those are really good arguments.

At this point, yes! That's a given based on the scarcity dynamic with just 1 take.

If the Preds for example become sellers then Novak's contract at 800k becomes very attractive. He may not get a Tanner Jeannot return but Novak price will be higher than Monahan IMO

Good luck

Monahan Analytics are quite poor besides stating face offs, pp production he won't have pp1 and scarcity why he's worth a 1st?

Value is relative to the market. In Monahan's case you need to first examine how many better centers are out there and available. Lindholm is obviously the best in show. He will get a 1st +. Then you have a load of guys behind him, in the Monahan area, who might get moved. Monahan, Novak, Wennberg, Henrique. That glut of competition isn't good for the Habs and Monahan, it will drive the price down. Why trade a 1st for Monahan when I could trade a 2nd for Novak? Will 3 teams all trade 1sts for centers? That would be a very rare occurrence.

Unless MTL plans on extending him taking the best offer is the clear move. If that happens to be a 2nd rounder it'd be foolish not to take it.

Then he'll remain a Hab. 🙄

Pending ufa One way 3rd line c who is a power play merchant on a bad team and wouldnt get that slot on a good team? And demanding a 1st for him?
Lol, good luck, enjoy loosing him as a ufa

Novak would get more than a 2nd cmon now. That contract and you have the Tanner Jeannot, Brandon Hagel examples. Contenders will bend over backwards for that small AAV which also makes Monahan very valuable at retention with an under 1m cap hit.

Add to that most of those centers arent available atm including Novak when the Preds are in a playoff push.

And that goes to the point of how many 1sts will be moved for centers?. If Novak and Lindholm are both getting 1sts, will 3 teams move one all for the same position? That doesn't happen very often.

Couldn't say it better myself. Mtl if they are true to Monahan in trading him they get the best offer and if it's not a 1st and just a 2nd instead they take it. Hughes already said he'd trade him just not for peanuts

I mean maybe but you probably have to eat something to make it happen

This draft is quite shallow. You're going to be surprised how many 1sts get moved at this TDL IMO. A late 1st has about a 30%-50% chance of becoming an NHL regular. The draft after picks 21-22 this season has CSS throwing darts at a board.

Those players were rfas and in the case of Novak he's a ufa. Also using just tampa players is cherry picking a bit don't you think. Hagel was amazing the year he was traded with term and rfa control and jeannot came off a 20 goal season with a grinder play style who was not avaliable for trade and hence the cost to aquire him

I mean lots of 1sts have been moved before too but in general 3 1sts don't all go for the same position. You would need 4+ teams who are willing to move 1sts all competing for centers to drive that kind of market value which doesn't happen and especially for a 3C like Monahan.

This climate and this draft have laid those seeds. I don't know how you can discount a very open field. Dom at theathletic even has a massive article detailing the nature of the lack of super teams and anyones game this season. That adds to the leverage of sellers whom number maybe 5 at this point and none have a center option as attractive as Monahan. Lindholm isnt guaranteed to move and neither is Novak as both teams are competing for the playoffs rn. You need to adjust your arguments accordingly. Of course, that will change in all likelihood but that change to the current climate which dictates a 1st plus for Monahan going by the said evidence you use to counter said claims.

I mean when even you say 'this isn't going to happen but if it did Monahan might get a 1st', I think we're pretty much done here.

There were 10 trades total for 1st last year and how many were for centers? 3 horvat, o'reilly and newhook (more of a winger and after the playoffs)

That is the nature of sports. Things change and you need to adjust your perceived facts. Simply bringing up the past said this, the past said that, isnt foolproof. That is my point.

So 2.

If it's only a 30-50% on becoming an nhler why would mtl not just keep him if the odds they don't even get a 200 game player? Like you said the draft isn't good and throwing darts so why would mtl who needs a player like Monahan do that

OK and then we can agree that things would need to change for Monahan to be realistically getting a 1st. As of right now, it is highly unlikely Monahan gets a 1st.

Maybe not but the Habs position is entirely favourable at the moment. I dont see Hughes settling for less unless a bunch of teams go on a Kings esque slide. The loser point has created this environment where very bad teams like the Islanders are in the playoffs race despite being the 2nd worst defensive club in the NHL which the has been the opposite of their identity for years.
The market is ripe for a haul.

Yep defenseman really were the top ones: Chychrun (post season), orlov, sandin (post season), ekholm, gavrikov, provorov (post season), hronek (horvat trade stuff)

If you want a clear example in recent events of a forward with more or less production than Monahan (28 pts in 45 games) that went for a 1st plus with conditions. Andrew Copp (35 pts in 56 games)