Quoting: mondo
Yeah, and I backed up this point. I didn't say they peak between 23-28 because I googled "NHL Player Peak Age", click the first link, and say where the lines were the highest. I wonder if you actually read the methodology for the chart instead of demanding everyone else post data. It's 5-6 years out of date and WAR has evolved since then.
Maybe look up what "face value" means. The "Defenseman" line as a very clear decline between 24 and 30. Without any additional information, you would derive the conclusion that defenseman peak at 23 and get worse through 24-30. The chart doesn't provide the information regarding sample sizes for each age or the overall ability of players at each age or the number of new players debuting at each age. You'd have to go to the article page to get that information which you haven't posted.
A better way to convey the information would be to determine the change in WAR between players who debut at certain ages. Players who debut at 18 versus those who debut at 24 will have different career paths and that's not reflected on the chart.
Weegar is a guy I'd take a bet on to play well into his 30s. A lot of guys do fall off but there definitely is a handful of top 4 guys in their 30s who are still decent and Weegar could easily join them.
Would've been better to use examples of teams that haven't reached the Stanley Cup Finals using this strategy but whatever.
"Yeah, and I backed up this point. I didn't say they peak between 23-28 because I googled "NHL Player Peak Age", click the first link, and say where the lines were the highest. I wonder if you actually read the methodology for the chart instead of demanding everyone else post data. It's 5-6 years out of date and WAR has evolved since then."
Age curves in hockey have been known for a while now. A lot of research by guys like Tulsky who is AGM of hurricanes. Plenty of data showing when players peak. You can choose to look at all the data or just use what you feel it is without any actual data.
"Maybe look up what "face value" means. The "Defenseman" line as a very clear decline between 24 and 30. Without any additional information, you would derive the conclusion that defenseman peak at 23 and get worse through 24-30. The chart doesn't provide the information regarding sample sizes for each age or the overall ability of players at each age or the number of new players debuting at each age. You'd have to go to the article page to get that information which you haven't posted."
Or you could actually think when you look at the chart. Same reason why defenceman don't peak at 39. I think most people would understand that lmao.
"Weegar is a guy I'd take a bet on to play well into his 30s. A lot of guys do fall off but there definitely is a handful of top 4 guys in their 30s who are still decent and Weegar could easily join them."
Ok if he's playing well at 33 I'll delete my account. If he isn't you delete your account. Fair?
"Would've been better to use examples of teams that haven't reached the Stanley Cup Finals using this strategy but whatever."
In 2015 when their cap wasn't an issue lmao? The Vlasic / Burns / Couture / Karlsson deals didn't exist. Their cap was shorter term fair value contracts. Thornton/Marleau were taking 3 year deals. Pavelski was on a 5 year deal. Not 8 year gigantic deals.
Predators had one of the best cap situations in 2016/2017. Only 3 contracts 6M+. This is also before the Duchene / Johansen. Only big long term deal was Subban and that was signed when he was 25.