Overpaying goalies never goes well and what if Woll is better than him this year. Better to give him the one year deal than give him a bigger deal and have it backfire. If if he replicates rhe season he had perfect heres 4.5m x 2 years. He sucks dont got to pay to move. Look at EDM and LAK with Peterson and Campbell

In general it's Arb player goes to high team goes to low and they meet in the middle

Who knows they may trade for someone at TDL

Idk how long these arb hearings last but Kurashev’s started at ~10am cst on Thursday and there’s still no announcement. I’d guess these things take longer than people may expect but it’d have to be 5+ hours at this point to still be in the 48hr window. Or the decision just isn’t being reported yet for whatever reason

It can take time for the arbitrator to make a decision ( like in any court case ) and the media doesn't always know the decision quickly

So the delay is Karlsson deciding which team? Or are the four teams (CAR, PIT, SEA, TOR) busy trying to convince their NTC players to waive to San Jose?

my understanding is that he wants to leave SJ, to anywhere really. So it's most likely players from one of the four teams that can delay or deny the trade (like Krug did). Players like Petry with a 16 teams no-trade clause might not want to leave to California (it was pointed when Karlsson was rumoured to PIT at the draft)

The interview is in swedish :
https://www.expressen.se/sport/hockey/erik-karlsson-vinner-guldpucken-2023-bemoter-nu-ryktena/

Habs fans telling me Elias Pettersson doesn’t make his team better may be the funniest take I’ve ever seen on this site which says a lot

I think the delay is SJS doesnt want to trade him to Pitt as man the proposals all suck

Cause Petry is for sure going back and if that happens SJS is taking more cap back (Karlsson ret + Petry cap)

Carolina has more to give but the issue there is Burns

Toronto I would be surprised as what we gonna send Klingberg back we just signed him

SEA though could make a tonne of sense

Nobody say to "overpay" him; but c'mon he is worth paying ~$4 million AAV for what he did last year. At this point it's only 1 year anyway. Leafs are either fools or are putting all their eggs in the "Joseph Woll" basket. The best strategy is finding a good enough goalie and paying him cheaply for multi years BEFORE he has that huge year that commands $5 million+. Now the Leafs are basically setting themselves up for a make or break year at forward, defense, and goalie. Maybe that is the plan?

$2.4 million is basically "slightly better than backup goalie" range and is absolutely "low ball" for what Samsonov did last year.

Kevin Lankinen, Dan Vladar, Pavel Francouz, Connor Ingram and Pyotr Kochetkov are all close to or slightly above $2,000,000.

Others:
Chris Driedger $3,500,000
Anton Forsberg $2,750,000
Semyon Varlamov $2,750,000
MacKenzie Blackwood $2,350,000

The only "starters" that would be in that range are:
Kaapo Kahkonen $2,750,000
Karel Vejmelka $2,725,000
Stuart Skinner $2,600,000

I didn't do a deep dive, but looked at 3 goalie comparables coming out of their 1st main season and last RFA year that came to mind:

Ville Husso (2021-22; age 27 years/166 days); previous season 25 wins 7 losses 38 games started .919 sv% 2.56 GAA 2 shutouts .605 quality starts and 15.0 GSAA
Husso got $4.75 million x 2 years from Detroit

Joonas Korpisalo (2020-21; age 26 years/85 days); previous season 19 wins 12 losses 31 games started .911 sv% 2.60 GAA 2 shutouts .600 QS and 1.1 GSAA
Korpisalo got $2.8 million x 2 years from Columbus

Samsonov had 27 wins 10 losses 40 games started .919 sv% 2.33 GAA 4 shutouts .675 QS and 17.4 GSAA

I'm sure there are more comps but I doubt there will be many that had better performance than Samsonov; fewer still with more career games started to that point. He'll only get 1 year but there is little support for him to get less than $3 million and plenty in his favor to get more than $4 million.

We say that now but what if he isnt good even if one year yea we got problems

1 year deal will make him work even harder for a bigger one down the road with us or another team. As if he replicates maybe then the 4.9m deal will come

Leafs did not want to go long term with Sammy clearly they have someone in mind or Woll could take more steps like he did this season. And man if he does a new solid starters coming

As yes make or break for goalies is starting to be a thing as u either give them to much money and term and they suck or u give them little term and experiment. As other than Vasi and Holtby the other goalies were journey men

Kuemper went through a few teams, Hill was the #3 till the playoffs, and Binnington was on waivers to start the season then called up mid way

so many goalies! I’m guessing this arb case is taking awhile because of the conversation we’re having:

So most if not all of those guys above went elc and most slid, then received multi year rfa deals, some buying ufa years.

Samsonov is an interesting arb case because:

He was given an expanded role in Washington and struggled so bad he was not qualified.

Then was signed to Toronto and had a great year. I’m guessing he got about the number of stats they thought he would get.

If I’m playing role of Toronto here is my rebuttal:

Husso: the current contract from Detroit is buying 3 UFA years, and appears to be in line with market value.

Husso’s 3-year deal is a comparable to Samsonov’s -next- contract, where he should earn more than Husso due to performance should it continue, and thus my 5-6 prediction.

To compare Husso it would be proper to view Husso’s previous contract which covered his final RFA year: 1.5AAV, however, Samsonov has a body of work, while Husso did not at the time. That being said, a part of Samsonovs body of work is so bad he was not qualified. The other part is great. Due to that, he should earn more than Husso at 1.5, perhaps 2.2.


Korpisalo: he is on a different cycle due to starting 31 games at the age of 21 - at the time of the singing it was believed that would continue or increase. It did not. Decent gamble but not ideal outcome. Unfortunately, the much different career paths and contract history between Korpisalo and Samsonov make contract comparisons difficult.

Ullmark could be considered.

His 1-year age 26 contract was 2.6AAV. Much closer to 2.2 than 4.9. In line with my 3.0-3.1 guess.

Plus ya gotta ask yourself. Any chance next season the away version of Samsonov is the real Samsonov? His splits show consistency concerns. Ones that justify a contract much closer to Ullmark or Husso than starters who have a cleaner track record.

Usually Arb is a 2 day process after meeting. One day for Arb to decide deal then the next day its presented to team and if its over a certain threshold team can walk away making said player UFA

Rn I believe its $4,538,958M

So its not unusual more so in the standard norm

Also I think think its gonna be a 3-3.5m x 1 year deal.

Just ran into Logan Shaw getting an Ice Cream. So cool that many hockey players spend their summers here.

Really curious to see what the Devils do with Tyce Thompson. I like his upside, and he's no longer waiver exempt

I got a feeling were gonna see a Nylander for Pesce deal if Carolina cant land EK

Makes sense for both sides

Also imagine Murray goes to LTIR god help the CF it will break lul

Kane has had a 500x better career then Malkin let’s not fool ourselves here

I’d probably give a slight edge to Kane but they are definitely very comparable. 500x is 500x bigger of a hyperbole then any I’ve ever heard lol

500x better?

Yea Idk about that number

Both have had good careers multiple rings but if we look at the little details Malkin had the slightly better career in some areas while Kane had in others. So close to being a 4x champ if only Det wasnt so good lul

malkin was also behind crosby his whole career, kane was probably the man in chicago especially for the later years when toews slowed down

Kane and Malkin are fairly similar in terms of career I'd say, both have 3 cups, 1 Conn Smythe, 1 Hart, 1 Ted Lindsay, won the Calder, Malkin has 1 Art Ross, Kane has 2 Art Ross, like their awards track record is nearly identical, Kane has 9 more career NHL points than Malkin in 117 more games so Malkin actually leads in that department, Malkin has 180 playoff points in 177 games, Kane has 138 playoff points in 143 games.

To me, this is a bit of a pointless debate, they both have had amazing careers, will get their jerseys retired by their respective teams and enter the HHoF while having incredibly similar NHL stats and awards

BIAS DETECTED

I’d argue that if you take Crosby off the penguins then Malkin would just be Alex Mogilny, insane stats but no team accomplishments and if you take Toews off the hawks dynasty then you’d remove like one cup from Kane

That’s simply a a terrible argument that cannot be backed up with any concrete proof

That's not how that works, Toews and Malkin were both essential players to their teams cup runs. Also, Malkin has shown repeatedly when Crosby was injured that he's fine without him