Quoting: mondo
Was about to make a post but you said I what I would've said so I'll just concur. The CHL still has a lot of value in the 19-20 year olds that are signed. Only way you'll see CHL guys in the AHL if they were given an exemption like Wright was.
They do...but as do NHL teams that draft them. How well a CHL develops its 19-20 year olds can have a big impact on a players draft stock and future success.
Quoting: Pompadour_de_Armstrong
The problem with this idea is that each of those organizations are making their rules in their own interests. They aren't interested in the NHL's perspective or prospect development ultimately. You are absolutely right that it would make a better pipeline for NHL success, but it's like proposing world peace. It just doesn't mean anything.
The NHL's agreement with the CHL is what prevents simply making a "Shane Wright-rule". They can't just make a new rule on their own to bypass it. I don't know how you plausibly convince the CHL to expand the exemptions. They want to protect their product, and that change greatly affects the CHL. They aren't interested in negotiating their sweetheart deal. It could kill off junior hockey as we know it.
Same with the NCAA. They won't want to open a new can of worms with amateur status unless it ultimately benefits them-- that one is potentially easier to solve, but still messy.
All the organizations have their own interests, which they have a duty to protect. But much of this is about CHL old-boys-club hanging onto the past.
The CHL agreement runs until 2029, so NHL would have to give something up in order to keep control of their players. In practice, even if amended, most junior-eligible players would return to their leagues. But they could find middle ground, where maybe a couple of players per team could be eligible for AHL in their D+2 season (the "Shane Wright exemption").
The NCAA issue is tricky.
From the NCAA side, it is a governing body overseeing all athletes (and dominated by football)...they aren't changing their rules. They view of CHL as 'professional league' when it is not much different that USHL, which maintains eligibility. The biggest difference being a couple hundred bucks in stipend money. The CHL doesn't want to lose their players to NCAA, so they continue to have them sign 'professional contracts' when they could just as easily have them sign an 'amateur contract'. The CHL teams recruit with the mantra that kids can get the best of both worlds (play CHL and get money towards education). But there have been many changes.
First, the percentage of players that actually get money for education is far less than what they advertise. Many get funds to take online classes. Some studies have shown that less than half the players promises funds actually receive them (and the actual dollar amount is around one-quarter of whats promised). And they have shortened the time period to access these funds (so you may be promised four years of tuition covered, you cannot access funds after two years).
Second, the delta between what CHL promises towards education and the value of a full ride scholarship gets wider every year. In best-case scenario in CHL, you would get the amount pegged to the cheapest local university, even if you do not attend that school. So that is maybe $8k. In US, tuition is often 5x-10x more expensive.
Third, is that USHL and other amateur leagues that feed into NCAA have caught up to CHL in terms of development (and according to some,
the USHL has surpassed the CHL). In the past, a player would have a better path to becoming a pro by playing in CHL. Now, that is no longer the case.
Fourth, NCAA players graduate nearly 90% of their players. Only about one-quarter of CHL players receive a degree. If we are talking strictly NHL development, maybe that shouldn't matter a whole lot. And decades ago, maybe it didn't. But most kids these days will want a degree. And if CHL keeps losing top talent to USHL and Junior A (just look at top-5 in recent drafts), it will dilute its on-ice product.
Fifth, the NCAA wants the best players (ahem, "student-athletes") too. If CHL players were allowed to maintain amateur status until they turn 18 (or their draft year), they would get a whole bunch of good players instantly. (The players would have to want their amateur status and go through the NCAA's eligibility process).
Sixth, the biggest arguments from Junior A and USHL for recruiting players over CHL is that they are amateur leagues. (NTDP is separate beast, but that is for American players only). If CHL views USHL's rise as a threat, by opening up their leagues to having 'amateur contracts', they could neutralize the threat. Instead of losing players to NCAA, they would be keeping or gaining many younger top players. If anything, it would just make them slightly younger leagues.
Okay, off the soapbox.
Carry on...