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Los Angeles Kings signed Cal Petersen (3 Years / $5,000,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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Sep 22 at 4:52
#26
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 6,360
Likes: 3,827
Quoting: drewjenkins
.



Unfortunately my main man Calley-P ended up in the wrong category ....



GOOD VALUE SIGNINGS:

030 games | 0.928 SV% | 2.01 GAA | $3,000,000 x 2 year deal | 25 years old | Alex Nedeljkovic
038 games | 0.929 SV% | 2.09 GAA | $3,500,000 x 3 year deal | 26 years old | Chris Driedger
050 games | 0.928 SV% | 2.30 GAA | $1,600,000 x 2 year deal | 27 years old | Jack Campbell
275 games | 0.912 SV% | 2.59 GAA | $3,800,000 x 3 year deal | 28 years old | Pete Mrazek
155 games | 0.920 SV% | 2.50 GAA | $5,000,000 x 4 year deal | 26 years old | Juuse Saros
050 games | 0.910 SV% | 2.79 GAA | $2,200,000 x 2 year deal | 25 years old | Aidan Hill


POOR VALUE SIGNINGS:

214 games | 0.920 SV% | 2.34 GAA | $5,900,000 x 6 year deal | 28 years old | Philip Grubauer
045 games | 0.908 SV% | 2.61 GAA | $2,000,000 x 1 year deal | 24 years old | Ilya Samsonov
117 games | 0.912 SV% | 2.78 GAA | $5,000,000 x 4 year deal | 27 years old | Linus Ullmark
082 games | 0.908 SV% | 2.83 GAA | $2,300,000 x 2 year deal | 27 years old | Laur Brossoit
022 games | 0.918 SV% | 2.17 GAA | $4,000,000 x 3 year deal | 26 years old | Ilya Sorokin
101 games | 0.905 SV% | 2.88 GAA | $3,900,000 x 3 year deal | 23 years old | Carter Hart


DIVORCE SETTLEMENTS:

061 games | 0.908 SV% | 2.94 GAA | $5,000,000 x 5 year deal | 25 years old | Thatcher Demko
054 games | 0.916 SV% | 2.79 GAA | $5,000,000 x 3 year deal | 26 years old | Calvin Petersen
098 games | 0.916 SV% | 2.42 GAA | $6,000,000 x 6 year deal | 27 years old | Jordy Binington
047 games | 0.921 SV% | 2.59 GAA | $5,700,000 x 4 year deal | 25 years old | Igor Shesterkin
061 games | 0.920 SV% | 2.54 GAA | $5,400,000 x 5 year deal | 27 years old | Elvis Merzlikins



**Career stats are from the signing date


.


Now do GSAx
Sep 22 at 4:53
#27
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 887
Likes: 535
Quoting: ColonelX
People had no problem throwing 9 million a year to Kaprizov but complain that Petersen's being unproven at the NHL level?


Small sample sizes for goalies are a lot more problematic than small sample sizes for players.

Extreme Example:

- A minor league goalie could play one game and look like Dominik Hasek.
- A minor league player is not physically capable of looking like McDavid.

Players skill-levels are more clearly visible and repeatable than goalie skills.

They same thing applies to tennis and golf:

- I could beat Tiger Woods in one round of golf if I played my best (68) and he played is absolute worst.
- I would get destroyed by Roger Federer 1,000 times in row (regardless of how good or bad we played).

Different skill sets = Different performance variance.
Trickster and Brian2016 liked this.
Sep 22 at 5:03
#28
Go Habs Go
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 7,807
Likes: 1,914
Quoting: Roysboy72
Did you have to literally half of the people in this thread to say that?


... and for something seemingly arbitrary?
justaBoss liked this.
Sep 22 at 5:08
#29
v5 CBJ GM
Joined: Oct 2020
Posts: 6,421
Likes: 6,260
Good deal, Petersen is a solid starter and should help LA contend
OldNYIfan liked this.
Sep 22 at 6:08
#30
Go Sens
Joined: Oct 2020
Posts: 2,325
Likes: 701
Terrible overpayment imo.
PrisonBull liked this.
Sep 22 at 7:11
#31
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 7,133
Likes: 2,556
Quoting: drewjenkins
.



Unfortunately my main man Calley-P ended up in the wrong category ....



GOOD VALUE SIGNINGS:

030 games | 0.928 SV% | 2.01 GAA | $3,000,000 x 2 year deal | 25 years old | Alex Nedeljkovic
038 games | 0.929 SV% | 2.09 GAA | $3,500,000 x 3 year deal | 26 years old | Chris Driedger
050 games | 0.928 SV% | 2.30 GAA | $1,600,000 x 2 year deal | 27 years old | Jack Campbell
275 games | 0.912 SV% | 2.59 GAA | $3,800,000 x 3 year deal | 28 years old | Pete Mrazek
155 games | 0.920 SV% | 2.50 GAA | $5,000,000 x 4 year deal | 26 years old | Juuse Saros
050 games | 0.910 SV% | 2.79 GAA | $2,200,000 x 2 year deal | 25 years old | Aidan Hill


POOR VALUE SIGNINGS:

214 games | 0.920 SV% | 2.34 GAA | $5,900,000 x 6 year deal | 28 years old | Philip Grubauer
045 games | 0.908 SV% | 2.61 GAA | $2,000,000 x 1 year deal | 24 years old | Ilya Samsonov
117 games | 0.912 SV% | 2.78 GAA | $5,000,000 x 4 year deal | 27 years old | Linus Ullmark
082 games | 0.908 SV% | 2.83 GAA | $2,300,000 x 2 year deal | 27 years old | Laur Brossoit
022 games | 0.918 SV% | 2.17 GAA | $4,000,000 x 3 year deal | 26 years old | Ilya Sorokin
101 games | 0.905 SV% | 2.88 GAA | $3,900,000 x 3 year deal | 23 years old | Carter Hart


DIVORCE SETTLEMENTS:

061 games | 0.908 SV% | 2.94 GAA | $5,000,000 x 5 year deal | 25 years old | Thatcher Demko
054 games | 0.916 SV% | 2.79 GAA | $5,000,000 x 3 year deal | 26 years old | Calvin Petersen
098 games | 0.916 SV% | 2.42 GAA | $6,000,000 x 6 year deal | 27 years old | Jordy Binington
047 games | 0.921 SV% | 2.59 GAA | $5,700,000 x 4 year deal | 25 years old | Igor Shesterkin
061 games | 0.920 SV% | 2.54 GAA | $5,400,000 x 5 year deal | 27 years old | Elvis Merzlikins



**Career stats are from the signing date


.


I don't understand why Saaros, Grubauer, and Merzilkins are in three different categories when they're all 0.920 sv% on the dot and signed for 5 mil, 5 mil, and 5.9 mil
Sep 22 at 8:34
#32
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 12,748
Likes: 5,167
$5m + NTC
Good agent, I guess
Sep 22 at 9:33
#33
Always in Pain
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 22,056
Likes: 13,938
Bit too much for a goalie still quite unproven.
Sep 22 at 11:51
#34
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 887
Likes: 535
Quoting: BCAPP
I don't understand why Saaros, Grubauer, and Merzilkins are in three different categories when they're all 0.920 sv% on the dot and signed for 5 mil, 5 mil, and 5.9 mil


Saaros signed for $900,000 less than Grubauer, for 2 years less than Grubauer, and is 2 years younger than Grubauer.

So Saaros expires around 30 while Grubauer expires around 34. It's not bad but it's enough to differentiate the two.

Merzlikins has played 61 NHL games. That's a lot of money and term for a very small sample size.

His whole group is comparable. They all look promising, but somehow got long and expensive contracts with short resumes.
Sep 23 at 2:53
#35
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 7,133
Likes: 2,556
Quoting: drewjenkins
Saaros signed for $900,000 less than Grubauer, for 2 years less than Grubauer, and is 2 years younger than Grubauer.

So Saaros expires around 30 while Grubauer expires around 34. It's not bad but it's enough to differentiate the two.

Merzlikins has played 61 NHL games. That's a lot of money and term for a very small sample size.

His whole group is comparable. They all look promising, but somehow got long and expensive contracts with short resumes.


Saaros would likely argue he's happy his contract is shorter than grubauer as it means he gets anothrr contract in his 20s
Sep 23 at 3:59
#36
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 3,736
Likes: 2,103
I can't stand short term, big money contracts in most cases, but I make an exception when Goalies are involved. We've seen so many long term deals go bad after 4-5 years (some much sooner) that this deal makes tons of sense for the Kings. Solid B+ contract.
Sep 23 at 4:03
#37
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 3,736
Likes: 2,103
Quoting: drewjenkins
Small sample sizes for goalies are a lot more problematic than small sample sizes for players.

Extreme Example:

- A minor league goalie could play one game and look like Dominik Hasek.
- A minor league player is not physically capable of looking like McDavid.

Players skill-levels are more clearly visible and repeatable than goalie skills.

They same thing applies to tennis and golf:

- I could beat Tiger Woods in one round of golf if I played my best (68) and he played is absolute worst.
- I would get destroyed by Roger Federer 1,000 times in row (regardless of how good or bad we played).

Different skill sets = Different performance variance.


I agree with everything you said except about bearing Tiger when you play the round of your life and he plays terrible. Tiger, at least in his prime, had a competitive edge to the point where he would intimidate you and grind out a W. Remember the 2008 US Open against Rocco? But, I see your point as it relates to hockey.
drewjenkins liked this.
Sep 23 at 9:45
#38
Joined: Jul 2021
Posts: 123
Likes: 40
Wow! I didn't realize he was that good. At least they didn't give him a long term.
Sep 24 at 7:31
#39
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 887
Likes: 535
Edited Sep 24 at 7:36
Quoting: Brian2016
I agree with everything you said except about bearing Tiger when you play the round of your life and he plays terrible. Tiger, at least in his prime, had a competitive edge to the point where he would intimidate you and grind out a W. Remember the 2008 US Open against Rocco? But, I see your point as it relates to hockey.


Yeah I could never beat prime Tiger in 4 day tournament (or anyone else on the PGA tour).
But if it's just one round it's definitely possible (extremely unlikely though).
Maybe once in 10,000 tries when I was close to scratch.
Prime Tiger was grinding out wins with 1-2 bad rounds.
Brian2016 liked this.
Sep 24 at 7:51
#40
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 887
Likes: 535
Quoting: BCAPP
Saaros would likely argue he's happy his contract is shorter than grubauer as it means he gets anothrr contract in his 20s


He turned 26 in April so he'll be 30 when he becomes a UFA.

26 seems to be the exact age when contract negotiations shift.

Under 26 = Teams want more term (and have to pay more for it).
Over 26 = Players want more term (and have to sacrifice for it).
Age 26 = Debatable

I doubt he would have rejected another 4 years (30-34) at $5,000,000.

But you might be right too.
BCAPP and OldNYIfan liked this.
Sep 24 at 9:13
#41
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 7,133
Likes: 2,556
Quoting: drewjenkins
He turned 26 in April so he'll be 30 when he becomes a UFA.

26 seems to be the exact age when contract negotiations shift.

Under 26 = Teams want more term (and have to pay more for it).
Over 26 = Players want more term (and have to sacrifice for it).
Age 26 = Debatable

I doubt he would have rejected another 4 years (30-34) at $5,000,000.

But you might be right too.


I think this summer specifically there has been a decent chunk of players who want to become a free agent in about 3-4 years hoping the cap is going back up, if they can be young enough

There was a week in mid August or so where like 5 rfas at about 24-26 year of age all took less than I expected to get 3-4 year terms to become a Ufa in their 20s (or as you point out I misread a bit and right at 30 for the goalie above).

It was Reinhart, Vrana and I actually can't remember the other 2-3
drewjenkins liked this.
Sep 27 at 5:36
#42
Joined: Jun 2019
Posts: 6
Likes: 2
as mayority i thing its too much. As Kings fan, hope he will prove, that he is worth that amount of money. But i have feeling, that Kings cant do same thing like for example Boston or Colorado, to convice players sighn for little bit less money to help team be more competitive.
Oct 1 at 7:52
#43
Canucks...
Joined: Sep 2021
Posts: 884
Likes: 131
I get that he's a UFA at the end of his current contract, but I can't help but feel maybe Rob Blake panicked a little bit on this one. This guy still has a lot to prove and if he doesn't pan out, you are probably better off letting him walk, let alone signing another league-minimum extension as oppose to this
 
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