To MTL and WPG Fans

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: arafay

Team: 2023-24 Winnipeg Jets

Initial Creation Date: May 31, 2023

Published: May 31, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

For all who need to hear this, MTL and Winnipeg fans alike.

MTL fans:
1. your leverage is only if Dubois is ONLY willing to sign long term in MTL. There is no single statement anywhere that suggests this is the case. Dubois has called much of the rumours “fake news” when asked about them. And his agent said what he said in a speculative manner when asked directly about mtl. MTL has no leverage if he is willing to sign elsewhere.

Now, I’m going to assume that he’s only willing to sign in MTL for the sake of argument.

MTL Fans: Your leverage starts once you beat the other 30 teams in the league. Regardless of if he’s willing to sign long term or not, teams will be willing to pay a rental price for dubois. That means a 1st, decent roster player, and a high end prospect. And you, as MTL, have to beat that offer for the jets to consider your offer. Your leverage in this case comes in beyond that. If Dubois is only going to sign in MTL, you only have to pay a rental price for him, not a long term dubois you would be getting.

WPG Fans: Unless you are adding something significant in addition, MTL isn’t moving 5 oa, just stop, it’s embarrassing. If Dubois was coming with a long term extension and he was also willing to sign elsewhere, you may have a case for 5 oa. But even then, I think MTL moves on for the price and keeps what they have.

My thoughts: MTL definitely has leverage, but not nearly as much as their fans think. With the above being true (and it unarguably is), I think Dubois has a short list of teams he’s willing to sign an extension with. MTL is definitely on that list. But I also think a team like LA or NYR might be as well. It will be a small list because I think Dubois wants to be in a big market and also wants to go to a winning team, but the list is there. So yes, you have some leverage being one of the only teams he’s willing to sign long term with, but you aren’t the only one in my opinion. Is Dach reasonable? I think it depends on what MTL thinks of him and Dubois. If they think Dach will never get to the point dubois is already at (which is my opinion), I think they would be open to including him in a deal. Otherwise, I think the jets need to look at a different guy like Barron. This is what I think happens. Just my opinion based on the above. (Similar to the Trouba trade)

Trades

WPG

Dach, Kirby
2023 1st round pick (FLA)

MTL

Dubois, Pierre-Luc [RFA Rights]

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2023
2024
2025

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
16	$83,500,000	$66,420,358	$0	$1,150,000	$17,079,642

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Connor, Kyle $7,142,857$7,142,857 LW UFA - 3	Scheifele, Mark $6,125,000$6,125,000 C NMC UFA - 1	Wheeler, Blake $800,000$800,000 ($300,000$300K) RW NTC UFA - 1
Niederreiter, Nino $4,000,000$4,000,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Dach, Kirby $3,362,500$3,362,500 C, RW RFA - 3	Ehlers, Nikolaj $6,000,000$6,000,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 2
Gustafsson, David $775,000$775,000 LW, C RFA - 1	Lowry, Adam $3,250,000$3,250,000 C M-NTC UFA - 3	Appleton, Mason $2,166,667$2,166,667 RW UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Morrissey, Joshua $6,250,000$6,250,000 LD NMC UFA - 5	Pionk, Neal $5,875,000$5,875,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 2	Hellebuyck, Connor $6,166,667$6,166,667 G NMC UFA - 1
Schmidt, Nate $5,950,000$5,950,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 2	DeMelo, Dylan $3,000,000$3,000,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 1
Dillon, Brenden $3,900,000$3,900,000 LD UFA - 1
Capobianco, Kyle $762,500$762,500 LD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
	Perfetti, Cole $894,167$894,167 ($850,000$850K) LW, C RFA - 1

May 31, 2023 at 5:31 p.m.

njlaforte

Joined: Jan. 2021

Posts: 989

Likes: 392

As a lifelong Habs fan... we accept!

May 31, 2023 at 5:34 p.m.

SKWPG

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 912

Likes: 291

WPG says... OH YES PLEASE!!!! Dach or Barron, but ideally Dach. And the FLA pick to go with it? YA BABY.

MTL fans will say no.

Caufield, Just_A_Guess, Campabee and 2 others liked this.

May 31, 2023 at 5:38 p.m.

Caufield

Reinbacher Josi 2.0

Joined: Sep. 2022

Posts: 4,141

Likes: 2,292

Of course this is made by a WPG fan. Idk what is so difficult to understand in that Dach's trade value is greater than PLDs trade value, let alone adding another first.

Burnout, Black61, Campabee and 3 others liked this.

May 31, 2023 at 5:40 p.m.

Jetman

Jetsfan

Joined: Sep. 2017

Posts: 7,985

Likes: 2,589

Quoting: Caufield

Of course this is made by a WPG fan. Idk what is so difficult to understand in that Dach's trade value is greater than PLDs trade value, let alone adding another first.

Both are similar age and Dach has done nothing to impressive. Dubois can take over a game, Dach has never shown that, he literally only got 38 points as his career high and MTL fans think he is the next Gretz

Put it this way, if Dubois is willing to sign long term in Winnipeg, I wouldnt do this trade as I personally think an extended Dubois is worth way more than 31/32 OA and Dach

SydBarrett, SKWPG, Windjammer and 1 other person liked this.

May 31, 2023 at 5:43 p.m.

habitantlecolon

Le patriote

Joined: Dec. 2018

Posts: 6,354

Likes: 1,410

Habs are not trading Dach. Dvorak and Kidney are those who are going to be offered and the first will be Florida pick or habs 2024 with a huge amount of protection. Others team knowing that he is a pure rental won't commit to pay a decent roster player for him therefore Habs leverage is the biggest obstacle for Winnipeg GM.

Caufield, Campabee, NewDG and 1 other person liked this.

May 31, 2023 at 5:45 p.m.

Caufield

Reinbacher Josi 2.0

Joined: Sep. 2022

Posts: 4,141

Likes: 2,292

Quoting: Jetman

Maybe, but right now, the public situation is that PLD is most likely only looking at MTL, decreasing the value a lot. Dach is worth more than he was traded for, which was 13th OA. He is probably worth 10th in this year's draft. Dach is also far from finishing his growth, and 38 points are in only 58 games, which is way different than 38 points in 82 games. There is absolutely no reason for Dach's potential to not be at 70 points. Dach's contract is good. There are a lot of legitimate reasons why Dach is a better trade asset than PLD

SKWPG, Campabee, LumberJacques and 2 others liked this.

May 31, 2023 at 5:45 p.m.

SydBarrett

Syd Barret

Joined: Sep. 2018

Posts: 964

Likes: 469

Wow a well explained, reasonable take. MTL fans will surely rip you apart tho as they believe all their players are god's gift to hockey. Even when they consistently show how mediocre they are lol

SKWPG, Windjammer and Howie liked this.

May 31, 2023 at 5:47 p.m.

habitantlecolon

Le patriote

Joined: Dec. 2018

Posts: 6,354

Likes: 1,410

Quoting: pensburgh571

Wow a well explained, reasonable take. MTL fans will surely rip you apart tho as they believe all their players are god's gift to hockey. Even when they consistently show how mediocre they are lol

we are not going to rip him, he has the right to claim an opinion but we won't move Dach in such move.

Caufield, Just_A_Guess, Campabee and 4 others liked this.

May 31, 2023 at 5:50 p.m.

Birtle34

Bandwagon fairweathe

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 7,613

Likes: 3,259

Dach is a poor man’s laine playing out of position, so somewhat ironic that he would be in the return, new gms first decent size move for Montreal, would be interesting to if he is in the return for Dubois. Will be telling how he feels about his longevity with Montreal. I’m just hoping this doesn’t drag out throughout the off-season. Massive extension with Winnipeg or massive blockbuster that Winnipeg somehow wins is my hope, but we will see.

SKWPG and Windjammer liked this.

May 31, 2023 at 5:52 p.m.

#10

SKWPG

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 912

Likes: 291

Quoting: habitantlecolon

we are not going to rip him, he has the right to claim an opinion but we won't move Dach in such move.

Wow, you aren't a very good troll. It's quite common to rip people apart for their thoughts out here. I had to block a guy named "juan...." who would attack every post I made, despite my points were mostly quite good and he was about as dumb as an empty bucket of chicken.

I thought this site was about posting your wants / ideas and go from there, but too many people think it's their official duty to tell people they are wrong.

You are failing at your troll duty.

May 31, 2023 at 5:55 p.m.

#11

Just_A_Guess

Joined: Apr. 2021

Posts: 4,903

Likes: 3,249

Dach is not available for a PLD trade. Neither is Beck, Barron, MTL 5OA, Josh Roy, Suzuki, CC or Slaf. Whether you like it or not MTL will offer what they offer and you can try your hand with another team while they know PLD won't sign with them (considering the basis of your argument). Since the basis of the argument is that he will only sign in MTL, his value currently sits at the '24 1st & 3rd we would be required to send for a 1x6.3 OS. The FLA 1st, a semi-developed prospect (Kidney), and roster player of a lesser calibre (Dvorak for example, you won't receive a one for one roster player swap) gives you something to work with now. Value wise, that likely needs one more upper-mid piece but that's about the max that would be offered or we go elsewhere. We do not need him, the storyline would just be fun. If you don't like the offer, like I said, try your luck elsewhere (unless you decide to match an OS in which case he walks to FA as a UFA and is free game for all as likely the 4th best C option on the market next year)

habitantlecolon, MontysPython and Xavier02 liked this.

May 31, 2023 at 5:56 p.m.

#12

Burnout

Joined: Jan. 2022

Posts: 1,668

Likes: 1,004

I don't know who needs to hear this other than the the OP, but MONTREAL. JUST. STARTED. A. REBUILD. Their interest in Dubois is only if they can get him cheaply in trade or through free agency.

If the choice is not trading for Dubois or trading Dach and a 1st, then its obviously not trading for Dubois.

habitantlecolon, Black61, MontysPython and 4 others liked this.

May 31, 2023 at 5:57 p.m.

#13

Black61

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 2,626

Likes: 1,673

Actual insider Elliote Friedman: I am 90+ percent confident PLD will sign lobg term in MTL

Delusional WPG fan: ya he barely even wants to play in MTL

MontysPython liked this.

May 31, 2023 at 5:58 p.m.

#14

Cory

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 1,145

Likes: 368

This pure rental stuff is funny. Dubois wants to win. Montreal is far from it and Arafay nailed it with his description. Hockey Writers came out and said that their are multiple teams that will be interested in Dubois. Carolina, NYR, Colorado, LA, Boston, and of course Montreal. If Kidney, Dvorak and a late first is all Montreal offers, then I am glad we can all shut the Dubois to Montreal fluff down because every one of those other teams will blow that offer away.

Windjammer, SydBarrett, arafay and 1 other person liked this.

May 31, 2023 at 6:00 p.m.

#15

Billy739

Joined: Dec. 2017

Posts: 6,590

Likes: 1,629

July 1st:
Any Team OS's PLD and WPG Matches
End of their return ability with PLD as CBA states he cant be traded for 365 days or July 1st 2024 at which point he'll be a UFA after his 7th seasons.

Our Leverage is our ability to screw you, plain and simple.
You Match , We Win
You Dont Match, We Win

May 31, 2023 at 6:01 p.m.

#16

Cory

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 1,145

Likes: 368

Quoting: Just_A_Guess

I hate that offer sheet option. I have to think if Montreal or any team did that just to screw over Wpg or any team in the same situation. The whole league would never talk to that team again.

That would be a very dirty play and I would think all of the owners would band together to get that GM and owner kicked out.

SydBarrett and SKWPG liked this.

May 31, 2023 at 6:05 p.m.

#17

Birtle34

Bandwagon fairweathe

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 7,613

Likes: 3,259

Quoting: Billy739

Lottery 24 pick thank you, along with jets lottery 24 pick not a bad haul

Windjammer, arafay and Ducky10 liked this.

May 31, 2023 at 6:09 p.m.

#18

jonh514

HuGo is a Boss GM

Joined: Dec. 2021

Posts: 6,961

Likes: 3,043

Your opinion that "Dach will never get to the point Dubois is already at" is not the opinion of most Habs fans, nor Habs management. We/They love him and feel he's going to be an amazing 1B/2A center. Plus he makes 3.4M for the next 3 years. PLD is gonna want 8.5M, especially with that Robber Barron "Brisson" as his agent.

I personally would not trade Dach 1-for-1. Let them keep him and we'll see what happens in UFA.

I WOULD trade the 1st and a prospect for him, like Kidney and Florida 1st... but yeah, we're not moving Dach or Barron.

habitantlecolon, Billy739, MontysPython and 2 others liked this.

May 31, 2023 at 6:10 p.m.

#19

habitantlecolon

Le patriote

Joined: Dec. 2018

Posts: 6,354

Likes: 1,410

Quoting: Cory

MTL might not be one Dubois away from a cup run, but with Dubois, Dach, Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovky and our d-corp, we would be on a greater route than a dowgrading Jets facing the wall.

May 31, 2023 at 6:13 p.m.

#20

Black61

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 2,626

Likes: 1,673

Quoting: Cory

You do inderstand the concept of consent right?

If PLD doesnt want to sign long term with any of those teams they cant force him to.

Thats the entire point of all this. Multiple reputable insiders have said that PLDs camp ONLY wants to sign long term in MTL something that he CAN do next offseason in free agency (which is something he explicitely said he is going to do at the jets locker cleanout)

Habs fans will gladly let another team trade for him this offseason for the 1 year. We actually prefer not paying anything and getting him for free in a year

habitantlecolon, MontysPython and Just_A_Guess liked this.

May 31, 2023 at 6:14 p.m.

#21

Billy739

Joined: Dec. 2017

Posts: 6,590

Likes: 1,629

Quoting: Birtle34

Lottery 24 pick thank you, along with jets lottery 24 pick not a bad haul

IF thats all it takes MTL would trade it
Issue is your GMs trying to play hardball up to the wire.
Its more likely you end up with the FLA pick this year and a top 3 protected pick next year
But WPG is trying to get a NHL ready player to replace Dubois now is the issue
Only player that makes sense to move today is Gurianov
Outside that its all players WPG dont want outside the ones MTL wont trade.

But come Draft day i think you'll see Chevy jump all over that FLA pick and a top 3 protected pick next year.
Or he's risks OS like Bergavin did and might lose that battle leading to his dismissal just a few months later.

arafay liked this.

May 31, 2023 at 6:15 p.m.

#22

Billy739

Joined: Dec. 2017

Posts: 6,590

Likes: 1,629

Quoting: jonh514

Caufield-Suzuki-Dach was our first legit top line in 20+ years and point per game players.
Dach's ability to break into the OZ even in traffic is what will lead to his success in the future.

habitantlecolon and jonh514 liked this.

May 31, 2023 at 6:16 p.m.

#23

MontysPython

Player Model Maker

Joined: Aug. 2022

Posts: 1,116

Likes: 508

"similar age" its 3 years. That's a lot in the NHL, especially for a rebuilding team. If you really think Dach is on the table, I feel bad for what happens. Off the table as it stands are Caufield, Suzuki, Hutson, Dach, Roy, Slaf, and probably Montembeault, Barron, RHP, Matheson, Guhle. You're acting like Dubois isn't going to be on the semi-open market in 2 years, when MTL will start coming out of the rebuild as midfield competitors. He's not staying on WPG and that's a widely known fact. It's not a question of "we want to trade him" it's a "he's not happy, and he has his eyes set on another place" That's your leverage gone. Sorry for blowing up the dms, but just look at what Horvat got as a rental playing at a much better pace. Resounding no from Hughes here.

habitantlecolon, Just_A_Guess and Xavier02 liked this.

May 31, 2023 at 6:20 p.m.

#24

MisstheWhalers

Joined: Jan. 2019

Posts: 23,666

Likes: 12,373

I don't think there's going to be too many teams with much interest in Duchois, really don't see LA or the Rangers having much interest either as both teams are pretty set at center and have their own cap issues.

Highly doubt there will be any kind of bidding war for PLD, it'll likely be something like the Florida 1st, Dvorak and a B-/B+ prospect.

jonh514, habitantlecolon, LumberJacques and 1 other person liked this.

May 31, 2023 at 6:26 p.m.

#25

Birtle34

Bandwagon fairweathe

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 7,613

Likes: 3,259

Quoting: MisstheWhalers

Could the jets not qualify then retain half and throw a 3 million Dubois on the open market?

arafay and Ducky10 liked this.

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