Joined: Jul. 2018
Posts: 349
Likes: 246
The Blues "win" this deal for sure. Armstrong might be one of the best GMs in the NHL at understanding where his team is at, and maximizing assets on UFAs when he knows his team isn't really in contention. He also seems to understand that assets you didn't acquire are just as harmful as assets you spend. He has other decisions that tend to be more questionable, but once he has decided his roster isn't a real cup threat, he doesn't beat around the bush with his UFAs, and now he has 3 firsts in a draft that could be franchise altering. I am no scout, but if this upcoming draft is actually as deep as say the 2003 NHL entry draft, 3 picks in the first found can end up creating a big chunk of a new young core to move forward with.
The Leafs didn't do terribly here either, they did get some valuable pieces, and they did trade away picks rather than near-NHL ready prospects as they understand the window is open, but it isn't one and done. Knies, Minten, Niemela could be useful players for them in very short order simply by being on ELCs and likely bridge deals at under their on ice value after that, and this team will need that to keep it's window wide opened. The big knock here is that this deal depends on a player that clearly isn't in his prime anymore, and there is a pretty wide range of what that might mean. It's fair to assume that some part of his decline is age related, and some is the impact of playing on a team that isn't that great, the tricky part is that this trade being good or bad will depend on how much each of those impacted O'Reilly's play, because if they just get more of what he looked to be so far this year in St. Louis, this will have been too expensive. So the deal has risks.