Team: 2023-24 St. Louis Blues

Initial Creation Date: Feb. 1, 2024

Published: Feb. 1, 2024

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

I think the Lindholm trade was a good indicator of how high Buchnevichs value could be.
In comparison:
Age: Both are going to be 29 this year, with Buch being slightly younger.
Production over the past 3 seasons:
* Lindholm: 73-105-178 --> Games Played: 211 --> PPG: 0.844
* Buchnevich: 73-109-182 --> Games Played: 183 --> PPG: 0.995

So by the numbers Buchnevich is a point per game player as opposed to Lindholm who is around a 70 point player. Both play similar roles for their team as they are important at 5v5, powerplay, and penalty kill.

Now here's where the value gets interesting. Lindholm, at the moment, is a rental. There was no contract in place when he was traded and he could end up walking in free agency. While I doubt that happens it is a possibility. On the other hand Buch has an extra year on his deal, instantly making him more valuable. If the Blues were to retain 50% of that deal, his value goes up more. The only difference in value is Buch is a winger (although he can play a little center) and Lindholm is a center which is a more premium position.

So at the very least Buch is worth the same as what Lindholm got.
That value being a late first round pick, 4th round pick, B prospect, C prospect, and a top 9 cap dump.

Now realistically speaking, the extra year on Buch's deal will cost a 2nd round pick, and 50% retained would cost an additional 2nd round pick. That's a lot but salary is the name of the game in the NHL and costs a lot. The problem is, will any team be willing to give 1 first, 3 seconds, a B prospect, C prospect, and NHL player for Buch, likely not. In that case, the Blues will look for a high end prospect that would cover the cost of all the 2nd round picks. (I value 2 late seconds as 1 late first so you could also view it as 2 firsts, a 2nd, B prospect, C prospect, and an NHL player).

That value is very similar to the Timo Meier trade:
Meier got a 1st, 2nd, B+ prospect (Mukhamadullin), young NHL player with 2nd round value (Zetterlund), a C prospect (Okhotiuk), and a cap dump (Johnsson).
In the deal above you would add another 2nd for the extra year on Buch's deal.

Every contender would likely be interested in Buch but a few of the teams that have specifically been named as being interested are the Oilers, Rangers, Flyers, Red Wings, Capitals, and the Bruins. Let's mock some trades below.

I know every fan will complain that it's overvalued in the trades but you saw what it cost to get Lindholm, it will cost more for Buch. It also depends if Army wants to move him or not. The blues aren't real contenders and moving Buch would greatly accelerate the rebuild. Even though Buch is an amazing player I don't think we reach contender status until he is in his later 30s so extending him might be the wrong move.

Note in the mock trades I went with the are slightly under the value Meier got. Buch likely gets more but it gets complicated making a trade that big.

I think of all the teams trading with Detroit makes the most sense for the Blues. They have the prospects the Blues would want and a deep enough farm system where they wouldn't be hurt trading away guys.

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