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moving up at the draft

Created by: MTLaveragefan
Team: 2023-24 Montreal Canadiens
Initial Creation Date: Jan. 29, 2024
Published: Jan. 29, 2024
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Lets say the draft order is the following after the lottery:

1- CHI
2- SJS
3- ANA
4- CLB
5-OTT
6-MIN
7-MTL

I wonder what the price would be to acquire picks 2-5. Obviously, Celebrini is the #1 and nobody is trading him.

However, with the mix of great forward and GREAT dman at this draft - selection 2-5 might will be hard to predict... and could go in any direction. As such, a team could be inticed to trade back or trade their pick for good value.

Lets say that MTL could put his #7OVR pick in play and other assets like the 2025 MTL 1st and 2025 CAL's first, Mailloux, Xhekaj, Matheson, Beck and even Hutson?

Let me know how a package could look for a trade-back or to acquire the pick entirely.
Free Agent Signings
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Demidov, Ivan
3$900,000
Lindstrom, Cayden
3$900,000
Trades
1.
MTL
  1. 2024 1st round pick (VAN)
Additional Details:
ANY TEAM FOR A FIRST - assuming Mony gets a first is not crazy - and potentially relevant in this scenario
2.
MTL
  1. 2024 1st round pick (ANA)
Additional Details:
3rd OVR
ANA
  1. Beck, Owen
  2. Mailloux, Logan
  3. 2024 1st round pick (VAN)
  4. 2025 1st round pick (MTL)
Additional Details:
Get a great RHD prospect,
Get a great Center prospect (who plays that 200ft game)
Get a late first in 2024.
Get a early to mid first round pick in 2025.
3.
MTL
  1. 2024 1st round pick (SJS)
Additional Details:
2OVR
SJS
    1. Mailloux, Logan ($875,000)+
    2. Beck, Owen ($885,000)+

    Additional Details
    Get a great RHD prospect,
    Get a great Center prospect (who plays that 200ft game)
    Get a late first in 2024.
    Get a early to mid first round pick in 2025.

    Draft Picks
    2025 1st round pick (MTL)
    2024 1st round pick (VAN)
    4.
    MTL
    1. 2024 1st round pick (CBJ)
    Additional Details:
    4th OVR
    CBJ
      1. Mailloux, Logan ($875,000)+
      2. Beck, Owen ($885,000)+
      Additional Details
      Get a great RHD prospect,
      Get a great Center prospect (who plays that 200ft game)
      Get a late first in 2024.
      Get a early to mid first round pick in 2025.
      Draft Picks
      2025 1st round pick (MTL)
      2024 1st round pick (VAN)
      5.
      MTL
      1. 2024 1st round pick (OTT)
      Additional Details:
      5th OVR
      OTT
        1. Mailloux, Logan ($875,000)+
        2. Beck, Owen ($885,000)+
        Additional Details
        Get a great RHD prospect,
        Get a great Center prospect (who plays that 200ft game)
        Get a late first in 2024.
        Get a early to mid first round pick in 2025.
        Draft Picks
        2025 1st round pick (MTL)
        2024 1st round pick (VAN)
        Buyouts
        Retained Salary Transactions
        DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
        2024
        Logo of the MTL
        Logo of the ANA
        Logo of the SJS
        Logo of the CBJ
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the COL
        Logo of the MTL
        Logo of the MIN
        Logo of the MTL
        Logo of the MTL
        Logo of the SJS
        Logo of the MTL
        Logo of the MTL
        Logo of the EDM
        Logo of the WSH
        2025
        Logo of the CGY
        Logo of the MTL
        Logo of the PIT
        Logo of the MTL
        Logo of the VAN
        Logo of the MTL
        Logo of the DET
        Logo of the MTL
        Logo of the MTL
        Logo of the MTL
        2026
        Logo of the MTL
        Logo of the MTL
        Logo of the MTL
        Logo of the MTL
        Logo of the MTL
        Logo of the MTL
        Logo of the MTL
        ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
        23$83,500,000$76,000,416$1,170,000$3,977,500$7,499,584
        Left WingCentreRight Wing
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $7,850,000$7,850,000
        LW, RW
        UFA - 8
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $7,875,000$7,875,000
        C
        UFA - 7
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $6,500,000$6,500,000
        RW, LW
        M-NTC, NMC
        UFA - 4
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $3,250,000$3,250,000
        LW
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $5,500,000$5,500,000
        RW, LW
        M-NTC
        UFA - 4
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $1,100,000$1,100,000
        LW, RW
        RFA - 2
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $1,700,000$1,700,000
        C
        UFA - 2
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $3,400,000$3,400,000
        RW, LW
        UFA - 2
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $812,500$812,500
        LW, RW
        UFA - 2
        Lindstrom, Cayden
        $900,000$900,000
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $950,000$950,000 (Performance Bonus$3,500,000$4M)
        RW, LW
        RFA - 2
        Demidov, Ivan
        $900,000$900,000
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $775,000$775,000
        RW, LW
        RFA - 1
        Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $4,875,000$4,875,000
        LD
        M-NTC
        UFA - 3
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $3,500,000$3,500,000
        RD
        UFA - 2
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $1,925,000$1,925,000
        G
        M-NTC
        UFA - 2
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $1,400,000$1,400,000
        LD/RD
        RFA - 2
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $766,667$766,667
        RD
        UFA - 2
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $1,000,000$1,000,000
        G
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $867,500$867,500 (Performance Bonus$57,500$58K)
        LD
        RFA - 2
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $890,000$890,000
        G
        RFA - 2
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$420,000$420K)
        LD/RD
        RFA - 2
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $828,333$828,333
        LD/RD
        RFA - 1
        ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $4,450,000$4,450,000
        C
        M-NTC
        UFA - 2
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $10,500,000$10,500,000
        G
        NMC
        UFA - 3
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $3,362,500$3,362,500
        C, RW
        RFA - 3
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $2,900,000$2,900,000
        C, LW
        RFA - 4
        Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
        $762,500$762,500
        RD
        UFA - 1

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        Jan. 29 at 2:52 p.m.
        #1
        Future Ducks legend
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        You might convince Verbeek to move from 3-7 if they guy he wanted at 3 is gone and the next guy he wants is still going to be available at 7, but I don't think there's anyway to convince him to move down 20+ spots.
        Jan. 29 at 2:53 p.m.
        #2
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        I'd be shocked if the Sens moved their 1st this year for anything other than instant, young, long-term help (of the David Jiricek persuasion, for example). After the season they're having, Staios has gotta give fans something. sitting through another season like this only to not end up even using that good draft pick AGAIN would cause riots lmao
        sensonfire liked this.
        Jan. 29 at 2:54 p.m.
        #3
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        Easily decline for the jackets. I think they would drop down from 4 to 7 if you throw in a late first though
        Jan. 29 at 2:54 p.m.
        #4
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        No chance for ANA. If MTL wants to move up, maybe. But that’s gotta at least include MTL’s own ‘24 1st. No way we’re punting a big piece of that trade to ‘25
        MTLaveragefan and OldNYIfan liked this.
        Jan. 29 at 3:03 p.m.
        #5
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        Quoting: Jded
        No chance for ANA. If MTL wants to move up, maybe. But that’s gotta at least include MTL’s own ‘24 1st. No way we’re punting a big piece of that trade to ‘25


        I think you're right. Montreal will need to include their 2024 1st round pick to move up in the draft.
        MTLaveragefan, OldNYIfan and Jded liked this.
        Jan. 29 at 3:05 p.m.
        #6
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        Quoting: SK101
        Easily decline for the jackets. I think they would drop down from 4 to 7 if you throw in a late first though


        Yeah - I figure that trading back is much more realistic that trading out of the top 10.
        Jan. 29 at 3:10 p.m.
        #7
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        Quoting: SK101
        Easily decline for the jackets. I think they would drop down from 4 to 7 if you throw in a late first though


        Likely the pick from the Monahan trade could be interesting for CLB (and add a prospect).

        I would think CLB would give serious consideration to passing on Lindstrom or Eiserman for the right package, since they might want defencemen. If the draft went:
        1. Celebrini
        2. Levshunov/Demidov
        3. Demidov/Levshunov
        4. Lindstrom/Eiserman (in CLB's slot)

        That leaves CLB with one of Dickinson, (Eiserman or Lindstrom), Parekh, Buium or Silayev to pick from at #7 (after Minnesota and Ottawa picks one of those guys or Helenius or Catton).

        If their scouts sees theses guys at an equal level - might not hurt to get extra assets to end up with some guy you already want.
        SK101 and squashmaple liked this.
        Jan. 29 at 3:12 p.m.
        #8
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        Why bother? One or more of Lindstrom, Demidov, Eiserman, Helenius and Catton should be available when the Habs select, the cost to move up is just too much IMO
        Jan. 29 at 3:19 p.m.
        #9
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        Quoting: Campabee
        Why bother? One or more of Lindstrom, Demidov, Eiserman, Helenius and Catton should be available when the Habs select, the cost to move up is just too much IMO


        BUT:
        Lindstrom, Demidov or Eiserman >>>> Helenius and Catton.

        So the price might be worth it to secure a top line forward rather than a top 6 guy again. We have plenty of assets who will be competing for that top 6... but none for that top line role.

        Could you imagine the habs' top 6 with one of Lindstrom, Demidov or Eiserman?

        Slaf - Lindstrom - Dach : would be a BEAST line.

        Demidov - Dach - Slaf

        Demidov -Suzuki - Caufield

        Eiserman - Dach - Slaf
        Jan. 29 at 3:26 p.m.
        #10
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        I think Canucks might take this deal.
        Jan. 29 at 3:30 p.m.
        #11
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        MTL is drafting 5th. MIN and OTT won't finish the season lower than MTL.
        Jan. 29 at 3:32 p.m.
        #12
        habs1986
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        google NHL draft value chart. The usual price to move from 7 to 5OA is a 5th round pick . What you are suggesting is out in left field
        Jan. 29 at 3:33 p.m.
        #13
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        Quoting: MTLaveragefan
        BUT:
        Lindstrom, Demidov or Eiserman >>>> Helenius and Catton.

        So the price might be worth it to secure a top line forward rather than a top 6 guy again. We have plenty of assets who will be competing for that top 6... but none for that top line role.

        Could you imagine the habs' top 6 with one of Lindstrom, Demidov or Eiserman?

        Slaf - Lindstrom - Dach : would be a BEAST line.

        Demidov - Dach - Slaf

        Demidov -Suzuki - Caufield

        Eiserman - Dach - Slaf


        I get what you are saying but the cost to move from 7th to 4th is gonna be the 7th pick and like Hutson which imo is too much
        Jan. 29 at 3:43 p.m.
        #14
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        Edited Jan. 29 at 3:50 p.m.
        It is funny (to me) to see the difference in opinion between the "PeterStone" comment and then the "Campabee" comment immediately below it (and both are Canadiens' fans who are talking about the Habs!). Just goes to show how much opinions can differ. I tend to think that no team drops from #5 to #7 in the draft for anything less than a later first round pick being included, but I have not researched the statistics on that one. I can say that i do not recall teams moving back in the draft for minor pickups like a fifth round pick.

        I think if Montreal traded whatever they might get for Monahan at the trade deadline plus another prospect or 2 (like Farrell or Struble) they might be able to jump a couple of spaces in this year's draft if the other team has multiple players on its wish list.
        Jan. 29 at 3:48 p.m.
        #15
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        Quoting: KentMcNally
        It is funny (to me) to see the difference in opinion between the "PeterStone" comment and then the "Campabee" comment immediately below it (and both are Canadiens' fans who are talking about the Habs!). Just goes to show how much opinions can differ. I tend to think that no team drops from #5 to #7 in the draft for anything less than a later first round pick being included, but I have not researched the statistics on that one. I can say that i do not recall teams moving back in the draft for minor pickups like a fifth round pick.

        I think if Montreal traded whatever they might get for Monahan at the trade deadline plus another prospect or 2 (like Farrell or Struble) they might be able to jump a couple of spaces in this year's draft of the other team has multiple players on its wish list.


        Lol exactly !
        Jan. 29 at 3:49 p.m.
        #16
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        Quoting: LIRIK
        MTL is drafting 5th. MIN and OTT won't finish the season lower than MTL.


        I hope so!
        Jan. 29 at 4:07 p.m.
        #17
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        Quoting: MTLaveragefan
        Likely the pick from the Monahan trade could be interesting for CLB (and add a prospect).

        I would think CLB would give serious consideration to passing on Lindstrom or Eiserman for the right package, since they might want defencemen. If the draft went:
        1. Celebrini
        2. Levshunov/Demidov
        3. Demidov/Levshunov
        4. Lindstrom/Eiserman (in CLB's slot)

        That leaves CLB with one of Dickinson, (Eiserman or Lindstrom), Parekh, Buium or Silayev to pick from at #7 (after Minnesota and Ottawa picks one of those guys or Helenius or Catton).

        If their scouts sees theses guys at an equal level - might not hurt to get extra assets to end up with some guy you already want.


        I agree with you. Columbus is probably the most likely to be willing to trade down among the likely top 6 because their target is almost certainly D, but there's the heavy caveat that it'll probably be a new GM making these decisions and we don't know who that will be.
        MTLaveragefan liked this.
        Jan. 29 at 4:29 p.m.
        #18
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        Quoting: squashmaple
        I agree with you. Columbus is probably the most likely to be willing to trade down among the likely top 6 because their target is almost certainly D, but there's the heavy caveat that it'll probably be a new GM making these decisions and we don't know who that will be.


        Nah -he's probably a Bergevin-type-move away from being fired. He did manage to attrach big names to the team - got a lot of assets in trades.

        You can't blame him if some players are underperforming! Y'all have great prospect in your pool.
        Jan. 29 at 6:03 p.m.
        #19
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        Quoting: PeterStone
        google NHL draft value chart. The usual price to move from 7 to 5OA is a 5th round pick . What you are suggesting is out in left field

        The cost of moving from 7 to 5 on all three draft-pick-value charts I have is pick 53 (2016 chart), pick 61 (2018 chart) and pick 48 (2022 chart).

        The MOST that the first pick in the 5th round moves you up two slots is from pick 52 to pick 50.
        Jan. 29 at 11:42 p.m.
        #20
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        Yeah the bay area market is not where Mailloux is going to end up. SJ org would not insult is female season ticket holders by trading for him
        Jan. 30 at 12:20 a.m.
        #21
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        Quoting: PeterStone
        google NHL draft value chart. The usual price to move from 7 to 5OA is a 5th round pick . What you are suggesting is out in left field


        Looking at The Athletic's pick value chart, pick 5 is 8.2 GSVA and pick 7 is 7.1 GSVA, so the gap is 1.1 GSVA. Picks 61-64 all carry a 1.1 GSVA value. I've also noticed when looking at trades, the team moving up seems to pay a bit more than The Athletic's chart suggests (for instance, the Coyotes traded up to pick 11 a couple years back and it cost them 27, 34, and 45 which was a surplus of 1.8 GSVA, or the value of pick 45). A 5th round pick is worth 0.2 to 0.3 GSVA.
        Jan. 30 at 9:17 a.m.
        #22
        habs1986
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        Quoting: OldNYIfan
        The cost of moving from 7 to 5 on all three draft-pick-value charts I have is pick 53 (2016 chart), pick 61 (2018 chart) and pick 48 (2022 chart).

        The MOST that the first pick in the 5th round moves you up two slots is from pick 52 to pick 50.


        Thanks for correcting me. I probably misread the chart but the point is its not 3 first picks to move 2 spots. That's a ludicrous offer and a terrible misuse of assets. On top of that i dont see a difference in picks 2 to 10 in this years draft
        OldNYIfan liked this.
        Jan. 30 at 9:17 a.m.
        #23
        habs1986
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        Quoting: jamnjon
        Looking at The Athletic's pick value chart, pick 5 is 8.2 GSVA and pick 7 is 7.1 GSVA, so the gap is 1.1 GSVA. Picks 61-64 all carry a 1.1 GSVA value. I've also noticed when looking at trades, the team moving up seems to pay a bit more than The Athletic's chart suggests (for instance, the Coyotes traded up to pick 11 a couple years back and it cost them 27, 34, and 45 which was a surplus of 1.8 GSVA, or the value of pick 45). A 5th round pick is worth 0.2 to 0.3 GSVA.


        as i said below ...
        Thanks for correcting me. I probably misread the chart but the point is its not 3 first picks to move 2 spots. That's a ludicrous offer and a terrible misuse of assets. On top of that i dont see a difference in picks 2 to 10 in this years draft
        Jan. 30 at 10:04 a.m.
        #24
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        Quoting: PeterStone
        Thanks for correcting me. I probably misread the chart but the point is its not 3 first picks to move 2 spots. That's a ludicrous offer and a terrible misuse of assets. On top of that i dont see a difference in picks 2 to 10 in this years draft


        If you look closely - MTL doesnt send back it's first in the proposal.
        Jan. 30 at 10:56 a.m.
        #25
        habs1986
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        Quoting: MTLaveragefan
        If you look closely - MTL doesnt send back it's first in the proposal.


        Mailloux, 2024 VAN(or whatever team we trade Monahan for ) and 2025 first. 3 firsts. AND you trade Owen Beck high 2nd. This is a massive overpayment for marginal benefit
         
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