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How would you rank these 3 trades for Ottawa

Created by: sensonfire
Team: 2023-24 Ottawa Senators
Initial Creation Date: Oct. 25, 2023
Published: Oct. 25, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
All 3 trades were made after the start of the season by fans from the other team's fanbase.


All 3 trades have received my endorsement.
Trades
1.
OTT
  1. Holmström, Simon
  2. Wahlstrom, Oliver
  3. 2024 1st round pick (NYI)
Additional Details:
Lottery Protected
NYI
    Shane Pinto


    https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/4639777
    2.
    OTT
    1. 2024 1st round pick (COL)
    2. 2025 3rd round pick (COL)
    3. 2026 2nd round pick (COL)
    Additional Details:
    No Lottery Protection
    COL
      Shane Pinto


      https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/4652371
      3.
      OTT
      1. Lucius, Chaz
      2. 2024 1st round pick (WPG)
      Additional Details:
      No Lottery Protection
      WPG
        Shane Pinto


        https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/4653758
        Buyouts
        Retained Salary Transactions
        DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
        2024
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the DET
        Logo of the NYI
        Logo of the COL
        Logo of the WPG
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the DET
        Logo of the TBL
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the OTT
        2025
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the COL
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the OTT
        2026
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the COL
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the OTT
        ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
        21$83,500,000$80,967,380$0$1,850,000$2,532,620
        Left WingCentreRight Wing
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $8,205,714$8,205,714
        LW
        UFA - 5
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $8,350,000$8,350,000
        C
        UFA - 8
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $6,500,000$6,500,000
        RW, C
        NMC
        UFA - 2
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $2,950,000$2,950,000
        LW, RW
        UFA - 3
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $863,333$863,333
        C, LW
        RFA - 2
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $2,500,000$2,500,000
        RW
        NTC
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $762,500$762,500
        LW
        RFA - 1
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $7,950,000$7,950,000
        C
        UFA - 7
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $4,975,000$4,975,000
        RW, LW
        UFA - 4
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $775,000$775,000
        C
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $835,000$835,000
        C, RW
        RFA - 2
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $2,500,000$2,500,000
        LW, RW
        UFA - 1
        Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$1,850,000$2M)
        LD
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $4,600,000$4,600,000
        RD
        M-NTC
        UFA - 4
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $4,000,000$4,000,000
        G
        M-NTC
        UFA - 5
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $8,000,000$8,000,000
        LD
        UFA - 5
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $4,600,000$4,600,000
        LD/RD
        M-NTC
        UFA - 2
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $2,750,000$2,750,000
        G
        UFA - 2
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $2,000,000$2,000,000
        LD/RD, LW
        RFA - 1
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $1,100,000$1,100,000
        RD
        NMC
        UFA - 2
        ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $805,000$805,000
        RD
        RFA - 2
        Taxi Squad
        Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
        $894,167$894,167 ($0$0$0$0) (Performance Bonus$350,000$350K)
        C
        RFA - 3
        Logo of the New York Islanders
        $874,125$874,125 ($0$0$0$0)
        RW
        RFA - 1
        Logo of the New York Islanders
        $863,333$863,333 ($0$0$0$0)
        RW
        RFA - 1

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        Oct. 25, 2023 at 12:59 p.m.
        #1
        MisstheWhalers
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        Pinto has gotten massively overrated, that much is clear.
        UpsideDownQue, CapFriendlysFinest, exo2769 and 5 others liked this.
        Oct. 25, 2023 at 1:05 p.m.
        #2
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        In no world is he worth a 1st round pick.
        Nightowl26 liked this.
        Oct. 25, 2023 at 1:35 p.m.
        #3
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        Avs made their moves, they have their C situation managed.

        I would have hated this trade back then or right now, tbh. Insane trade for COL.
        M96N29, TJTwolf and MrLaheySays liked this.
        Oct. 25, 2023 at 1:41 p.m.
        #4
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        WPG
        COL
        NYI

        Quoting: CapFriendlysFinest
        In no world is he worth a 1st round pick.

        How much would you bet?

        That's what people who don't follow prospects would think

        Pinto was ranked Top-30 in the NHL in 2021 and 2022. He missed a full season to injury so it delayed his rookie season but the projectability is still there. NHL teams know about this. It's like at the draft, teams don't draft players based on what they did last season, they select for what they think they can do in the future

        Really basic stuff, NHL 101
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        Oct. 25, 2023 at 1:56 p.m.
        #5
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        Quoting: CapFriendlysFinest
        In no world is he worth a 1st round pick.


        He is most definitely worth a 1st round pick.
        Oct. 25, 2023 at 1:56 p.m.
        #6
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        I would do the Winnipeg one.
        sensonfire liked this.
        Oct. 25, 2023 at 1:59 p.m.
        #7
        Thread Starter
        sensonfire
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        Quoting: sens65
        I would do the Winnipeg one.


        Which one should be ranked second ?
        sens65 liked this.
        Oct. 25, 2023 at 2:01 p.m.
        #8
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        Quoting: CapFriendlysFinest
        In no world is he worth a 1st round pick.


        Quoting: Xspyrit
        WPG
        COL
        NYI


        How much would you bet?

        That's what people who don't follow prospects would think

        Pinto was ranked Top-30 in the NHL in 2021 and 2022. He missed a full season to injury so it delayed his rookie season but the projectability is still there. NHL teams know about this. It's like at the draft, teams don't draft players based on what they did last season, they select for what they think they can do in the future

        Really basic stuff, NHL 101


        With all do respect, and Xspyrit is correct, but the Leafs last 2 - 1st round pick trades:

        Mrazek + 1st in order to trade down for a 2nd as a cap dump. (move down 13 spots)
        Lafferty and Mcabe and 2 5th rounders for a 1st and 2nd, Gogolev and Joey Anderson.

        Would he be worth a 1st on his own without the prospects? just curious tbh. Just need clarification.
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        Oct. 25, 2023 at 2:03 p.m.
        #9
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        Quoting: sensonfire
        Which one should be ranked second ?


        Probably Colorado.
        sensonfire liked this.
        Oct. 25, 2023 at 2:05 p.m.
        #10
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        Quoting: Xspyrit
        WPG
        COL
        NYI


        How much would you bet?

        That's what people who don't follow prospects would think

        Pinto was ranked Top-30 in the NHL in 2021 and 2022. He missed a full season to injury so it delayed his rookie season but the projectability is still there. NHL teams know about this. It's like at the draft, teams don't draft players based on what they did last season, they select for what they think they can do in the future

        Really basic stuff, NHL 101


        I’m curious, why do you think the NYI package is the worst there? Imo, I’d rather have the Islanders 1st and 2 pending RFAs that are in the NHL right now than the Avs 1st (presumably a late 1st) and picks way in the future.

        Not saying either of those teams do those trades necessarily, just curious.
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        Oct. 25, 2023 at 2:16 p.m.
        #11
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        Funny how ottawa latch on to 1 deal from the other team but never mention the reaction the actual team making the trade. I could go to all those agms and all would say that's way too much but since ONE person proposed its what Pinto is getting. All teams decline and its not close
        Oct. 25, 2023 at 2:35 p.m.
        #12
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        Quoting: Xspyrit
        WPG
        COL
        NYI


        How much would you bet?

        That's what people who don't follow prospects would think

        Pinto was ranked Top-30 in the NHL in 2021 and 2022. He missed a full season to injury so it delayed his rookie season but the projectability is still there. NHL teams know about this. It's like at the draft, teams don't draft players based on what they did last season, they select for what they think they can do in the future

        Really basic stuff, NHL 101


        So you're telling me, a soon to be 23 year old, who hasn't played a game in over a year, who has had one full season in the NHL, who only had 35 points, is worth a 1st?
        If he is clearly worth this value, why hasn't any team offered a deal similar to the ones you have mentioned? It's because no one will offer anything close to that.

        If you use that same logic of he was a top 30 prospect in 2021 and 2022, lets take a look at some of the other names on that list (which again, the Athletic never had him ranked in the top 30 but whatever)
        Nick Robertson, Alex Turcotte, Zac Jones, Fabian Lysell, Jack Rathbone, David Farrance, Ville Heinola and Authur Kaliyev.
        All these players were listed in the same list as Pinto and not a single one of them deserve a 1st round pick, in fact multiple on this list have flamed out and been traded. The porblem is, fans overrate their own players, like Sens fans do with Pinto.

        This is the thing about prospects, they don't always get better like you mention. You draft and trade for the projection sure, but the problem is the writing is on the wall for a player like Pinto. Large injury concern, hasn't played in a year, still doesn't have a deal, and is likely at max, a second line center. More realistically, a third line center.

        None of these deals get done, let alone for a first. It is just the same old, teams over hyping their players. I should know, I am a Leafs fan lol.
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        Oct. 25, 2023 at 2:37 p.m.
        #13
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        I think the Newhook trade value is a fair baseline for a Pinto trade. Imo the whole trade you value depends ultimately on what you think Holmstrom and Wahlstrom are or are not. For me I’m not a huge Luscius guy but I get the idea you trade out a center get a young center back and a 1st. WPG, COL, NYI
        sensonfire, Xspyrit and TJTwolf liked this.
        Oct. 25, 2023 at 3:23 p.m.
        #14
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        I think another thing that should be said, is players DO get moved for 1st round picks. Look at Dach, Newhook, and Romanov. However they all have one thing in common, and that is Montreal.

        Montreal seems to overvalue these players, the same way we look at Pinto. While all the options are still out for these players, the returns so far don't look great. Dach is injured again and will miss the whole season, another reason teams are nervous to trade for Pinto. Newhook has looked good so far thanks to the Dach injury, so we will count that as an early win. While Romanov has squandered his opportunity with the Islanders. Playing beside Pulock while putting up numbers under 50% GAX is upsetting. He is also currently pointless through 6.

        Players 3-4 years removed from their draft year rarely get 1st round picks who haven't performed. I would say some notable player who could fetch a 1st and more would be someone like Alexis Laf, who was drafted first overall. But even then, I doubt he turns into the stud we all hoped he could be.
        Oct. 25, 2023 at 3:35 p.m.
        #15
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        Zero chance he pulls anywhere near theses deals from anyone. Unproven players without a high 1st round pedigree aren't returning record prices.
        Oct. 25, 2023 at 3:38 p.m.
        #16
        Novistic
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        Pinto is a good young center. But the avs aren't going to have the cap space to resign him for more in the future. Soon, we need to figure out our goalie situation, resign Lehkonen and Rantanen, plus all of our new guys, etc. Pinto on the avs would be nice, but in the long term, I don't see it happening. And a young prospect like him will want to find a permanent home.
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        Oct. 25, 2023 at 3:40 p.m.
        #17
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        Quoting: CapFriendlysFinest
        In no world is he worth a 1st round pick.


        Quoting: Novistic
        Pinto is a good young center. But the avs aren't going to have the cap space to resign him for more in the future. Soon, we need to figure out our goalie situation, resign Lehkonen and Rantanen, plus all of our new guys, etc. Pinto on the avs would be nice, but in the long term, I don't see it happening. And a young prospect like him will want to find a permanent home.


        Quoting: Windjammer
        Zero chance he pulls anywhere near theses deals from anyone. Unproven players without a high 1st round pedigree aren't returning record prices.


        Quoting: Xqb15a
        I think the Newhook trade value is a fair baseline for a Pinto trade. Imo the whole trade you value depends ultimately on what you think Holmstrom and Wahlstrom are or are not. For me I’m not a huge Luscius guy but I get the idea you trade out a center get a young center back and a 1st. WPG, COL, NYI


        Quoting: sens65
        Probably Colorado.


        Can we all agree that none of these trades will happen because Dorion would probably fumble somewhere in the negotiations and make a complete mess of it?
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        Oct. 25, 2023 at 3:43 p.m.
        #18
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        Quoting: BillytheKid3
        Can we all agree that none of these trades will happen because Dorion would probably fumble somewhere in the negotiations and make a complete mess of it?


        I can agree, but I think it's more that no one is or would offer anywhere close to these deals. If they were, he'd have been traded already.
        MisstheWhalers liked this.
        Oct. 25, 2023 at 3:45 p.m.
        #19
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        By the way, @sensonfire, there was also a Zary + 1st offer, and before that there was good offers from Boston fans that I remember

        Quoting: turtlemountain
        I’m curious, why do you think the NYI package is the worst there? Imo, I’d rather have the Islanders 1st and 2 pending RFAs that are in the NHL right now than the Avs 1st (presumably a late 1st) and picks way in the future.

        Not saying either of those teams do those trades necessarily, just curious.

        The WPG offer is comfortably the best IMO, : 2024 1st round pick (WPG) (No Lottery Protection) + Chaz Lucius (very good prospect)

        Then :

        2024 1st round pick (COL) < 2024 1st round pick (NYI) (Lottery Protected)
        2026 2nd round pick (COL) > Oliver Wahlstrom
        2025 3rd round pick (COL) > Simon Holmström


        Hard to say where these picks will land but maybe 17th OA vs 27th OA? So yes the Isles pick is more valuable but I would rather have the picks than Wahlstrom and Holmstrom who aren't needed on the Sens. Maybe management would think differently and would still be high enough on Wahlstrom but the guy is now 23, can't stay healthy and doesn't have the production required for his style. He was massively sheltered last season and still came out with poor advanced stats. Due to Dorion years of mismanagement, Ottawa need picks to rebuild the pool (even if it shouldn't be needed already). They have Kleven, Jarventie, Sogaard, Ostapchuk left and not much after that, maybe Halliday, Pettersson and Donovan.


        All that said, Colorado and NYI packages are very close in value, I am choosing Colorado's package for organizational needs
        sensonfire liked this.
        Oct. 25, 2023 at 3:51 p.m.
        #20
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        Quoting: Windjammer
        I can agree, but I think it's more that no one is or would offer anywhere close to these deals. If they were, he'd have been traded already.


        Ya these Pinto hypotheticals have been interesting, Debrincat got a 1st, 2nd and 3rd (at the time we snapped traded a 7th, and 39th, etc. overall pick for him without resigning him long term).

        Pinto doesn't get that at this point.

        Every Sens fan on here wants to off load someone else and sign him. I know that for sure.
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        Oct. 25, 2023 at 3:53 p.m.
        #21
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        sensonfire
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        Quoting: Xspyrit
        By the way, sensonfire, there was also a Zary + 1st offer, and before that there was good offers from Boston fans that I remember


        The WPG offer is comfortably the best IMO, : 2024 1st round pick (WPG) (No Lottery Protection) + Chaz Lucius (very good prospect)

        Then :

        2024 1st round pick (COL) < 2024 1st round pick (NYI) (Lottery Protected)
        2026 2nd round pick (COL) > Oliver Wahlstrom
        2025 3rd round pick (COL) > Simon Holmström


        Hard to say where these picks will land but maybe 17th OA vs 27th OA? So yes the Isles pick is more valuable but I would rather have the picks than Wahlstrom and Holmstrom who aren't needed on the Sens. Maybe management would think differently and would still be high enough on Wahlstrom but the guy is now 23, can't stay healthy and doesn't have the production required for his style. He was massively sheltered last season and still came out with poor advanced stats. Due to Dorion years of mismanagement, Ottawa need picks to rebuild the pool (even if it shouldn't be needed already). They have Kleven, Jarventie, Sogaard, Ostapchuk left and not much after that, maybe Halliday, Pettersson and Donovan.


        All that said, Colorado and NYI packages are very close in value, I am choosing Colorado's package for organizational needs


        I chose not to include the offer involving Zary and Calgary's 2024 1st.

        If Calgary's 2024 1st is lower than #20 overall, Montreal could receive it as part of the Sean Monahan trade.

        The OP of that AGM said nothing about it.
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        Oct. 25, 2023 at 4:16 p.m.
        #22
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        Edited Oct. 25, 2023 at 4:21 p.m.
        Quoting: Howie
        Funny how ottawa latch on to 1 deal from the other team but never mention the reaction the actual team making the trade. I could go to all those agms and all would say that's way too much but since ONE person proposed its what Pinto is getting. All teams decline and its not close

        lol ok... These dals have been proposed by non-Sens fans. OP chose 3 of them but there has been PLENTY, and sometimes even more valuable than this.

        Quoting: CapFriendlysFinest
        So you're telling me, a soon to be 23 year old, who hasn't played a game in over a year, who has had one full season in the NHL, who only had 35 points, is worth a 1st?
        If he is clearly worth this value, why hasn't any team offered a deal similar to the ones you have mentioned? It's because no one will offer anything close to that.

        Ok so I am going to point out the fallacies and inaccuracies in your post. And damn there's a lot of them in just one post.

        "who hasn't played a game in over a year" : this is an extremely easy verifiable fact. Last game played : April 13th, which is 6 months and 12 days ago, not "over a year"

        "a soon to be 23 year old" : He started last season as a 21 y/o... And like you have already been notified, missed the WHOLE previous season... which delays his development 1 year

        "who only had 35 points : another thing that just got explained to you but that seemed to go completely over your head... Young players or prospects' value is in their PROJECTABILITY. Do you need me to give you the definition for that word?

        "why hasn't any team offered a deal similar to the ones you have mentioned?" : what are you even talking about? In the reality? How do you know what has been offered or not? Let me guess, it's because "it has not happened yet"? Pure logical fallacy

        Also, did you know that the Coyotes wanted Pinto in March for Chychrun but the Sens decided to give up their first round pick instead (which was 12th OA). This has been talked about by a lot of hockey people and confirmed by people with a long track record of inside information (on another forum)

        Also, another good way to become good at grasping players value, is by studying this every year :

        https://www.capfriendly.com/trades

        Quoting: CapFriendlysFinest
        If you use that same logic of he was a top 30 prospect in 2021 and 2022, lets take a look at some of the other names on that list (which again, the Athletic never had him ranked in the top 30 but whatever)
        Nick Robertson, Alex Turcotte, Zac Jones, Fabian Lysell, Jack Rathbone, David Farrance, Ville Heinola and Authur Kaliyev.
        All these players were listed in the same list as Pinto and not a single one of them deserve a 1st round pick, in fact multiple on this list have flamed out and been traded. The porblem is, fans overrate their own players, like Sens fans do with Pinto.

        Damn, do I really need to answer that?

        Look at the number of games Nick Robertson has played since 2020-21... Lysell is still 20 y/o, do you think the Bruins would trade him for less than a 1st round pick? Turcotte, Rathbone, Farrance, Heinola, all guys that had their stocked drop a lot since... I'm pretty sure Kings fans would also ask for 1st+ if Arthur Kaliyev was on the market (doesn't mean that Pinto is)

        The problem is not really that fans overrate their own players, it's that the average fan doesn't have enough knowledge about the game, the players and prospects, particularly outside of their own team so these forums are a big mess.

        The thing is you don't know how long I have been "projecting players", maybe you were not even following the NHL back then... I made money with guys like Duncan Keith, Shea Weber, Loui Eriksson, Keith Yandle but my best coup was Erik Karlsson, literally made 30 K$ with hockey cards. Bought everything I could when his rookie cards came out, sold them 2 years later, profit. Then I did that with houses, which gives me a lot more time to dig into hockey now.

        By the way, I have been higher on Ridly Greig for 2+ years now, 95% of Sens fans disagreed, they start to understand now.

        Quoting: CapFriendlysFinest
        This is the thing about prospects, they don't always get better like you mention. You draft and trade for the projection sure, but the problem is the writing is on the wall for a player like Pinto. Large injury concern, hasn't played in a year, still doesn't have a deal, and is likely at max, a second line center. More realistically, a third line center.

        None of these deals get done, let alone for a first. It is just the same old, teams over hyping their players. I should know, I am a Leafs fan lol.

        tears of joy

        Dear mother of...

        I don't stress much when people "disagree" on the internet, you have the right to be entitled to your opinion. I look at facts and empirical evidence first and foremost, which is what my education taught me.

        That said, still no money bet? Always looking at new ways to make money
        Oct. 25, 2023 at 4:27 p.m.
        #23
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        Quoting: BillytheKid3
        Ya these Pinto hypotheticals have been interesting, Debrincat got a 1st, 2nd and 3rd (at the time we snapped traded a 7th, and 39th, etc. overall pick for him without resigning him long term).

        Pinto doesn't get that at this point.

        Another thing that some people (not you) don't even understand is that not ALL first round picks are equal. There is a GIGANTIC difference in value between a 7th OA pick and a late 1st
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        Oct. 25, 2023 at 4:59 p.m.
        #24
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        I don’t see WPG giving ‘24 1st + Lucius, who was 18th OV in ‘21, for Pinto.
        I’m fine giving up Lucius + a 2nd or equivalent player/prospect
        Oct. 25, 2023 at 5:02 p.m.
        #25
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        From OTT's perspective I would think NYI, COL, WPG, though it seems COL isn't the best from where the Sens stand now. The COL trade would seem more in the category of OTT throwing in the towel a bit on the roster they already have. At least NYI gets them players now.

        While I can't speak for NYI or WPG, it would seem pretty clear that COL says no.
        TJTwolf liked this.
         
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