I really like this way of looking at goalie deployment, thanks for posting.

I wonder what that goalie budget number would look like if you compare "efficient" nets (e.g., Boston, NYI) to "inefficient" nets (teams that have bad contracts inflating their goalie costs; e.g., Edmonton, Anaheim, Florida). That's probably too subjective, but I think there are probably some outlier teams who have regrettable contracts on their books inflating overall costs for the league.

Goaltending is like voodoo, you simply can’t predict what’ll happen to them

While I do think you could and many teams have done worse with goalie deals, I just don't see a 3,15m goalie here. He's a quality backup being paid like a 1B. And while I'm well aware that the league average save percentage has cratered in the last 10 years, that 91 is still just barely above average and won't last.

Great contract. Especially with Allen on the way out. No pressure as the phase 2 rebuild continues. Could be a wonderful sell high piece.

for the record, the Avs intention was for Georgiev to be 1A to Francouz 1B. They paid Georgiev $3.4 mil AAV and Francouz $2.0 mil AAV; but then Francouz couldn't stay healthy so we were forced to use Georgiev like a workhorse starter because we couldn't afford anyone else except a league minimum range guy.

Good contract, Momtembault has been a good goalie with a mid team in front of him, he's definitely not the goalie of the future, but he can steal games for us and make them more competitive

Fair enough. I kinda thought of it as Y1: Georgie gets comfortable in the system and shares some starts with Francouz, Y2: Georgie takes over, Y3: Annunen (or whoever) becomes a league min backup. Injuries kinda threw that all out the window lol

For every "cheap" team getting great production (LA Kings, Arizona Coyotes) there is a team that overspends (Florida, Seattle); it averages out with the midpoint being Vancouver/St. Louis around $6.8 million but the median skews a bit higher at around $7.3 mil AAV (Minnesota/Edmonton). This happens because of "dead money" and buried cap hits pushing up the average slightly.

The goal of my analysis was to create ranges for "average" and identify when a team paid a premium.

For example if Cam Talbot continues starting at 70% of the Kings games; his market value next year should be around $5.4 million AAV anything more than that is a premium and anything less than that is a value; OR the team changes their expectations for him next season in regards to the # of games they expect.

You start to see "higher priced" backups like Varlamov, Kahkonen, Swayman, etc but that is because they are expected to start a greater % of their teams' games compared to guys like Lankinen, Stolarz, etc.

Logan Thompson should fit into that first group on his extension as he is being used as a 1B guy and it doesn't appear that he will overtake Hill for 1A (and Vegas already invested in Hill to be their 1A).

Dallas has really great value in net, with Oettinger $4.0 mil AAV with 50-60 start expectation getting paid as if he will start 43 games. Wedgewood at $1.0 mil AAV getting paid as if he only going to start 11 games a year; but will get 20-30. But the Kings have HALF of that investment, it's crazy!

The Devils have good value also; just poor actual performance to this point this season; as do the Sabres.

So true

(But also good reason to stick to $3mx3 goalies)

Literally broke down what his contract could look like about a week ago on here.

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/777350

if you use all comparable contracts given to UFAs that have similar stats, if anything Montembeault took a very small discount. Unless it's a young RFA or if the goalie is just sub-par, this is what contracts are going to start looking like for 1B or 2A goalies. Especially with the cap increasing.

Looking for such comments and graphs for years this is amazingly well done. Thx for your great comment!!!

$88,758 * 82=roughly 7.2 million dollars...

$93,542 * 82=roughly 7.6 million dollars...

So are you allocating that as the goaltending budget?

If so, Then Montembault's CH would classify in the "1B" tier, if not, the he would classify in the "backup"

Another issue, is just bc he's being paid to do X, doesn't mean he is that...

slithly above average means you are among the top 32 goalies. therefore its better than a back up.

He'd be the 37th highest paid goalie this year. This isn't even starters salary.

He's 30th next year with 6-8 goalies that are UFA/RFA that could potentially be more expensive than him.

$3M is too much for this guy

His projection was between 3.5-4 so he actually got less than market value.

Yes that is about the average team's goaltending budget for 2023; as I posted this contract (next year) puts Montembeault in the 1B category. Actual performance comes after the contract (based on expectations). Guys outperform their expectations (Georgiev, Talbot, etc) and others fail to do so (Driedger/Campbell, etc). I'm not a goalie scout; I'm just tracking where and how much GM's invest in goalies up front.

What most here missed besides the obvious tribalism while arguing semantics over a cap hit that wont affect a team that doesnt care about cap hits the next 2-3 years in a rebuild.

There is NO trade protection on the deal AND that right there makes it a great signing.
Monty can easily be flipped with no leverage. I think the Edmonton rumours really helped Hughes as Kent could have threatened to trade him to Edmonton without Monty putting pen to paper before free agency! And, you know whom Hughes couldn't trade to Edmonton?! Jake Allen with his own 7 team trade protection.

Do you have a forward number and d-man number the way you comment on this contract? Cuz this is what I want here all day long. Are there any papers written on this aspect somewhere on the net or is it your math?

Do you think Allen refuses to play in Canada other than MTL??

No one knows that but unlike most that go to Edmonton. No goalie has an incentive to play with McDavid. Goalies are on their own little island. Allen has already won a Cup and is an East Coast guy. It's 99.9% likely that Edmonton is on his 7 team no trade list.

I haven't invested that much time on Forwards and Defense as that seems to get much more airplay online from loads of sights and advanced statistic models, etc.

The "Goalies are Voodoo" position seemed to be one that held mystery to try and analyze how GM's approach it.

To me, seeing $10,000,000 contracts on some guys and $1.5 million dollar contracts on others while both of them perform fractionally different held much more interest. Plus I love to see how coaches deploy goaltenders; opponents; days of rest; former team/playoff implications; etc.

Forwards and defenders I really like to see line rushes; deployment based on TOI, etc but pretty much they all play every game they are healthy for; while goalies don't.

I haven't found anywhere that publishes it the way that I've categorized it; but coaches and GM's use most of these terms without specific definitions. For example when Detroit signed Husso; Yzerman specifically said:
"We certainly liked the season Ville had (in St. Louis) and we feel he can come in and form a tandem with Alex (Nedeljkovic)," Yzerman said. "We feel we have two guys who we can put in net every night and give us chance to win."

They gave him a $4.7 mil AAV contract; which at the time was in my 1A category; just slightly above the "Tandem" (but admittedly that is just my definition and +/- a game isn't material)

Going into this year, Derek Lalonde spoke about it:
“We have a plan on what the season will look like. It’s probably a day-to-day thing, but we foresee him (in) the 55, 56-58 range. Hopefully, we can manage it a little bit better than we did last year in the volume of when and where. That means managing the schedule better. How many games a week, smart about rest days,”

That keeps him in the 1A range, but moving into the higher end of the category; but they lost Nedeljkovic and signed basically a platoon at the 1B position in Reimer/Lyon at a combined $2.4 million. So they are at $7.15 by carrying 3 they aren't overspending in AAV and have an extra asset to flip in a tight goalie market. They can also let Cossa stay in the AHL to develop even if they have an injury in the NHL.

Seattle, however gave a big contract to Grubauer AND took on Driedger's contract; then signed Daccord to $1.2 million AAV. Now they are "goalie poor". The Avs held firm on not giving Grubauer or Kuemper those types of deals and then found value in Georgiev.

It just felt like the smart teams had a method that created an internal budget; so I was trying to copy it with the limited data I can find as an outsider.

The Lightning went big on Vasilevskiy but only pay peanuts for the backups; while Florida went big on Bobrovsky, but then went big on Knight and even had to pay little above "backup" level to get Stolarz.

I keep a pretty detailed spreadsheet every year for each team; while also tracking their AHL depth; Goalie prospects; etc.

Most of it helps me in my fantasy leagues; but I find it pretty interesting in any case.

You should write a paper on that and publish it cuz this is fantastic. If you have time to forsee at least defender it would greatly help our day-in day-out AGMers and also calm peoples like me who are big day dreamer lol!! I love to read the way you see this sport.

haha, thanks. For now I'll stick to getting this deep on goalies since I've got 3-4 years under my belt on it and I don't want to get divorced.

The market is inflated