I don’t know what to tell you but Nemec at 900kx3 years+4 years of RFA control has significantly more value than Pettersson at 4 millx2 years

Even if you’re arguing he’s a 10 million dollar player, that would only be 12 mill in surplus value.

Nemec to provide that would need to be a 5 mill player to provide that over his ELC alone

You're assuming Nemec pans out. That is a risk. "Can't miss prospects" flame out all the time. Griffin Reinhart is a great example of that.

Tom Willander and Canuck's first-round pick to Pittsburgh?
Ugh no thanks.
Canucks are not going to take that route.

This is like the equivalent of turning Tyler Myers into Erik Karlsson for feee

I think the value is a little high on the Petterson one, but I think this could very well be what happens. I don't think Dubas will mess around, if we're out of it he'll sell and if were in playoffs he'll go all in.

Isn't Nemec playing on the first pair?? Or am I wrong about that.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Nemec isn't going anywhere for a long time. Him and Luke Hughes will be the anchors of our blueline for years to come

Should be called "How to set yourself up for disappointment"

I think it’s a generous estimation on my part to call Pettersson an 8.5 mill player. That’s 9 mill in surplus value over the 2 years

A 1st has been shown over comps to be worth about 6 mill.

In order for Nemec to surpass that remaining 3 mill he would have to be a 2 mill player over his ELC (again ignoring his RFA), or approximately a mediocre 3rd pairing guy. He is currently already playing 21 minutes a night of quality NHL hockey on the top pairing at 19 years old

But bahl to provide that value would need to be about a 2.5 mill player, or an above average 3rd pairing LHD. Which is basically what he is

Both Devils and Canucks decline wihtout hesitation. Canucks aren't trading their best d prospect and a first for an aging winger that likely wouldn't have the same impact without Crosby. And for new Jersey that trade is laughable. Marcus Pettersson doesn't have close to that value

Both heavily lopsided in Pittsburgh’s favour

Nemec is currently playing top 4 minutes in the NHL, and even if he wasn't this is a fallacy I see on this website all the time. Whenever someone is selling their players they argue that prospects are less valuable because they aren't a sure thing. This is a line of argument that is completely nonsensical; it would mean that first round picks also have no value. Nemec is a prospect of a quality that very, very rarely gets traded.

Here are 4 prospects ranked in the top 10 in a given year.

Prospect W
W was drafted thanks to his exceptional skating and offensive toolkit, but he's added strength since his draft year to better handle defensive responsibilities in the NHL. Still, it's his scoring touch that makes him a potential top-pairing rearguard.

Prospect X
X is another top-prospect center who has a big upside. X has been playing in [other country] the past two seasons. He has worked hard and impressed at the World Juniors Championship.

X will join his fellow countrymen on the [team] next year. [NHL player] is one player X would love to play with next season. X has speed, skill and finesse. Look for him to have an impact for the [team] and their top six.

Prospect Y
Y is a player with tremendous skill and has the potential to be the next big thing.

In the OHL, Y put up some impressive numbers, and his [player size] will allow him to score with skill and ease. If Y continues to grow and develop at an alarming rate, he could become a household name in as little as two years.

He has the skills, potential and supporting cast to be a breakout player in [year]

Prospect Z
His mature two-way game is head and shoulders above most defensive prospects of the same age, and he will be an important defender for the [team] in the not-too-distant future. I believe that another year in the AHL would do Z some good rather than toiling away as the sixth or seventh defender for [team]. Getting big minutes in the AHL would be more beneficial for him at this point as he prepares to become a minute-munching, top-pairing quality defender for the [team] for many years to come.

Hint, 3 of those guys are not good. 2 only lasted 3-4 years in the NHL

Canucks counter offer Tyler Myers retained to 3m for Pickering and a 1st. Seen Myers is scoring at a top pair Defenceman's pace. /s
Vancouver isn't dealing Willander unless we are getting a 20 year old Right shot D who has size and is already a great 2 way D.

Based on nemec's 21 minutes a night on the top pairing RHD, I'd put his value at about 6.25 mill (severson contract). That's 5.3 mill in surplus value for him as a 19 year old RIGHT NOW. Probably more surplus value than Pettersson has as a LHD at 4 mill.

And again, 19 years old, 2 more ELC years after+4 RFA years

Yep. It says so in the description

Fair enough. But to get you have to give. You want an elite shutdown defenseman, with term, from a division rival, who is still in contention....scraps won't cut it.

a 1st round pick and a cost controlled young LHD with size is not scraps.

And again, this is based on Pitt selling.

How about a 40 goal scorer who is 3rd in the NHL in expected goals? Those guys aren't cheap.

The value provided by a rental has a limit.

You're asking for like 15 mill in surplus value for half a year of Guentzel.

A low 1st and a guy you said yourself is equivalent to a 2nd is scraps for a guy of his quality. Also, they have to justify to their fans and players why they are trading their top LHD. They have to be overpaid.

How do you evaluate WAR for an NHL forward?

It's really not. It's in line with the previous market set by a guy like Chychrun

No, it means there is risk. Everything has risk. An established player can fall off or get hurt. A prospect can flame out.

But more risk is on less data. Prospects have less data with good players so they are more risky. Picks also have inherent risk. Risk does not remove value entirely, it just devalues.

Petterson is an established piece. A 1st isn't. Nemec isn't. Hence the trade. You can argue value but don't strawman me. Risk is inverse to value. Petterson has less risk.

WAY too much holiday cheer drank from your flask on that Petterson trade.
Title of your AGM was dead on!