How Winnipeg should respond if Montreal decides to offersheet PLD

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: sensonfire

Team: 2023-24 Winnipeg Jets

Initial Creation Date: Mar. 30, 2023

Published: Mar. 30, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

1. Montreal can initiate an offersheet for PLD on Tuesday July 4th at 5:00PM.

July 4th is the Tuesday following the 2023 NHL draft and is later than June 26th.

Winnipeg can always trade PLD to another team as a rental before July 4th.

Or acquire Montreal's 2024 2nd from Arizona.

2. If the offersheet from Montreal has an AAV greater than 4.2 million, Winnipeg should not match it.

Winnipeg will then receive at least one 1st round pick in compensation.

Montreal's 1st last year was #1 overall and it is going to be in the Top 6 this year.

Getting a potentially Top 6 pick for 2024 because Montreal was dumb enough to offersheet PLD should make Winnipeg feel pretty good.

3. If the offersheet from Montreal has an AAV of 4.2 million or less, Winnipeg should match it and treat PLD as a rental with a NTC.

Winnipeg should then do what they can to build up the roster to go on a playoff run next year.

Given that Wheeler, Scheifele, Niederrieter, Dillon, DeMelo and Hellebuyck will all be UFAs.

I would also recommend doing so without spending any picks from the first three rounds of the draft to keep all options for an offersheet open.

However, this would require PLD to take a pay cut of at least 1.8 million for one year.

So, the risk that PLD would sign an offersheet in this case is rather low.

4. I would also recommend making a trade with Nashville to get back Winnipeg's 2024 2nd.

The point of this would be to leave all options open for an offersheet against Montreal.

5. Once the nightmare of a PLD offersheet from Montreal is over, Winnipeg can then respond with an offersheet of their own against any of Montreal's RFAs, as long as they are eligible.

I provide a list of them below.

Free Agent Signings

RFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Dubois, Pierre-Luc		1	$4,200,000

Trades

WPG

2024 2nd round pick (WPG)

NSH

Niederreiter, Nino
2024 4th round pick (WPG)

Additional Details:

Nashville should view this trade as getting a free 4th round pick.

Whether this trade works or is good value for either team is beside the point.

The point is to get back that 2024 2nd round pick, so Winnipeg can leave all options open for an offersheet against Montreal.

WPG

Caufield, Cole [RFA Rights]
Gurianov, Denis [RFA Rights]
Harvey-Pinard, Rafaël [RFA Rights]
Ylönen, Jesse [RFA Rights]

MTL

This is who Winnipeg can offer-sheet from Montreal for the 2023 off-season.

WPG

MTL

This is who Winnipeg can offer-sheet from Montreal for the 2024 off-season.

WPG

MTL

This is who Winnipeg can offer-sheet from Montreal for the 2025 off-season.

WPG

Dach, Kirby

MTL

This is who Winnipeg can offer-sheet from Montreal for the 2026 off-season.

WPG

MTL

https://montrealhockeynow.com/2023/03/28/montreal-canadiens-possible-canadiens-negotiation-tactic-to-pry-pierre-luc-dubois-from-jets/

WPG

2024 2nd round pick (MTL)

ARI

Heinola, Ville

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2023
2024
2025

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
16	$82,500,000	$63,257,858	$0	$1,150,000	$19,242,142

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Connor, Kyle $7,142,857$7,142,857 LW UFA - 3	Scheifele, Mark $6,125,000$6,125,000 C NMC UFA - 1	Wheeler, Blake $800,000$800,000 ($300,000$300K) RW NTC UFA - 1
Perfetti, Cole $894,167$894,167 ($850,000$850K) LW, C RFA - 1	Dubois, Pierre-Luc $4,200,000$4,200,000 C UFA - 8	Ehlers, Nikolaj $6,000,000$6,000,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 2
Gustafsson, David $775,000$775,000 LW, C RFA - 1	Lowry, Adam $3,250,000$3,250,000 C M-NTC UFA - 3	Appleton, Mason $2,166,667$2,166,667 RW UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Morrissey, Joshua $6,250,000$6,250,000 LD NMC UFA - 5	DeMelo, Dylan $3,000,000$3,000,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 1	Hellebuyck, Connor $6,166,667$6,166,667 G NMC UFA - 1
Dillon, Brenden $3,900,000$3,900,000 LD UFA - 1	Pionk, Neal $5,875,000$5,875,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 2
	Schmidt, Nate $5,950,000$5,950,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 2
Capobianco, Kyle $762,500$762,500 LD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
		Dach, Kirby $3,362,500$3,362,500 C, RW RFA - 3
		Harris, Jordan $1,400,000$1,400,000 LD/RD RFA - 2
		Mesar, Filip $918,333$918,333 RW, C RFA - 3
		Slafkovsky, Juraj $950,000$950,000 ($3,500,000$4M) RW, LW RFA - 2
		Barron, Justin $925,000$925,000 ($275,000$275K) RD RFA - 1
		Beck, Owen $885,000$885,000 ($80,000$80K) C RFA - 3
		Guhle, Kaiden $863,333$863,333 ($420,000$420K) LD/RD RFA - 2
		Xhekaj, Arber $828,333$828,333 LD/RD RFA - 1

Mar. 30, 2023 at 10:24 a.m.

dopplsan

Nah.

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 4,542

Likes: 4,483

I still don't get the incentive for MTL to do any of this, when they know he's going to be coming to Quebec in a year.

Even with PLD, it's not like MTL is going to be notably better than they were this year; so, why waste assets just to get the guy a year sooner, unless they *really* want that 8th year in his contract.

Ross_Johnston, sensonfire, drambui and 1 other person liked this.

Mar. 30, 2023 at 10:28 a.m.

drambui

Joined: Feb. 2022

Posts: 3,842

Likes: 2,515

i dont think an offesheet will happen, no one benefits from it. and of it were to happen, im also not worried that any major player would be willing to sign in winnipeg, and thats a bit sad for the city.

sensonfire, Ross_Johnston, Fox_Czar_Cup and 1 other person liked this.

Mar. 30, 2023 at 10:29 a.m.

Onlyfairtrades1

Joined: Feb. 2023

Posts: 3,496

Likes: 1,461

Hab fans never learn, even after Carolina's GM embarrassed them with retribution for the Aho offersheet. They also don't understand that Jeff Gorton, the guy now in charge, does not believe in offer sheets, so they will not offer sheet PLD, they will simply wait a season if they have to and then sign him. Gorton has a lot of patience and isn't going to put a target on the back of his RFA's just to try to get PLD a year earlier.

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Mar. 30, 2023 at 10:30 a.m.

Ross_Johnston

No longer a Virgin

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 6,042

Likes: 2,608

Quoting: Onlyfairtrades1

MTL was not embarrassed by the offer sheet for Kotkaniemi. They actually did very well.

Where they got embarrassed was panicking and overpaying drastically for Dvorak. That was the mistake.

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Mar. 30, 2023 at 10:31 a.m.

TheDuminator

HabsFan

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 5,448

Likes: 933

If MTL OS PLD.. Winnipeg would match @ 4,2M$ and trade him for a contender and get a 1st, A-Prospect and middle-six player.
And the contender team would get a TOP 2C at a cheap cost for one year... and maybe convince him to stay like Avs, TB or even TML

Mar. 30, 2023 at 10:32 a.m.

MisstheWhalers

Joined: Jan. 2019

Posts: 23,784

Likes: 12,443

An offersheet from Montreal isn't likely, GMs aren't looking to screw over one of their counterparts and really whats the point of offersheeting a guy with one year left before free agency, just doesn't make sense.

No one is signing an offersheet in Winnipeg nor would Chevy do that anyway.

Only 90 more days of Dubois trades/scenarios... 🙄

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Mar. 30, 2023 at 10:32 a.m.

sensonfire

Thread Starter

sensonfire

Joined: Feb. 2021

Posts: 11,952

Likes: 4,485

Quoting: DomCholette

If MTL OS PLD.. Winnipeg would match 4,2M$ and trade him for a contender and get a 1st, A-Prospect and middle-six player.
And the contender team would get a TOP 2C at a cheap cost for one year... and maybe convince him to stay like Avs, TB or even TML

My understanding is that players that had their offersheet matched can not be traded for 1 year.

Lenny7, TheDuminator, Taz and 2 others liked this.

Mar. 30, 2023 at 10:34 a.m.

Jetman

Jetsfan

Joined: Sep. 2017

Posts: 8,012

Likes: 2,595

Quoting: DomCholette

you cant match and trade is why MTL fans think its funny. What could happen is a trade before July 4th to a team that would love a cheap rental in case MTL OS him

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Mar. 30, 2023 at 10:34 a.m.

Onlyfairtrades1

Joined: Feb. 2023

Posts: 3,496

Likes: 1,461

Quoting: stephane_robidas

MTL was not embarrassed by the offer sheet for Kotkaniemi. They actually did very well.

Where they got embarrassed was panicking and overpaying drastically for Dvorak. That was the mistake.

Keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep at night, and go ahead and try more offer sheets and see how they work out. The poster here is spot on, Montreal will have plenty of RFA's of their own to worry about and the thought no one wants to play for the Jets is nonsense. It's all about GREEN for many players.

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Mar. 30, 2023 at 10:34 a.m.

#10

Lenny7

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 13,291

Likes: 11,051

Quoting: sensonfire

My understanding is that players that had their offersheet matched can not be traded for 1 year.

This is accurate.

sensonfire liked this.

Mar. 30, 2023 at 10:35 a.m.

#11

Greysuits

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 2,173

Likes: 1,069

PLD wouldn't sign an offer sheet from MTL because Winnipeg would just match it, like the hurricanes did with Aho. Also why would MTL do this when they can just sign him in a year without giving up any assets.

sensonfire liked this.

Mar. 30, 2023 at 10:35 a.m.

#12

JeffGorton

Jeff Gorton

Joined: Oct. 2020

Posts: 2,240

Likes: 531

Caufield is the only one id care about and even then, theyd have to offer 10+ million for the Habs to not match and thats 4 1st rounders.

Try to be petty like the Hurricanes, look how great that worked out for them. Theyve got an overpayed 3C and another 7 years

sensonfire liked this.

Mar. 30, 2023 at 10:37 a.m.

#13

TheDuminator

HabsFan

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 5,448

Likes: 933

Quoting: Jetman

you cant match and trade is why MTL fans think its funny. What could happen is a trade before July 4th to a team that would love a cheap rental in case MTL OS him

you are right... sorry my bad.

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Mar. 30, 2023 at 10:45 a.m.

#14

Lenny7

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 13,291

Likes: 11,051

Quoting: Jetman

you cant match and trade is why MTL fans think its funny. What could happen is a trade before July 4th to a team that would love a cheap rental in case MTL OS him

Just beat them to the punch and O/S Caufield.

sensonfire liked this.

Mar. 30, 2023 at 10:48 a.m.

#15

LaCurveASlaf

Joined: Jul. 2022

Posts: 34

Likes: 20

Jets fans have to start to accept PLD is gone. MTL will play the wait game and get their man in a year while Jets can hope to get some sort of return at the deadline from a team willing to pay for 6 months of him knowing he's coming home in the summer of 2024.

The MTL offer including the FLA 2023 1st helps Jets rebuild quicker and get a good prospect in a quality draft instead of getting a late 1st round pick from a contender in 2024.

Just saying

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Mar. 30, 2023 at 10:56 a.m.

#16

Windjammer

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 16,090

Likes: 7,174

You guys realize that the player has to sign an offer sheet right? Montreal can't just send it and say that's done.

What incentive does PLD have to sign a $4.2 mil offer sheet when he'd likely get close to double that in arbitration and be in the same position?

If you're just doing the offer sheet for fun, why not go full silly and have PLD sign an offer sheet for $0. That's no more unrealistic than $4.2 mil.

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Mar. 30, 2023 at 11:04 a.m.

#17

Ross_Johnston

No longer a Virgin

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 6,042

Likes: 2,608

Imagine turning Laine and Roslovic into a third-round pick

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Mar. 30, 2023 at 11:06 a.m.

#18

MisstheWhalers

Joined: Jan. 2019

Posts: 23,784

Likes: 12,443

Quoting: Windjammer

Also how many times is Dubois going to leave money on the table, took way less to get out of Columbus then a cheap one year deal to get moved from Winnipeg, is he really going to do that a third time, maybe but he'd be crazy to.

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Mar. 30, 2023 at 11:23 a.m.

#19

Windjammer

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 16,090

Likes: 7,174

Quoting: MisstheWhalers

I could see maybe if it made even a little sense. In the silly lowball offersheet scenario, PLD signs a $4.2 mil offer sheet (or any amount up to the salary he would get at arbitration) and the Jets match because he's got more value playing for a year than a low pick they get as compensation. All he's accomplished is playing one more year in Winnipeg at 50% of the salary he should be getting.

When he could just go to arbitration and probably be awarded between $7 and $8 mil or more and have one more year to play in Winnipeg at a higher salary and gives Winnipeg the opportunity to trade him beforehand to where he wants to go.

There just no logic to the OS scenario as it only favors the team and does nothing for the player.

As you said, NHL GM's are an old boys club, they aren't actively going out to try and piss their counterparts off with lame brained schemes that have no hope of success. They'd find themselves on the outs with a lot of the GM fraternity fairly quickly.

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Mar. 30, 2023 at 11:31 a.m.

#20

BadaBing

Go Habs Go

Joined: Oct. 2021

Posts: 1,991

Likes: 468

What most people don`t realize is that by adding PLD to their lineup with an OS, it gives the HABS 2 solid lines. They would be a .500 team or better. Their D core will have NHL experience under their belt. That said the pick would be probably 13-16. It will definitely not be a TOP 5

Mar. 30, 2023 at 11:36 a.m.

#21

Leafsfan98

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 10,191

Likes: 3,092

This post has many problems:
1. Dubois isn't signing an offer sheet at 4.2 million dollars even for 1 year... This is his window to make the most money possible and he would be advised to take it (not discussing if he earned it, just if he should take that boatload of cash).
2. MTL should be done offer sheeting players after they dropped the ball with Aho. If MTL offer sheets Dubois, this proves that they are a poverty franchise with no redemption
3. Why would WPJ offersheet someone in response? if Dubois leaves, they should go into full rebuild mode and trade for assets to make a run in the future
4. Neither franchise's fans will get what they want... MTL only wants to give up Anderson and 1 1st, WPJ want the farm system... I would use a combination of the Timo Meier trade and Bo Horvat trade as comparables so 2 1st, A prospect (Beck or something) and a young and good roster player (Not Josh Anderson)

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Mar. 30, 2023 at 11:40 a.m.

#22

Leafsfan98

Leafs going to Leafs

Joined: Dec. 2022

Posts: 10,191

Likes: 3,092

Quoting: BadaBing

MTL with PLD will be best case where OTT is rn and that's if they sign a big free agent and acquire a Chychrun type player at the TDL. That pick should be a top 10 pick.
Reasoning:
Goalie is subpar at best
Defence is inexperienced
East is stacked
Injury prone
No cap space

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Mar. 30, 2023 at 11:46 a.m.

#23

sensonfire

Thread Starter

sensonfire

Joined: Feb. 2021

Posts: 11,952

Likes: 4,485

Quoting: Leafsfan98

This post has many problems:

1. I specifically said the following:

"However, this would require PLD to take a pay cut of at least 1.8 million for one year.

So, the risk that PLD would sign an offersheet in this case is rather low."

2. There are some that think Montreal is not done with offer-sheets.

Some Habs ACGMs on Capfriendly recently have been about offersheeting PLD.

And Marc D'Amico wrote a whole article about it.

https://montrealhockeynow.com/2023/03/28/montreal-canadiens-possible-canadiens-negotiation-tactic-to-pry-pierre-luc-dubois-from-jets/

3. Because if Winnipeg does not respond, then it sets a bad precedent.

Any team could then poach their best players with an offersheet and be left unpunished.

It's why Carolina offersheeted Kotkaniemi.

4. Why would Montreal trade multiple assets for Dubois when they can sign him for free next year?

Also, players who had their offer-sheet matched can't be traded for 1 full year.

Mar. 30, 2023 at 11:50 a.m.

#24

BadaBing

Go Habs Go

Joined: Oct. 2021

Posts: 1,991

Likes: 468

Quoting: Leafsfan98

You obviously don`t have an understanding of the Montreal Canadiens Organization. There is no issue with Cap with the departure of Drouin and Dadonov
Goaltending is better than what the Leafs have
Their D will have NHL experience under their belt and will be more effective next season
a team with possible contention for playoff will compensate injuries with trades
HABS would be a .500 and like I previously said pick will be 13-16

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Mar. 30, 2023 at 11:52 a.m.

#25

Jfstompers

Pop Pop

Joined: Feb. 2018

Posts: 14,693

Likes: 8,307

Montreal doesn't do any of this. They want him in Winnipeg playing another season where he won't sign and then they'll just sign him. Last thing they want is to give Winnipeg more of a reason to trade him. There's no telling what could happen if he goes to Vegas or Florida or Colorado and just likes it there.

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