Edited Apr. 18 at 4:00 p.m.
Imma bring this up at the all star break next season, never again until. I promise.
I use 5v5 rate metrics to compare players. It eliminates special teams usage, ice-time usage differences, empty net goals and 3v3 overtime. It doesn’t matter if one player has more games played or missed time for injury. You can see career trends in rate metrics you cannot see in accumulating stats, and I think 5v5 is as clean as it could get, representing the portion of hockey that often decides who wins and loses, the fairest thing we have to compare two players in different environments.
Since the trade, Michael bunting has higher 5v5 rates than Jake Guentzel in the following categories:
5v5 goals, primary assists, secondary assists, points, hits, takeaways. He’s also sat in the penalty box less and scored more game winning goals.
He is close to but behind Guentzel in shot generation, which makes sense since he goes to the net, but doesn’t discount that Guentzel is clearly better. Guentzel is clearly the better perimeter forward, has much more skill and body, and has a stronger 2-way game, but Bunting is able, and will continue to be able to contribute more to winning hockey by going to the net. The recipe is simple and you don’t have to believe a random internet stranger: literally every coach ever, all age levels, has a speech ready about working hard and going to the dirty areas, and they’re usually giving that speech to guys like Guentzel.
This trade was robbery, absolute robbery. The hurricanes upgraded the penguins, reduced their average age, saved them future money, gave them assurity for the next 2 seasons, and gave them a bag full of futures while freeing themselves of a trap of their own creation - giving Guentzel 21/22 minutes a night. Yet the consensus since day one has been the other way around. Baffling. Bunting isn’t even taking Crosby’s wing! He was with malkin mostly. Rust took Crosby’s wing, was just above point per game from trade deadline on, just like Guentzel (mid) was previously. God help this comparison if bunting got to be Crosby’s tap in merchant for a month.