Edited Jul 31, 2019 at 8:22
What I don't like about this signing is that I don't think any goalie is worth this big of a chunk of your cap. The problem is that it's really hard to differentiate between a great goalie, and a great team when a goalie wins awards and has great numbers, and in general, the difference between a better than average goalie and a great goalie over a long term is relatively small, so committing that much additional money to them just doesn't make a lot of sense.
The goalie market for top tier goalies is very split. Price and Bob have gotten big money UFA deals, but RFAs, even after a great season haven't been able to push this type of AAV. Hellebuyck and Gibson signed last year for a much more reasonable AAV, and Gibson is arguably the most valuable goalie in the NHL.
So compared to the UFA signings, this looks good, compared to RFA deals, it looks terrible. This would be a little different if Tampa was against a wall to either let him go to arbitration or sign him, but there is very little to suggest they needed to do this right now. I feel like they jumped the gun, but didn't get a cheaper deal in doing so. There doesn't seem to have been much risk of pushing this deal higher had they at least given themselves a little time, so not sure why this ends up getting done right now.
It will be interesting to see how Tampa handles next seasons cap crunch (or this seasons for that matter). They can sign Point today, but aren't well equipped to deal with his contract if he pushes it toward the opening day of the season, and assuming Point comes in at $9.5M as well, Tampa will have about $77M committed next year to 14 players. That could be pretty tight, although they do have quite a number of secondary players whose contracts aren't awful, and could be moved if necessary.
Either way, this is the first big signing Tampa has done for one it's home grown superstars that doesn't look like a they took any sort of home town discount.