Obviously, it seems that Cody Ceci has already gotten himself a role in the starting lineup, playing a top 4 role with Morgan Rielly. However, I decided to make this post to discuss whether or not he should play at all.
First, let's take a look at his stats. Ceci is known to be a stay-at-home defenceman. At even strength, his expected goals against ranks in the 83rd percentile out of 100, while his shots against rank in the 56th. In terms of rates, his xGA/60 ranks in the 90th percentile while his CA/60 ranks in the 69th. Based on these stats, we can understand that he is good at preventing quality scoring chances and slightly below replacement at preventing shot quantity in general.
However, due to the fact that he generates very little offence, is horrible at moving the puck in transition and is a liability on the penalty kill, his overall impact and WAR is below replacement level. While I am not concerned about his lack of offensive play, it is more his poor transition ability that makes me worried.
To play alongside Rielly who is horrible at preventing shots & scoring chances, it is important for his partner to not only be very good defensively, but also strong moving the puck up the ice. Ceci can continue to be a workhorse in his own end but if he can't get the puck out, then they will be undersiege since Rielly will do nothing to help him.
This is why I feel Dermott would be the perfect partner for Rielly. He is excellent at expressing shots & chances, but is also one of the best in the league in transition. It just seems that given his lack of sample size in a role that big, they aren't going to put him with Rielly for the playoffs.
Another issue is, if you play Dermott with Rielly, then who does Barrie & Ceci play with? It would probably make sense to scratch Ceci and play Barrie with Sandin, but according to many analysts, the Sandin-Barrie pairing performed horribly during their brief stint during the regular season while Sandin-Ceci were a lot more stable. However, it just doesn't seem right to scratch Barrie.
My sense is that Ceci will get at least 2 games in the play-in, provided that he looks decent enough in the intrasquad games and exhibition. I think if it were up to Dubas, Ceci would be a guarantee, but luckily for Leafs fans, he's not our coach. I think the same goes for Robertson as it does for Sandin. If the youngsters prove they are worthy of a lineup spot, Keefe (at least based on what's he said in the media) will make that happen. It would not surprise me at all to see the Leafs go 7 defenders at some point and bench one of the depth guys, like Gauthier or Engvall.
My sense is that Ceci will get at least 2 games in the play-in, provided that he looks decent enough in the intrasquad games and exhibition. I think if it were up to Dubas, Ceci would be a guarantee, but luckily for Leafs fans, he's not our coach. I think the same goes for Robertson as it does for Sandin. If the youngsters prove they are worthy of a lineup spot, Keefe (at least based on what's he said in the media) will make that happen. It would not surprise me at all to see the Leafs go 7 defenders at some point and bench one of the depth guys, like Gauthier or Engvall.
Ceci is a decent 3rd pairing RHD. They shouldn't give him top 4 minutes unless he improved during quarenteen though.
My sense is that Ceci will get at least 2 games in the play-in, provided that he looks decent enough in the intrasquad games and exhibition. I think if it were up to Dubas, Ceci would be a guarantee, but luckily for Leafs fans, he's not our coach. I think the same goes for Robertson as it does for Sandin. If the youngsters prove they are worthy of a lineup spot, Keefe (at least based on what's he said in the media) will make that happen. It would not surprise me at all to see the Leafs go 7 defenders at some point and bench one of the depth guys, like Gauthier or Engvall.
Regarding Ceci and the play in and playoffs - Only Jake Muzzin has more playoff experience than Ceci, Ceci actually performed quite well for Ottawa in there little run a few seasons ago, even when they had Karlsson Ceci still played over 20 mins a night - I can pretty much guarantee Ceci will see 20 mins a night this playoff season the Leafs don't have other options none of Sandin, Dermott or Liljegren are at this point better options
Regarding Ceci and the play in and playoffs - Only Jake Muzzin has more playoff experience than Ceci, Ceci actually performed quite well for Ottawa in there little run a few seasons ago, even when they had Karlsson Ceci still played over 20 mins a night - I can pretty much guarantee Ceci will see 20 mins a night this playoff season the Leafs don't have other options none of Sandin, Dermott or Liljegren are at this point better options
Not just that, under Babcock and now Keefe, Ceci has been adquate and really that's all the Leafs need out of him. Let Rielly, Muzzin, Dermott and Holl do the heavy lifting so to speak.
Columbus will no doubt play a rough, physical style and I don't think having Sandin in the lineup helps right now.
I wouldn't be opposed to them trying:
Rielly - Dermott
Muzzin - Holl
Ceci - Barrie
See how it looks in camp. If it looks fine try it out for the exhibition game. If it looks fine in the exhibition game try it in the play in. It would also give them information to help them prepare for next year.
I can't see Sandin getting in unless it is injury replacement.
Sandin and Ceci worked pretty well together.
Sandin and Barrie did not.
The latter pair had to be sheltered with offensive zone starts - starts I would rather see going to the Rielly pair in the playoffs. Defensively Sandin and Barrie were bad. If you have a subscription to NHL.com, and spare time go back and watch games in which Sandin and Ceci were paired together, vs games in which Sandin and Barrie were paired together. Especially watch the two pairings in the defensive zone. How poorly the Sandin/Barrie pair covered in front of the net. How easily teams cycled against them. But even in the offensive and neutral zone, Sandin looks less confident playing with Barrie. He doesn't seem to try to create much when with Barrie and instead is trying to be the responsible one, waiting for the 3-on-1 against while Barrie plays the dwinger position. A young offensive D should be the one in the pairing trying to be creative and taking some risks confident that they have a partner who can bail them out most of the time.
Yes I remember watching Sandin & Barrie play together during the time Ceci was out, they were disastrous in their own end, gave up a number of odd-man rushes & were on the ice for a bunch of goals. I definitely don't think it is a good fit for a rookie to play alongside someone who plays with such a lack of responsibility. It would be interesting to have one of Barrie/Ceci on the left side. Preferably Barrie cuz he can skate, maybe in sheltered minutes it'll work.
No.
Muzzin-Holl
Rielly-Dermott
Marincin-Barrie.
If they dress 7 d they can give him a few defensive minutes and pk time but hes still the leafs 5th best penalty killer
I mean, Marincin's decent at moving the puck out of the zone, but he's horrible at preventing scoring chances. Not sure if that's the kinda partner that suits Barrie, but they don't have many options.
Regarding Ceci and the play in and playoffs - Only Jake Muzzin has more playoff experience than Ceci, Ceci actually performed quite well for Ottawa in there little run a few seasons ago, even when they had Karlsson Ceci still played over 20 mins a night - I can pretty much guarantee Ceci will see 20 mins a night this playoff season the Leafs don't have other options none of Sandin, Dermott or Liljegren are at this point better options
I wouldn't say Ceci did well. IIRC, during that 2017 series against Pittsburgh, him & Phaneuf undersiege in their own end giving a ton of shots & scoring chances. The only reason that series went to 7 games was because of goaltending.
I wouldn't say Ceci did well. IIRC, during that 2017 series against Pittsburgh, him & Phaneuf undersiege in their own end giving a ton of shots & scoring chances. The only reason that series went to 7 games was because of goaltending.
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