surprisingly signed. Buchenvich was a struggling young guy who was subsequently traded before breaking out. Fox was still an unknown (ie unproven) who was just traded for. Top prospect yes, not a core piece yet. Same with sheshterkin. MTL also has core pieces and top prospects in Suzuki, caufield, slafkovsky, and ghule. Therefore, both teams in similar places. You could even argue MTL is further along based on core pieces. Also, if you remember, there was in indication they were front runners for panarin. They were a contender, but not front runner at the time. I do agree about the ages though. Trouba was older than Dubois is now however and like Dubois fits the current MTL core groups age, Trouba did in NY too (25-27 ur olds).

The point about dach being what the Canadiens want is moot since they are getting a better and more refined version in dubois as I said in the description. Talking about those comparables, everyone one of those is from rebuilding or missing playoffs teams (in the Copp case). The only exceptions are “checks notes” Trouba and Jones which were including u 23 players. CHI was trying to make a last run I’ll give you that, but as we’ve already talked about, NYR was still rebuilding (and still needed 1-2 years like MTL does) as we have clearly proven and had one core piece in zibanejad (further behind than MTL) and an upcoming 2 oa.

The reason WPG would ask for dach is self explanatory. While a drop off from Dubois, getting a bunch of futures back would leave the jets with a hole in 2C, only the last time they had that hole they had elite wingers on the 2nd line. Not the case anymore (partially). Tbh, unless something else is lined up with another team to fill that hole, I’d just move dubois elsewhere and get what we need. It’s not like MTL is the only team he’s willing to go to (hinted by him in the end of season press today and there’s no evidence to suggest otherwise).


I would argue that you are underrating the NYR in your assessment. Shesterkin was coming into the NHL after having been the best goalie in the KHL for 3 straight years and Fox had been the best defenseman at the World Juniors 2 years in a row followed by a monster final season at Harvard. I also disagree with your perspective regarding Buchnevich who I would argue was on an upwards trajectory and clearly was breaking out before his trade to STL (I remember how the analytics community was up in arms about the poor return for a player they already considered a bonafide top line player). As for Panarin I clearly remember that the 3 teams considered most likely to land him were NYR, NYI and FLA (with NYR and FLA being the 2 most likely and NYI the most aggressive suitor). That said I don't think we'll ultimately be able to see eye-to-eye regarding this comparison of MTL and NYR (you seem to strangely be more confident in MTL's young core than I, so I guess that's a positive I'll take out of it) so I'll leave it at that.

With regard to the comparable trades you wrote "everyone one of those is from rebuilding or missing playoffs teams" from which I'm not sure I completely understood your meaning. My understanding of this part is that you argue that the selling team (the one trading away the Dubois comparable) are all teams outside the playoffs and therefore they were more interested in picks/prospects than WPG will be for PLD. If I misinterpreted your meaning then I apologize in advance.

My counter is that the even if the "selling teams" had wanted to receive more established young players in these trades rather than futures, the "buying teams" (almost exclusively teams expected to be in the playoff picture) have shown a great reluctance to subtract from their lineup to make it happen. I would argue that both the Jones and Trouba trade returns are more a function of how teams value undersized defencemen than being a great comparison for Dach. Both these teams replaced an undersized defenceman with a bigger, stronger defenceman. The same was seen during this past season when EDM replaced Barrie with Ekholm, TOR replaced Sandin and Liljegren (to an extent) with McCabe and Schenn and CAR replaced DeAngelo with Burns despite the not insignificant quality of each of the former. This factor seems less prevalent in forwards.

In the end we seem to draw nearer to agreeing. I don’t believe that any team would make a Dach comparable player available for Dubois, but if one did then I think WPG should absolutely take that offer. In the event that no team offered such a proposal then I maintain that MTL should not be expected to make Dach available. I commend you on your well expressed perspective, you certainly brought about a good discussion that kept me well entertained during the breaks in NHL action last night. Though I expect to ultimately be proven right regarding Dach it was a great pleasure to read perspective.
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Apr. 30, 2023 at 4:04 p.m.
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Quoting: LumberJacques
I would argue that you are underrating the NYR in your assessment. Shesterkin was coming into the NHL after having been the best goalie in the KHL for 3 straight years and Fox had been the best defenseman at the World Juniors 2 years in a row followed by a monster final season at Harvard. I also disagree with your perspective regarding Buchnevich who I would argue was on an upwards trajectory and clearly was breaking out before his trade to STL (I remember how the analytics community was up in arms about the poor return for a player they already considered a bonafide top line player). As for Panarin I clearly remember that the 3 teams considered most likely to land him were NYR, NYI and FLA (with NYR and FLA being the 2 most likely and NYI the most aggressive suitor). That said I don't think we'll ultimately be able to see eye-to-eye regarding this comparison of MTL and NYR (you seem to strangely be more confident in MTL's young core than I, so I guess that's a positive I'll take out of it) so I'll leave it at that.

With regard to the comparable trades you wrote "everyone one of those is from rebuilding or missing playoffs teams" from which I'm not sure I completely understood your meaning. My understanding of this part is that you argue that the selling team (the one trading away the Dubois comparable) are all teams outside the playoffs and therefore they were more interested in picks/prospects than WPG will be for PLD. If I misinterpreted your meaning then I apologize in advance.

My counter is that the even if the "selling teams" had wanted to receive more established young players in these trades rather than futures, the "buying teams" (almost exclusively teams expected to be in the playoff picture) have shown a great reluctance to subtract from their lineup to make it happen. I would argue that both the Jones and Trouba trade returns are more a function of how teams value undersized defencemen than being a great comparison for Dach. Both these teams replaced an undersized defenceman with a bigger, stronger defenceman. The same was seen during this past season when EDM replaced Barrie with Ekholm, TOR replaced Sandin and Liljegren (to an extent) with McCabe and Schenn and CAR replaced DeAngelo with Burns despite the not insignificant quality of each of the former. This factor seems less prevalent in forwards.

In the end we seem to draw nearer to agreeing. I don’t believe that any team would make a Dach comparable player available for Dubois, but if one did then I think WPG should absolutely take that offer. In the event that no team offered such a proposal then I maintain that MTL should not be expected to make Dach available. I commend you on your well expressed perspective, you certainly brought about a good discussion that kept me well entertained during the breaks in NHL action last night. Though I expect to ultimately be proven right regarding Dach it was a great pleasure to read perspective.


I don't think I am underrating sheshterkin and fox. They were top prospects. Elite even. Its no surprise they turned out to be the players they are. However, while NYR was hopeful they would be pieces of the core in NYR, they both were still prospects and they didn't know how they would fair. I'll meet you halfway with buch. There was indication that he would breakout, but his usage in NY showed that they did not see him as a future core piece there and moved him out the same season. He was terribly underused, which is why I believe he wanted out (from my shoddy memory). Also, I just checked the dates, free agents cant talk to teams freely until after the draft. That means NYR was not frontrunners for panarin regardless.

I think you understood my "everyone one of those is from rebuilding or missing playoffs teams" right, but I moreso meant from the selling perspective. The teams giving up those players were rebuilding teams or missing playoffs. It makes more sense for them to take picks and prospects. Jones is an outlier because he came with an extension which is why he got a young roster player. However, Trouba was traded off a competing team to a rebuilding team. Same will happen with dubois to MTL. There is not situation that matches from those trades you mentioned other than this. Therefore, the Trouba to NYR comparable is as good as a comparable as there is.

Thanks for the discussion, we met a good middle ground in my opinion. Honestly, the way this discussion started, don't think I was going to respond, but you backed up your statements with clear points which is much better than most.

My point was that unless dubois forces the jets to trade him to MTL only, then MTL will have to offer a Trouba like package. In that case, the jets need something they need back, which only really comes down to dach since no offence, but that MTL roster is nothing to write home about other than the young core which dubois isn't getting in a trade. That said, if its MTL or bust for dubois, the jets will get whatever they can which means futures. Otherwise, MTL will have to pony up. I don't think I can say I expect to be proven right, simply because we don't know whether or not is MTL or bust for dubois. If it is, your right. If not, I dont think the jets settle for less than dach
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