Wow... Didn't expect this so soon... Congrats to Buffalo for getting Dahlin under contract for the next 8 years and congrats to Dahlin for getting the bag

If the Leafs don't win the cup this year, please make it Buffalo

$11 for a Dman who doesn't even get mentioned in Norris Trophy winner talks.

Should have let him walk away into UFA and be another team's anchor.

He was 100% in the conversation, the voters just decided that they needed names and not the best players in the top 3

I'm sure this deal will work out just fine, but it's shocking that Dahlin got so much more than Makar and Fox

Thank you. Cap hits shouldn't be viewed in terms of dollars, but in terms of percentage in light of the cap growing year-over-year.

There is some sticker-shock, for sure; but, for a BUF team that has its core locked up for the near and long-term future, I like this signing. It would be one thing if they were a cap-crunch team, but this works out great for them, IMO. Dahlin is a great D, who already is a top-pair guy at 23, and should only get better.

Mentioned?

He received 13.37% of the votes, finishing 8th. 18 players received votes and Dahlin was the youngest of all 18. He also would have finished higher had he not gotten injured towards the end of the season.

How is Dahlin worth 9M when Sanderson got 8M?

People see a contract over 10 million and instantly vote no. Dahlin's already a top ten d-man in the league and he's only 23. With the cap going up I don't think Buffalo will regret this deal at all. We can probably expect an Owen Power contract soon.

This deal takes him from age 24-31, so it covers his entire prime. $11 million is a big number, but with the growing cap and how good Dahlin has become, it's worth it. The Sabres are locking this team in and I think it's going to pay off.

Damn Sergachev deal looks really good now

He may not be worth it now, but he is close. I think this will be considered a good deal when it is all said and done.

bust

He's only 23, so calling it a 'career year' isn't really a complaint. It's not like this result comes out of no where after five or six years of mediocrity. It's just the first year he's been the obvious number one in Buffalo and there's been enough talent to have a competitive team.

My thoughts exactly. There's a good chance the cap will top $100 million halfway through this deal, so $11 million won't be an issue.

This is a friggen STEAL compared to Nurse.

Other than that ... it's pretty big overpay.

Not to get too deep into the mathematical side of this, but I think its important to consider this deal in the broader context of what other players, such as Makar, Miro, and Q. Hughes signed back in 2021-22 to have a better understanding of the value of Dahlin's deal. We should consider the Present Value of all these deals, in their entirety, back in 2021-22 by discounting them back based on the annual cap increase YoY. For this purpose, I assumed a 4.79% growth in 2024-25 and 5.14% growth in 2025-26, and a constant 4.00% growth each year thereafter. Let's consider:

Miro Heiskanen
Present Value: $57,703,775
Term: 8 years
AAV: $7,212,972

Cale Makar
Present Value: $48,044,169
Term: 6 years
AAV: $8,007,362

Quinn Hughes
Present Value: $41,905,192
Term: 6 years
AAV: $6,984,199

When combining the bridge and long term deal of Dahlin, we can get a better picture of what this contract is worth:
Rasmus Dahlin
Present Value: $82,720,365
Term: 11 years
AAV: $7,520,033

We can see that Dahlin is right in line with other star defensemen, although on the higher end in terms of AAV. However, if we extrapolate and assume that the next contracts of Makar, Heiskanen, and Hughes all start with an initial Cap Hit % of 12% with a duration of 7 years, we can consider the value of these contracts:

Miro Heiskanen
Present Value: $114,345,394
Term: 15 years
AAV: $7,623,026

Cale Makar
Present Value: $104,685,789
Term: 13 years
AAV: $8,052,753

Quinn Hughes
Present Value: $98,546,812
Term: 13 years
AAV: $7,580,524

Rasmus Dahlin
Present Value: $82,720,365
Term: 11 years
AAV: $7,520,033

I think it is an accurate and fair assumption to consider Dahlin is the same category of skill and rank of these similar players. So even though the sticker shock is quite high, he is effectively the least expensive out of the other players under these assumptions. For reference, Makar and Miro are going to be pushing a minimum 12M-13M on the open market, while Dahlin will never see that day until 2032.

With the way things have been going for the NHL and its viewership that might be more like 7-10 years.

Its a great deal. He is worth every penny. Everyone here saying overpay or its just too much doesnt remember that he is still only 23 years old. This contract takes him right through most of the prime years for a Dman and he's only going to get better and better. He'll have many Norris worthy seasons in his long career, although whether the NHL will acknowledge him is another matter.

Not an overpay at all. Top 5 NHL dman

capfriendly when a top player doesn't sign for 14 cents

... and player decline may start from the fall 2024, what a bad contract
Also don't get why some of you claim the cap will climb to $100M+ in few years time

Amazing contribution! Loved this mathematical breakdown. If you do these breakdowns often somewhere, I'd totally sign up to read it (maybe even with a paywall).

Haha thanks, don't do anything like that (just a recent Finance/Math grad). Just saw the reviews and thought it was more unfavorable then I would have imagined but I assumed some people wouldn't have considered the increase in cap over the years. I really just wanted to illustrate how the bridge v max term commitment is viewed at the original timing date. He's contract is pretty much in line with any extension Makar/Heiskanen/Hughes get once their contracts expire and while Dahlin might not be at that level, I'd say it's worth the gamble to take on him.

Big signing for both parties

Makar looking at this like 👀