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Tampa Bay Lightning signed Andrei Vasilevskiy (8 Years / $9,500,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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Jul 29 at 10:41
#26
ComYog
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 616
Likes: 106
Good damn it now Murray week very more
Jul 29 at 10:43
#27
NY Rangers
Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 153
Likes: 31
You always need good goaltending, but these types of goalie contracts rarely workout in the 2nd half. The good thing here though is that Vasi is only 25. Most of the top goalies getting these deals were in their very late 20's when they got their contracts
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Jul 29 at 10:45
#28
rangersandislesfan
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 26,627
Likes: 2,751
Quoting: SpaghettiPasta
The term is so much though. And considering he has been on the a good team his entire career, we don't really know how good he is


The money is more of a problem than the term IMO. He's like 25 or something.
Jul 29 at 10:48
#29
The worst AGMs
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 1,573
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
The money is more of a problem than the term IMO. He's like 25 or something.


The term makes the AAV worse because it's until he is 34, and the last half could be really bad.
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Jul 29 at 10:49
#30
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 863
Likes: 317
Quoting: Jamiepo
Took a look through some agm’s some leafs fan had him at 10m x 8 years and got ripped for it. Other than that everyone seems to have him at 8m or less. Even on an 8 year term.

Like I already posted earlier in an agm. It’s not horrible because it is an 8 year deal. But it certainly isn’t great either. I still think a 7-8m x 5 years would be a much better signing.


I agree, yeah
Jul 29 at 10:50
#31
Below Market Value
Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 1,212
Likes: 1,035
Quoting: Hockeyplayer1
Vasy is a very good goalie, but his overall numbers behind one of the best teams in the league aren’t that impressive.
He is still VERY young in terms of goalies so I think he will still become more consistent and the deal will be good in the second half. Just questioning if a 3 year bridge would have been a better option.


For the team it would have been, but he just came off of a 3-year bridge deal, and with how volatile goalie performance can be plus his recent Vezina win, he likely wanted to cash in right away.
Jul 29 at 11:04
#32
Quebec GM v4
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 9,205
Likes: 2,174
Pretty fair deal for both sides. That's about the price you have to pay for a top-caliber goaltender that is about to hit UFA. It may have been a little too long on AAV and term, but you'd rather do that than lose your young stud goaltender.
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Jul 29 at 11:04
#33
Joined: Jun 2019
Posts: 31
Likes: 12
Quoting: Bf3351
Way too much money for a team that is trying to contend. I would have thought around 7M. He might be worth it. God knows he's better than overrated Carey Price @ 10.5M. Just think it's too much all things considered.



Who are you to say hes overated when pro players say Carey price is the best goalie in the NHL ?
Jul 29 at 11:05
#34
rangersandislesfan
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 26,627
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Quoting: SpaghettiPasta
The term makes the AAV worse because it's until he is 34, and the last half could be really bad.


True but goalies are often really good late into their careers.
Jul 29 at 11:14
#35
Discord COL's GM
Joined: Mar 2018
Posts: 6,064
Likes: 1,545
Quoting: rangersandislesfan
Why so many no votes? He's one of the best goalies in the league.



With Vasi Stats
vasilan94

vasilan94

Without Vasi Stats on ice

vasilan94

vasilan94

Vasi's (With) PK Stats

vasilan94

vasilan94

Vasi's (without) PK

vasilan94

vasilan94


I think with these stats, and his Advanced Stats being 0.98 GSAA.
Jul 29 at 11:14
#36
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 1,328
Likes: 545
Quoting: Random2152
Ultimately he is young so it will be alright, but is Vasy really 50% better than Gibson (who should have won the Vezina)?


He's much younger than Bob and Price and he'll have a lower cap hit. This deal is another excellent bargain in TBL. He'd easily command $12M AAV as a UFA.
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Jul 29 at 11:16
#37
Club de Hockey 1909
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 1,391
Likes: 275
8.5M would have been better
Jul 29 at 11:18
#38
best poster
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 696
Likes: 413
a lot of money and term, but it'll be fine if he plays consistently.
Jul 29 at 11:32
#39
Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 169
Likes: 80
Why would you not pay this guy? Smh at these armchair GMs who think they could get him for cheap!
Jul 29 at 11:34
#40
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 5
Likes: 8
While 8 years, 9.5M AAV may sound like a lot now, just remember the new TV Deal in 2022 could easily cause an immediate rise in the upper limit of 10M+ per year. That, coupled with the new CBA coming up, could make 9.5M look like an extremely team friendly contract. I think GMs are wise to start considering locking up players long term now.
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Jul 29 at 11:37
#41
King In The North
Joined: Sep 2018
Posts: 393
Likes: 209
Can't wait for Whit to say "Dude got PAAAAAID" on the pod
Jul 29 at 11:47
#42
HonestHockeyNYI
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 28
Likes: 24
I just gotta wonder...did Tampa’s GM hit their head on something before signing this?
Jul 29 at 11:52
#43
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 85
Likes: 61
Edited Jul 31 at 8:22
What I don't like about this signing is that I don't think any goalie is worth this big of a chunk of your cap. The problem is that it's really hard to differentiate between a great goalie, and a great team when a goalie wins awards and has great numbers, and in general, the difference between a better than average goalie and a great goalie over a long term is relatively small, so committing that much additional money to them just doesn't make a lot of sense.

The goalie market for top tier goalies is very split. Price and Bob have gotten big money UFA deals, but RFAs, even after a great season haven't been able to push this type of AAV. Hellebuyck and Gibson signed last year for a much more reasonable AAV, and Gibson is arguably the most valuable goalie in the NHL.

So compared to the UFA signings, this looks good, compared to RFA deals, it looks terrible. This would be a little different if Tampa was against a wall to either let him go to arbitration or sign him, but there is very little to suggest they needed to do this right now. I feel like they jumped the gun, but didn't get a cheaper deal in doing so. There doesn't seem to have been much risk of pushing this deal higher had they at least given themselves a little time, so not sure why this ends up getting done right now.

It will be interesting to see how Tampa handles next seasons cap crunch (or this seasons for that matter). They can sign Point today, but aren't well equipped to deal with his contract if he pushes it toward the opening day of the season, and assuming Point comes in at $9.5M as well, Tampa will have about $77M committed next year to 14 players. That could be pretty tight, although they do have quite a number of secondary players whose contracts aren't awful, and could be moved if necessary.

Either way, this is the first big signing Tampa has done for one it's home grown superstars that doesn't look like a they took any sort of home town discount.
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Jul 29 at 11:54
#44
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 541
Likes: 101
This is a great contract... Really leveraged the Tampa tax. He probably could have had 11 after the Bobrovsky and Price signing. Add to this that they got 8 years which will make 32 at the end of the contract
Jul 29 at 11:55
#45
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 147
Likes: 18
Quoting: Zwui21

2) The Lightning cap situation: Tampa is now definitely in a pickle. But having Vas contract figured out gives the Lightning Front Office a better view for the projections and how to move in order to make it all fit under the cap.
But I sure as hell think that a move is in the making. Before next offseason ends, one of Palat or TyJo will be packing IMO


Only Alex Killorn has M-NTC, all other 3M+ players have NTC or NMC. IMO Killorn is now starting his last year in Tampa... And I won't be surprised if Point will be traded too... He cannot have a clause in his contract (he's under 27) and Cirelli has already showed a huge potential (39 points this year and he's still 22). Or what do you think? Somebody MUST go, but who?
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Jul 29 at 12:00
#46
exo2769
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 4,549
Likes: 985
Edited Jul 29 at 12:27
Quoting: rangersandislesfan
Why so many no votes? He's one of the best goalies in the league.


In all honesty, it's because he also has a record breaking team in front of him too. Vasileskiy is a good goalie and the No's aren't because people think he's bad at being a goalie. It's just hard to give this kind of money/term to a goalie that's only seen "good" times and HIGH quality playing in front of him. "Good" times is parenthesis because the playoffs have been tough, but tough for him too. Again, nothing saying he's a bad goalie.

***EDIT*** just did a quick search, BUT I 110% welcome a double check. The most expensive goalie...in terms of cap %...was Corey Crawford coming off a fresh contract in 2014/2015. $6M cap hit with a $69M cap ceiling. That's 8.7% of a teams cap spend on the goalie position. The cap will need to exceed $109M in order to NOT be a record breaking amount by a winning goalie. Maybe teams shouldn't pay that much for a goalie??? I know the goalie position is "vital", but how often do new guys win the cup??? Actually, ALL THE TIME! Matt Murray, Binnington, Antti Niemi...and honestly when Tukka, Quick (1st time), AND Crow (the 1st time) won their cups....they were new goalies then with MUCH smaller cap hits then too! 6 out of the last 9 cup winning goaltenders had VERY low cap hits. The only (3) being Holtby, Crow 2nd time, and Quick 2nd time.
OldNYIfan liked this.
Jul 29 at 12:18
#47
OldNYIfan
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 6,011
Likes: 2,415
Quoting: KubaH
Only Alex Killorn has M-NTC, all other 3M+ players have NTC or NMC. IMO Killorn is now starting his last year in Tampa... And I won't be surprised if Point will be traded too... He cannot have a clause in his contract (he's under 27) and Cirelli has already showed a huge potential (39 points this year and he's still 22). Or what do you think? Somebody MUST go, but who?


CapFriendly says the only guy who doesn't have an absolute NTC this year or next is Ondrej Palat. Am I missing something?
Jul 29 at 12:18
#48
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 6,100
Likes: 1,167
Murray and Holtby over there like.....I'm next ****es!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jul 29 at 12:22
#49
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 147
Likes: 18
Quoting: OldNYIfan
CapFriendly says the only guy who doesn't have an absolute NTC this year or next is Ondrej Palat. Am I missing something?


I said it right. Killorn has his NTC until the end of the 19/20 season, then he has M-NTC. Palat's M-NTC is starting year later.
Look at their contracts here on Capfriendly
Jul 29 at 12:25
#50
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 1,394
Likes: 423
Edited Jul 29 at 12:33
Quoting: AwesomeMatthews
Worth every penny? how much cap will they have after this


Quoting: Random2152
Ultimately he is young so it will be alright, but is Vasy really 50% better than Gibson (who should have won the Vezina)?


Quoting: Hockeylover360
Ok, I don't think this contract will work for Tampa's cap problems at all. Long term goalie contracts like this may back fire in the later half.


Quoting: ProfessorFuzzymuffins
This is a good signing in a vacuum, but I just wonder how they're going to shed the necessary salary with all the No Trade/No Move clauses that they've handed out.


Quoting: ConnorMcHellebucyk
neat I like the 8 years. I thought he would go for 5. As is the going rate. The cap hit is very reasonable and this could look like a bargain in 5 or 6 years


There's one major problem with all these massive goalie contracts ...

Goaltender performance is ASTRONOMICALLY less predictable than player performance.

Imagine if McDavid stayed 100% healthy next year ... played a full 82 games ... and had a total of 30 points on the season.

That's goaltenders in a nutshell ... they can all go from a Vezina quality season to an average season (or worse) without warning.

Price has gone back and fourth like 4 times in his career (and he's the best goalie of the past decade).
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