Edited Sep. 1, 2022 at 1:55 a.m.
Quoting: Juiceman
Am I wrong for thinking that a top goalie (1A starter) should play at least 50 games in a season (60% of the season)
I also think for evaluating a goaltender's individual performance, 5v5 stats are the most reliable
Over the last few months I've really tried to create a method out of the goalie "role" terms that get thrown around. While this isn't scientific; it does pretty much follow what NHL GM's have referenced in the pressers about goalie roles/expectations.
To me there is a difference between a "workhorse" (or what we used to call 10+ years ago the "starter") and what gets tossed around as 1A types. By definition a 1A means that there is a 1B; as opposed to what normally is a #1 vs #2 starter/backup situation. Then there is the "tandem" thing that gets tossed around and sometimes gets co-mingled with 1A/1B situations.
Of course, its goalies so everything is voodoo (meaning subject to change at a moments notice or a cold streak or a heater).
Game Starts by "category"
Type of Goaltender...Avg...Range
Workhorse....................66...59-72
1A...................................53...47-58
Tandem.........................41...36-46
1B...................................29...24-35
Backup..........................16...10-23 This role is the 2nd game of a B2B or every 6th game type of guy.
Spot Duty/Prospect.......5...1-9
This is all based on "pre-season" expectations.
So, a workhorse (66 games) is paired with a backup (16 games) for an 82 game expectation, etc. Any minor injuries get plugged with the "Spot Duty" or "Prospect" guy that is probably your AHL starter.
NHL Teams (according to me):
Workhorse goalies:
Andrei Vasilevskiy, John Gibson, Connor Hellebuyck, Jake Oettinger, Jacob Markstrom, Darcy Kuemper, Juuse Saros, Thatcher Demko. Keep in mind this is pre-season expectations (Kuemper without injury is expected to shoulder a 60ish game workload in Washington; Oettinger appears to be in Dallas as well).
1A goalies:
Sergei Bobrovsky, Jordan Binnington, Philipp Grubauer, Igor Shesterkin, Elvis Merzlikins, Jack Campbell, Matt Murray, Frederik Andersen, Ilya Sorokin, Carter Hart, Petr Mrazek, Tristan Jarry, Marc-Andre Fleury, Alexandar Georgiev, Vitek Vanecek, Jake Allen, Adin Hill, Karel Vejmelka
Shesterkin should be moving towards the "workhorse" role but he hasn't knocked on that door just yet despite all of his other accolades. I have Vegas (Hill) in this category as a "carry-over" from when it was Lehner. Too soon to know if this will be a 1A/1B or a tandem so just left it alone for now.
Tandems
Jonathan Quick-Cal Petersen, Ville Husso-Alex Nedeljkovic, Cam Talbot-Anton Forsberg, Jeremy Swayman-Linus Ullmark, Eric Comrie-Craig Anderson
Some of these are debatable but based on pressers from Yzerman about Husso's expectations it fits my tandem criteria moreso than the 1A role. Boston is tough as it is transitioning to a 1A but Swayman hasn't pulled away that much yet from Ullmark. Comrie should not be thrown in to a huge workload and doesn't appear that Buffalo will do that to him yet.
1B
Semyon Varlamov, MacKenzie Blackwood, Antti Raanta, Pavel Francouz, Martin Jones, Casey DeSmith, Ilya Samsonov, Jaroslav Halák, Joonas Korpisalo, Thomas Greiss, Sam Montembeault, Spencer Knight, Filip Gustavsson, Felix Sandstrom, Logan Thompson, Alex Stalock, Stuart Skinner, Jon Gillies/Ivan Prosvetov
Backups
Kevin Lankinen, Charlie Lindgren, Scott Wedgewood, Anthony Stolarz, Brian Elliott, David Rittich, Spencer Martin, Dan Vladar
Spot Duty/Prospects
everyone else
These are ranked within category by AAV.
Not sure what you all think but it helps me to categorize them and then see what my expectations are based on their talent but applied against their expected workload.
If you look at the teams with really good tandems and 1B goalies; they are all teams that shouldn't fall off if their "starter" gets hurt for prolonged periods. They might not have "elite" goaltending compared to the workhorse teams but have a higher floor if things go badly.