Dubois value discussion

CREATED	YEARS	CAP HIT
Dubois, Pierre-Luc	1	$6,000,000
Dubois, Pierre-Luc	1	$6,000,000
Dubois, Pierre-Luc	1	$6,000,000
Dubois, Pierre-Luc	1	$6,000,000
Dubois, Pierre-Luc	1	$6,000,000

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
31	$82,500,000	$87,112,858	$0	$2,050,000	-$4,612,858

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Connor, Kyle $7,142,857$7,142,857 LW UFA - 4	Scheifele, Mark $6,125,000$6,125,000 C M-NTC UFA - 2	Wheeler, Blake $8,250,000$8,250,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 2
Niederreiter, Nino $4,000,000$4,000,000 LW, RW UFA - 2		Ehlers, Nikolaj $6,000,000$6,000,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 3
Namestnikov, Vladislav $1,250,000$1,250,000 LW, RW, C M-NTC UFA - 1	Lowry, Adam $3,250,000$3,250,000 C M-NTC UFA - 4	Appleton, Mason $2,166,667$2,166,667 RW UFA - 3
Barron, Morgan $925,000$925,000 ($850,000$850K) LW, RW RFA - 1	Stenlund, Kevin $750,000$750,000 C, RW UFA - 1	Kuhlman, Karson $825,000$825,000 RW UFA - 1
Gustafsson, David $775,000$775,000 LW, C RFA - 2	Drury, Jack $925,000$925,000 C RFA - 2	Maenalanen, Saku $750,000$750,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Jonsson-Fjällby, Axel $750,000$750,000 LW UFA - 1	Beck, Owen $916,667$916,667 C RFA - 4	Gagner, Sam $750,000$750,000 RW, C UFA - 1
	Dach, Kirby $3,362,500$3,362,500 C, RW RFA - 4	Koivunen, Ville $828,333$828,333 RW RFA - 4
		Mesar, Filip $950,000$950,000 RW, C RFA - 4

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Morrissey, Joshua $6,250,000$6,250,000 LD NMC UFA - 6	Pionk, Neal $5,875,000$5,875,000 RD UFA - 3	Hellebuyck, Connor $6,166,667$6,166,667 G UFA - 2
Schmidt, Nate $5,950,000$5,950,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 3	DeMelo, Dylan $3,000,000$3,000,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 2	Rittich, David $900,000$900,000 G UFA - 1
Mailloux, Logan $897,500$897,500 RD RFA - 4
Dillon, Brenden $3,900,000$3,900,000 LD UFA - 2
Samberg, Dylan $925,000$925,000 ($350,000$350K) LD RFA - 1
Stanley, Logan $900,000$900,000 LD RFA - 1
Capobianco, Kyle $762,500$762,500 LD UFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
	Perfetti, Cole $894,167$894,167 ($850,000$850K) LW, C RFA - 2

Mar. 19, 2023 at 6:37 p.m.

#1

Once a Kings Fan Too

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No fair attempting to inject rationality into a highly-emotionally-charged discussion.

I admire you greatly, both for the opinions expressed herein and the work that went into presenting them.

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Mar. 19, 2023 at 6:46 p.m.

#2

Howie

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Quoting: OldNYIfan

No fair attempting to inject rationality into a highly-emotionally-charged discussion.

I admire you greatly, both for the opinions expressed herein and the work that went into presenting them.

I just wanted to showcase that there are different ways to see his value that are all represented by a different way of how they see it going. I feel like the problem is the jets want the most for him and expect that they can allow teams to speak to him. Mtl thinks the opposite where they want him for the cheapest price. This creates this whole divide as when the values are so polarizing apart creates what is known as "The Dubois Sega on Capfriendly"

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Mar. 19, 2023 at 6:47 p.m.

#3

F50marco

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What do you think is the most likely?

IMHO I think the trade scenario to a contender like Carolina makes the most sense. After that, either he resigns with that team and his MTL rumors were just to help get him out of WPG or he signs with MTL in free agency. I don't think the MTL rumors are necessarily false but I do believe even if he wants to come to MTL, they're going to have to pay him big bucks. 9-9.5M+ is my guess. Especially if he has a good year with that cup contender. With that said I'd be ok with that over trading a pretty penny for him a year earlier but potentially at a better 8M-8.5M contract.

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Mar. 19, 2023 at 6:51 p.m.

#4

Howie

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Quoting: F50marco

What do you think is the most likely?

IMHO I think the trade scenario to a contender like Carolina makes the most sense. After that, either he resigns with that team and his MTL rumors were just to help get him out of WPG or he signs with MTL in free agency. I don't think the MTL rumors are necessarily false but I do believe even if he wants to come to MTL, they're going to have to pay him big bucks. 9-9.5M+ is my guess. Especially if he has a good year with that cup contender. With that said I'd be ok with that over trading a pretty penny for him a year earlier but potentially at a better 8M-8.5M contract.

I think the cheaper option 5 where he would sign long term with a team. This creates a situation where both have something to gain (Dubois long term, jets increased return) it makes sense from me as it may be slightly more than you want to give up but you get the guy and great chance long term. The jets would want more but this return would be livable. This creates the best situation in trading where they both wish they could do better in the deal but both at the end of the day can accept the deal.

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Mar. 19, 2023 at 7:14 p.m.

#5

HOCKEYBOY448

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He’s probably gonna get overpaid, but I’m hard pressed to pay him more than $8 mil. Real question is whether he’s a 60 point center or ppg like you said. All I know is every deal like this makes me so happy the Rangers locked up Mika for only $8.5 mil. People said it was a bad deal, but I think it was great.

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Mar. 19, 2023 at 7:18 p.m.

#6

Howie

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Quoting: HOCKEYBOY448

He’s probably gonna get overpaid, but I’m hard pressed to pay him more than $8 mil. Real question is whether he’s a 60 point center or ppg like you said. All I know is every deal like this makes me so happy the Rangers locked up Mika for only $8.5 mil. People said it was a bad deal, but I think it was great.

Quoting: HOCKEYBOY448

He’s probably gonna get overpaid, but I’m hard pressed to pay him more than $8 mil. Real question is whether he’s a 60 point center or ppg like you said. All I know is every deal like this makes me so happy the Rangers locked up Mika for only $8.5 mil. People said it was a bad deal, but I think it was great.

I'd say he's a 70-85 point center. Definitely not the best center in the world but you got competition. He may not be that 100 point player but his play style really doesn't lead to that. He's a power forward that uses his size and strength which creates offense rather than most guys using speed and elusiveness. Mika is on a great contract but with deals like this 9-9.5m on an 7-8 year deal may seem like an overpay can be seen as really good value in later years just like many before it. If he goes ufa the chances of it looking like a great contract dwindles.

Mar. 19, 2023 at 7:24 p.m.

#7

jonh514

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I agree with all of your scenarios except the sign & trade.

The value you are attributing is fine, but the idea that any GM trades 2 other moves he made at the start of the year is not in line with how GMs work.

Hughes traded for and signed Dach less than 1 year ago
Hughes picked Mesar less than 1 year ago

Making that deal would be something like admitting failure. It would be another thing if Dubois was McDavid or something like that. It's explainable. But this deal would just make Hughes look like he's walking back moves he made last year and that will upset the fans and make him lose faith with the players.

As an unwritten rule, players cannot get traded within like 2 years of signing a long term deal. If you do that as a GM players won't trust that you won't do it to them.

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Mar. 19, 2023 at 7:27 p.m.

#8

F50marco

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Quoting: Howie

I think the cheaper option 5 where he would sign long term with a team. This creates a situation where both have something to gain (Dubois long term, jets increased return) it makes sense from me as it may be slightly more than you want to give up but you get the guy and great chance long term. The jets would want more but this return would be livable. This creates the best situation in trading where they both wish they could do better in the deal but both at the end of the day can accept the deal.

Right but that is with the assumption that the PLD to MTL rumors die down and he simply wants to go to whoever offers the best contract to him... MTL is only really interested because they think his heart is wanting to sign there, so they can get a good player for less than what he should cost. The minute MTL feels they are paying as high of a cost as anyone else would, the value is lost for them. It defeats the purpose.

These values you're presenting are under the assumption PLD to MTL rumors die down and he kind of publicly says it too. That is what this whole thing is really about at the end of the day. The highest return will not EVER be from MTL. It will be from another team. The size of that return depends on PLD's preference on where he signs long term. If he tells his agent, he'll sign wherever he get traded to, all of sudden MTL is probably out of the running all together and now the value from another team will increase to a more respectable level. If these rumors of PLD to MTL persist and potentially increase, WPG loses so much negotiating power. It means other teams have to accept that they probably won't get to keep PLD. Not being able to keep the asset drastically hurts the value WPG gets. It also emboldens MTL to simply not trade for him at all and simply wait till next offseason.

So its a very delicate situation that can change a lot very quickly for WPG. At the end of the day it comes down PLD and what he wants to have out in the ethos about his future. If the MTL rumors die down, the value WPG will get increases because teams know they have a true fighting chance to resign the player. The more PLD to MTL talk picks up, the less WPG will get from anyone because no team wants to pay out the nose and then lose the asset afterwards.

IMHO WPG's best option is if the PLD to MTL stuff dies down and is sent to a team like a contender who can offer big bucks on new contract, a good team to play on to sway him from MTL and has the assets to pay WPG. One thing for sure is that won't be MTL.

With that said, if the PLD to MTL stuff ramps up..... that Carolina deal might be the best you could possible ask for. The Horvat deal would not longer be a valid comparison. He was willing to sign anywhere. PLD wouldn't be. It changes everything.

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Mar. 19, 2023 at 7:30 p.m.

#9

Howie

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Quoting: jonh514

I agree with all of your scenarios except the sign & trade.

The value you are attributing is fine, but the idea that any GM trades 2 other moves he made at the start of the year is not in line with how GMs work.

Hughes traded for and signed Dach less than 1 year ago
Hughes picked Mesar less than 1 year ago

Making that deal would be something like admitting failure. It would be another thing if Dubois was McDavid or something like that. It's explainable. But this deal would just make Hughes look like he's walking back moves he made last year and that will upset the fans and make him lose faith with the players.

As an unwritten rule, players cannot get traded within like 2 years of signing a long term deal. If you do that as a GM players won't trust that you won't do it to them.

The players aren't as important in the scenarios as it's more to illustrate the value. Mesar can be replaced with someone equal. I think you missed the part where the value wasn't perfect to match exactly but to contrast what the expectation of value is for each.

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Mar. 19, 2023 at 7:38 p.m.

#10

jonh514

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Quoting: Howie

The players aren't as important in the scenarios as it's more to illustrate the value. Mesar can be replaced with someone equal. I think you missed the part where the value wasn't perfect to match exactly but to contrast what the expectation of value is for each.

Unfortunately the Habs don't have interesting players for your sign & trade scenario if you need a player like Dach who is not Dach coming back.

Mar. 19, 2023 at 7:38 p.m.

#11

Howie

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Quoting: F50marco

Right but that is with the assumption that the PLD to MTL rumors die down and he simply wants to go to whoever offers the best contract to him... MTL is only really interested because they think his heart is wanting to sign there, so they can get a good player for less than what he should cost. The minute MTL feels they are paying as high of a cost as anyone else would, the value is lost for them. It defeats the purpose.

These values you're presenting are under the assumption PLD to MTL rumors die down and he kind of publicly says it too. That is what this whole thing is really about at the end of the day. The highest return will not EVER be from MTL. It will be from another team. The size of that return depends on PLD's preference on where he signs long term. If he tells his agent, he'll sign wherever he get traded to, all of sudden MTL is probably out of the running all together and now the value from another team will increase to a more respectable level. If these rumors of PLD to MTL persist and potentially increase, WPG loses so much negotiating power. It means other teams have to accept that they probably won't get to keep PLD. Not being able to keep the asset drastically hurts the value WPG gets. It also emboldens MTL to simply not trade for him at all and simply wait till next offseason.

So its a very delicate situation that can change a lot very quickly for WPG. At the end of the day it comes down PLD and what he wants to have out in the ethos about his future. If the MTL rumors die down, the value WPG will get increases because teams know they have a true fighting chance to resign the player. The more PLD to MTL talk picks up, the less WPG will get from anyone because no team wants to pay out the nose and then lose the asset afterwards.

IMHO WPG's best option is if the PLD to MTL stuff dies down and is sent to a team like a contender who can offer big bucks on new contract, a good team to play on to sway him from MTL and has the assets to pay WPG. One thing for sure is that won't be MTL.

With that said, if the PLD to MTL stuff ramps up..... that Carolina deal might be the best you could possible ask for. The Horvat deal would not longer be a valid comparison. He was willing to sign anywhere. PLD wouldn't be. It changes everything.

The point is with him willing to sign long term mtl still provides an offer. This again is an opinion of yours that says they won't if the price is high. It's fair value wise and if KH finds that it makes his team better in the long run they can still present a competitive offer.

Dubois mtl assumptions don't matter unless it literally comes out thar he'd only sign in mtl. That hasn't happened which means other teams will offer and won't affect anything. Heck if he gets linked more bur he's willing to go to Carolina and resign then boom still get the better return. Mtl is in a spot where if there too stingy and don't want to pay they lose the player it's as simple as that. The assumptions that he needs to prove he wants to come here and why spend when we get him for free all show that Dubois isn't important to them thus resulting in losing him altogether. If mtl wants him they have to beat the best offer available simple as that and if he's willing to go elsewhere mtl has to match it even if he won't sign there. The jets take the best return regardless and mtl needs to have the best one to get him.

Mar. 19, 2023 at 7:40 p.m.

#12

Howie

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Quoting: jonh514

Unfortunately the Habs don't have interesting players for your sign & trade scenario if you need a player like Dach who is not Dach coming back.

The point of the sign and trade is for the extra year of the contract that is negotiated by MTL in this case. This would be better than trading for him as max would be 7 years as he wasn't on the team for the previous year. This can be another team but sticking with mtl so value can be contrasted better as it keeps the team as a constant so the changing of teams doesn't affect the situation.

Mar. 19, 2023 at 7:57 p.m.

#13

Campabee

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TBH, I like that you took the time to view everything objectively and laid everything out according. Props must be give for this as I can only imagine the time and effort it took to do all of this. I also agree with all of the values based on each scenario and your prediction of what is the most likely scenario (I even hope it's Montreal that makes the trade and sign scenario TBH). I know I have said that I would do the OS but every time I said that I have said if a trade can't be worked out before hand, similar to how Carolina approached the KK situation. I don't even mind giving up Dach as part of a package depending on what the other piece/pieces are. For instance if Dach is part of the package then I would be comfortable with adding Mailloux and a 2nd but not any 1st round picks since the difference between Dach and PLD isn't a 1st + IMO.

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Mar. 19, 2023 at 8:03 p.m.

#14

Howie

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Quoting: Campabee

TBH, I like that you took the time to view everything objectively and laid everything out according. Props must be give for this as I can only imagine the time and effort it took to do all of this. I also agree with all of the values based on each scenario and your prediction of what is the most likely scenario (I even hope it's Montreal that makes the trade and sign scenario TBH). I know I have said that I would do the OS but every time I said that I have said if a trade can't be worked out before hand, similar to how Carolina approached the KK situation. I don't even mind giving up Dach as part of a package depending on what the other piece/pieces are. For instance if Dach is part of the package then I would be comfortable with adding Mailloux and a 2nd but not any 1st round picks since the difference between Dach and PLD isn't a 1st + IMO.

Thanks! I don't really get mad at any mtl agm for the valuation they hold because anything can happen so why not lay it out so we can all understand each other more and come to an agreement on how convoluted this can be.

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Mar. 19, 2023 at 8:04 p.m.

#15

ht42

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Quoting: F50marco

What do you think is the most likely?

IMHO I think the trade scenario to a contender like Carolina makes the most sense. After that, either he resigns with that team and his MTL rumors were just to help get him out of WPG or he signs with MTL in free agency. I don't think the MTL rumors are necessarily false but I do believe even if he wants to come to MTL, they're going to have to pay him big bucks. 9-9.5M+ is my guess. Especially if he has a good year with that cup contender. With that said I'd be ok with that over trading a pretty penny for him a year earlier but potentially at a better 8M-8.5M contract.

I have something to said about the interest of Dubois for playing with the Habs: it's the third time that this rumour has been show. The first time happened at the 2016 Draft (Dubois wanted to play for Montreal, and Bergevin haved a plan to make a massive trade with the Oilers or another team if Columbus drafted Puljujarvi). The second time was just before he got traded to Winnipeg (seems like his favorite spot who wanted to be traded was........ Montreal). But now, it's the third time, and that's from since the Draft holded Montreal last offseason (seems like he was at the draft in the Bell Centre because he wanted that a trade about him to the Canadiens happen during the draft evening).

So, my opinion is I 100% not belive that he his now use Montreal for upgrading his value and signing with another team, I think his interest for playing with the Canadiens and sign with them a long-term contract with a price under his real value (means between 7M-7.5M) can be 100% feasible.

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Mar. 19, 2023 at 8:07 p.m.

#16

Howie

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Quoting: ht42

I have something to said about the interest of Dubois for playing with the Habs: it's the third time that this rumour has been show. The first time happened at the 2016 Draft (Dubois wanted to play for Montreal, and Bergevin haved a plan to make a massive trade with the Oilers or another team if Columbus drafted Puljujarvi). The second time was just before he got traded to Winnipeg (seems like his favorite spot who wanted to be traded was........ Montreal). But now, it's the third time, and that's from since the Draft holded Montreal last offseason (seems like he was at the draft in the Bell Centre because he wanted that a trade about him to the Canadiens happen during the draft evening).

So, my opinion is I 100% not belive that he his now use Montreal for upgrading his value and signing with another team, I think his interest for playing with the Canadiens and sign with them a long-term contract with a price under his real value (means between 7M-7.5M) can be 100% feasible.

Yeah he can definitely take a pay cut but would most likely need to be via trade as asking Dubois to take a pay cut as a ufa might not be the best approach when other teams are offering 9m plus. Trade will be less Cap but pay assets and ufa would be keeping those assets higher aav and no guarantee he signs.

Mar. 19, 2023 at 8:11 p.m.

#17

Campabee

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Quoting: ht42

I have something to said about the interest of Dubois for playing with the Habs: it's the third time that this rumour has been show. The first time happened at the 2016 Draft (Dubois wanted to play for Montreal, and Bergevin haved a plan to make a massive trade with the Oilers or another team if Columbus drafted Puljujarvi). The second time was just before he got traded to Winnipeg (seems like his favorite spot who wanted to be traded was........ Montreal). But now, it's the third time, and that's from since the Draft holded Montreal last offseason (seems like he was at the draft in the Bell Centre because he wanted that a trade about him to the Canadiens happen during the draft evening).

So, my opinion is I 100% not belive that he his now use Montreal for upgrading his value and signing with another team, I think his interest for playing with the Canadiens and sign with them a long-term contract with a price under his real value (means between 7M-7.5M) can be 100% feasible.

Every scenario laid out is 100% feasible to some degree as stated in the description. I think a deal between Montreal and Winnipeg is worked out at the draft or shortly there after. I give the odds of that happening about 60-70% over any of the other scenarios.

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Mar. 19, 2023 at 8:14 p.m.

#18

Andy_Dick

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Quoting: F50marco

What do you think is the most likely?

IMHO I think the trade scenario to a contender like Carolina makes the most sense. After that, either he resigns with that team and his MTL rumors were just to help get him out of WPG or he signs with MTL in free agency. I don't think the MTL rumors are necessarily false but I do believe even if he wants to come to MTL, they're going to have to pay him big bucks. 9-9.5M+ is my guess. Especially if he has a good year with that cup contender. With that said I'd be ok with that over trading a pretty penny for him a year earlier but potentially at a better 8M-8.5M contract.

Yup. Leverage. Wont be the 1st time another Quebecois used the Habs for leverage ie Danny 'my kid is an butth**d' Briere

Mar. 19, 2023 at 8:21 p.m.

#19

Andy_Dick

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Quoting: HOCKEYBOY448

He’s probably gonna get overpaid, but I’m hard pressed to pay him more than $8 mil. Real question is whether he’s a 60 point center or ppg like you said. All I know is every deal like this makes me so happy the Rangers locked up Mika for only $8.5 mil. People said it was a bad deal, but I think it was great.

He's drastically slowed down with 4 pts in his last 13 games in a career year. The fact that he will ask for too much money with only a year of control and only wants to go to a few places (or only one place) that will limit his value and he's not a franchise player. There are too many factors here that dont play in the Jets favour

Mar. 19, 2023 at 8:27 p.m.

#20

F50marco

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Quoting: Howie

The point is with him willing to sign long term mtl still provides an offer. This again is an opinion of yours that says they won't if the price is high. It's fair value wise and if KH finds that it makes his team better in the long run they can still present a competitive offer.

Dubois mtl assumptions don't matter unless it literally comes out thar he'd only sign in mtl. That hasn't happened which means other teams will offer and won't affect anything. Heck if he gets linked more bur he's willing to go to Carolina and resign then boom still get the better return. Mtl is in a spot where if there too stingy and don't want to pay they lose the player it's as simple as that. The assumptions that he needs to prove he wants to come here and why spend when we get him for free all show that Dubois isn't important to them thus resulting in losing him altogether. If mtl wants him they have to beat the best offer available simple as that and if he's willing to go elsewhere mtl has to match it even if he won't sign there. The jets take the best return regardless and mtl needs to have the best one to get him.

I'll have to disagree with virtually everything you're stating then.

- MTL is rebuilding. Zero rush for them to do this now. PLD does not make them a playoff team next year and the players and picks they're losing by gaining PLD has just as much potential as PLD.
- They likely have a top 5 pick in this years draft with 4 of 5 top picks being centermen. Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Smith are all top line center potential that negate the need for PLD really.
- Center prospect depth coming in Kidney, Beck, etc as a backups for lower portential.
- Habs already have Suzuki and Dach as top 2 centers currently. The stat lines in MTL have been unflattering this year but ask any Habs fan, Dach was one of the teams best players this year. Suzuki
- Throw in the fact that there MAY be a chance PLD signs in free agency for free.... assuming the above options changed.

WPG will have no choice but to go elsewhere. MTL has so many factors going for them that paying that price for PLD is pointless. I'm not saying MTL will get PLD for a song. Im saying the best value WPG gets won't be from MTL.

If zero rumors came out linking PLD to MTL and Dubois's last name was Doughty, I don't think MTL would even make an offer at all. They don't need PLD right now. 2 years ago, they would have been ALL in on Dubois but didn't have the assets to beat WPG's offer.

Mar. 19, 2023 at 8:32 p.m.

#21

Howie

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Quoting: F50marco

I'll have to disagree with virtually everything you're stating then.

- MTL is rebuilding. Zero rush for them to do this now. PLD does not make them a playoff team next year and the players and picks they're losing by gaining PLD has just as much potential as PLD.
- They likely have a top 5 pick in this years draft with 4 of 5 top picks being centermen. Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Smith are all top line center potential that negate the need for PLD really.
- Center prospect depth coming in Kidney, Beck, etc as a backups for lower portential.
- Habs already have Suzuki and Dach as top 2 centers currently. The stat lines in MTL have been unflattering this year but ask any Habs fan, Dach was one of the teams best players this year. Suzuki
- Throw in the fact that there MAY be a chance PLD signs in free agency for free.... assuming the above options changed.

WPG will have no choice but to go elsewhere. MTL has so many factors going for them that paying that price for PLD is pointless. I'm not saying MTL will get PLD for a song. Im saying the best value WPG gets won't be from MTL.

If zero rumors came out linking PLD to MTL and Dubois's last name was Doughty, I don't think MTL would even make an offer at all. They don't need PLD right now. 2 years ago, they would have been ALL in on Dubois but didn't have the assets to beat WPG's offer.

Then you are willingly saying that you understand the risks of taking this longer term approach and know that the cap and guarantee of getting him at all is affected. Sure you can stick to the rebuild all the power to ya. The jets take the best return and that's that if it comes with Dubois signed that's what it is and can't go back. These situation is similar to the first one I covered but again the risk of not getting him or the larger cap cost (32 bidders potentially).

Mar. 19, 2023 at 8:32 p.m.

#22

F50marco

Joined: May 2015

Posts: 19,588

Likes: 6,728

Quoting: ht42

I have something to said about the interest of Dubois for playing with the Habs: it's the third time that this rumour has been show. The first time happened at the 2016 Draft (Dubois wanted to play for Montreal, and Bergevin haved a plan to make a massive trade with the Oilers or another team if Columbus drafted Puljujarvi). The second time was just before he got traded to Winnipeg (seems like his favorite spot who wanted to be traded was........ Montreal). But now, it's the third time, and that's from since the Draft holded Montreal last offseason (seems like he was at the draft in the Bell Centre because he wanted that a trade about him to the Canadiens happen during the draft evening).

So, my opinion is I 100% not belive that he his now use Montreal for upgrading his value and signing with another team, I think his interest for playing with the Canadiens and sign with them a long-term contract with a price under his real value (means between 7M-7.5M) can be 100% feasible.

Im not sure those other times change anything though. Dubois didn't have any leverage to CHOOSE where he wanted to go when he was drafted or when he wanted to leave CLB. He has a say now simply because he can force WPG or any team that gets him to sign him to a 1 year deal and then he becomes a free agent. That is the only time he was able to actually make a difference to push where he wants to go.

I will say this though, assuming he goes to free agency, MTL will not get PLD at a discount..... players want money over any thing else. If Habs low ball him, he will just sign elsewhere. So if the Habs get him in free agency, they'll have to pay big. I personally am ok with that though. MTL does not get the same benefit as NY or LA with luring players to come play here so we have to accept that we HAVE to pay more than some other teams.

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Mar. 19, 2023 at 8:38 p.m.

#23

Andy_Dick

Joined: Feb. 2022

Posts: 5,089

Likes: 2,367

Quoting: F50marco

Im not sure those other times change anything though. Dubois didn't have any leverage to CHOOSE where he wanted to go when he was drafted or when he wanted to leave CLB. He has a say now simply because he can force WPG or any team that gets him to sign him to a 1 year deal and then he becomes a free agent. That is the only time he was able to actually make a difference to push where he wants to go.

I will say this though, assuming he goes to free agency, MTL will not get PLD at a discount..... players want money over any thing else. If Habs low ball him, he will just sign elsewhere. So if the Habs get him in free agency, they'll have to pay big. I personally am ok with that though. MTL does not get the same benefit as NY or LA with luring players to come play here so we have to accept that we HAVE to pay more than some other teams.

The only thing I hope is that acquiring PLD doesn't influence their draft picks with 2 picks, likely, in the top 16, and a high 2nd. They need to go BPA this draft. This isn't the year to reach on defenseman.
In 2024, they'll be about 8 legit LD, RD talents in the top12 projected ranks. There are a ton of difference makers at center this draft.

Mar. 19, 2023 at 8:50 p.m.

#24

F50marco

Joined: May 2015

Posts: 19,588

Likes: 6,728

Quoting: Howie

Then you are willingly saying that you understand the risks of taking this longer term approach and know that the cap and guarantee of getting him at all is affected. Sure you can stick to the rebuild all the power to ya. The jets take the best return and that's that if it comes with Dubois signed that's what it is and can't go back. These situation is similar to the first one I covered but again the risk of not getting him or the larger cap cost (32 bidders potentially).

Once again, you are assuming PLD rumors to MTL are simply that. They may be. They may not be though. That's the problem with other teams willing to offer full value. Which in turn lowers what MTL would be willing to offer.

I think you are getting hyper focused on the idea that MTL will get PLD for peanuts in a trade. That is not what I'm saying at all. If MTL doesn't come up with an offer that is suitable, WPG will move him elsewhere for the best offer and I think all Habs fans are ok with that. Assuming PLD is willing to just sign with any team, WPG will get their high value.

Also any player can make the team better but the value has to be worth the sacrifice. Based on where MTL is sitting, where they are projecting next year and based on what they have coming in the future with prospects, paying the price for PLD makes no sense. That does not mean they wont offer anything. They'll make an offer but based on the factors I just laid out, there is very little chance any other teams offer won't beat it. Hence why another team makes more sense to pay the demands WPG will be asking for. Not MTL.

Mar. 19, 2023 at 8:53 p.m.

#25

F50marco

Joined: May 2015

Posts: 19,588

Likes: 6,728

Quoting: Koskinen_The_Great

The only thing I hope is that acquiring PLD doesn't influence their draft picks with 2 picks, likely, in the top 16, and a high 2nd. They need to go BPA this draft. This isn't the year to reach on defenseman.
In 2024, they'll be about 8 legit LD, RD talents in the top12 projected ranks. There are a ton of difference makers at center this draft.

Habs won't make any PLD trade until they know where their 1st is. Its as simple as that. Habs winning the lottery eliminates any need for PLD outright. Bedard and Fantilli will both be better than PLD. Probably even Carlsson too. Smith im less sure of. So the draft position dictates whether or not a PLD trade is even warranted anymore.

As for everything else, Yeah I agree 100%. BPA this draft and next year focus on RHD.

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