my mind says this is a good deal for detroit, but my heart tells me that paying almost 8mil for a 5'7" forward is a bad idea

Yzerman was patient, used his leverage and got the deal he wanted, signing Debrincat to a reasonable deal (even if the term is a little short). . I would be annoyed if I was a Sens fan. Kubalik is a UFA next year, plus a prospect, 1st and 4th. The Sens gave up a high 1st (7th overall) 2nd (39th overall) and 3rd to acquire him. This was a loss for Ottawa but Dorian's hands were tied as Debrincat would only sign in certain markets.

Guess that rather depends on if he becomes a 40 goal scorer again.

Is it a good trade for DeBrincat's value? Yes

Is it a good trade considering what Ottawa gave up in the 1st place? No

Kubalik was a non-qualified RFA last year (and was traded for a 5th in 2019).
Sebrango was demoted to the ECHL last year (after three years in the AHL).
Combined they're probably worth a 5th round pick at most (not a 2nd + 3rd).

Ottawa traded a 7th overall pick and are likely getting back a 15th-25th pick.
For a 7th overall, you'd have to trade two 15th overalls, or three 25th overalls.

Ottawa traded:

- Pick 007 (2022)
- Pick 039 (2022)
- Pick 075 (2024) [estimate]

Ottawa received:

- Pick 020 (2024) [estimate]
- Pick 105 (2024) [estimate]
- Pick 137 (2024) [estimate]

considering height in contract negotiations? what is this, 2003?

You’re out of line to say Kubalik is worth a 5th. Chicago didn’t want to ruin relationships and so didn’t qualify him. 20G 45P last year. Ottawa needed a roster player and that’s who they could have. Trade him at the deadline and you’ll get a 2nd. Sebrango worth is up for debate, I would say as high as a 3rd, but at least a 5th or 6th. Add a 4th to Sebrango and you can call it equal to the 3rd. The 1st round slide is where you have some ground to stand on, which is why I said it’s slightly less than what they gave for him. Considering they got a year out of him, he performed below previous production, and you now have no leverage, it’s fair to understand why you would get less. But let’s not forget that the 7th pick was a fairly weak class. Worth outside the top 10 in most drafts

I don't understand why people think this isn't a good deal for OTT.

They litterally got a 1st who might be very high, a decent prospect in Sebrango, an amazing 40 point player for a player that wanted to leave...

Amazing trade for Detroit too. W-W.

THANK YOU. It's always the case ppl like to overreact in the immediate aftermath. I think most that were a part of an informed discussion here on capfriendly, to some degree, agreed that his trade value to the wings would be right around this. Kubalik (the obvious roster player) who is worth about a 2nd rd pick, a 1st rd pick and maybe a bit more but likely not any of the wings good prospects (like Berggren or Mazur or even Soderblom). I think it's a fair deal for both teams, not a glaring win or loss, but both got about what they wanted and could expect given the situations.

That's what I'm thinking. The could be another Bo Horvat trade. If Alex DeBrincat slips in Detroit and Dominik Kubalik improves even a little, then those two pieces alone would be close to a fair trade. Donovan Sebrango is young, but at the moment, it doesn't look like he will rise above the AHL, which is likely also true of the 4th round pick. So the 1st round pick could tip the scales in Ottawa's favour.

As it is, it looks a fair trade to me.

He was a bad player at $4 million, but a great player at $2.5 million. Ottawa is getting him at $2.5 million. You would get at least a 3rd for that. Hell, the Canucks got a 3rd for Luke Schenn.

Also, Ottawa traded for Debrincat when he has a year on his contract and traded his signing rights. That lowers the value.

I just checked, Alex DeBrincat was -20.2 in the On-Ice Goal Differential Above Expected. Yes, he can score 40 goals, but he can also cost your team a bundle.

It's only a fact, if a GM is giving up a lot of assets he should know if the player is willing to stay

I will concede to your first argument.

But Detroit obviously negotiated a new contract with DeBrincat before they traded for him.

DeBrincats team has been negotiating with potential trade partners for weeks, and he signed immediately.

So Ottawa traded for him with 1 year guaranteed, Detroit got 4 years. That should increase his value.

Detroit wins the trade pretty clearly.

Ottawa was in a tough spot, and acquiring Debrincat at all really amounted to a waste of assets. It's too bad, because I don't think the logic was bad, and even though it didn't turn out well, the reason the risk was worth it, is that this is the worst case scenario because of his RFA status. The problem is, the worst case scenario is what happened, and what Ottawa now has to live with.

Detroit wins the deal, but man I have no idea what the plan is. Are they competitive in this 4 year window? Their roster doesn't look that great, and they keep signing stop gap players to big contracts. Are Copp and Compher really a pair of forwards to commit nearly $11M in cap space to for the next several years?

Looking at Detroit right now, they have a decent forward group, but it's a group that could be very competitive for a team that has an elite Blueline, or Very good blueline and elite goalie. Instead, they have a decent forward group, but that is their strength, and it isn't nearly strong enough to make up for that blueline or the fact they have keep rolling the dice in net and never really come out with anything special. Again, this deal is good, but I just wonder what the plan is in Detroit, because it seems like a lot of just grasping at straws.

So there is no place for my Czechs in Yzerplan?
shame on him

I frankly see this deal as good for both sides.

Having read many of the comments regarding the Sens, the one thing that is missed - and matters, is Greig. No, he wasn't part of the deal, but we can likely all agree that by the end of the year he is playing end line minutes, where Debrincat would have been. Leaving Kubalik to be an excellent addition to a 3rd line with Pinto.

That is thinking outside the package... but I agree with those that say the Sens got very close to what they gave up initially.

The 1st is a bit of a slide, but not so much so I would be flipping my bird. Kubalik is most certainly worth a 2nd - he was good in Chicago. He was good in Detroit. The contract hit is probably below market value for a 40 point player. Getting a long term project on D with 4th makes up the 3rd.

But the overall package for the Sens checks off boxes long term. They are not a better team as a result of this deal, but I argue they are not worse either. What they just became is more balanced. A full season of Grieg and Norris will more than make up for Debrincat. And now the Sens have 2 players that could throw up 40 point seasons on the 3rd line - which not many teams have.

Could Dorion have done better in terms of the prospect? Perhaps. But everyone recognizes Dorion was up against it. In comparison, one could look at the Horvat deal and say the return on Debrincat is similar.

Boston 2023 1st < Detroit/Boston 1st 2024

Beauviller = Kubalik

Raty > Sebrango & a 4th

All and all SIMILAR.

It is not the sky is falling sort of trade

It’s not fair to judge this trade by what Ottawa gave up to get DeBrincat last year. That was a different situation. He was two years away from potential unrestricted free agency, which is not a long time, but Ottawa got cost certainty for the first year at a pretty low cap hit for a 24-year-old coming off his second 41-goal season, which raised his trade value. Although they didn’t make the playoffs, they benefited from his services at a good price for that season. This year they were trading signing rights to an unsigned RFA who wanted out and was going to arbitration.

Better comparisons would be Timo Meier and Pierre-Luc Dubois. Which of those situations is more similar depends on whether you think DeBrincat already had a contract negotiated with Detroit before the trade (which I believe they could do without Ottawa’s permission since he became a RFA on July 1). If not, then Meier is probably the best comparable, though Meier’s trade value should have been higher because in addition to acquiring his RFA signing rights, New Jersey also got him for last year’s playoff run at a reduced cap hit, which was probably worth a late 1st and more just to rent him for that time. If you subtract that from the package New Jersey got for Meier, I think what Ottawa got here is in the same ballpark.

If Detroit had the contract already negotiated, then Dubois is a better comparable. I don’t think the fact that LA signed Dubois for 8 years and Detroit signed DeBrincat for 4 is relevant – the point is that both teams knew they’d be getting a signed player. Winnipeg wanted roster players while Ottawa went more for futures, but it looks like Winnipeg got a better return than Ottawa. Iaffalo is signed for one season more than Kubalik, and Vilardi + Kupari are probably worth more than Sebrango + the 4th-round pick and the difference between the 1st Ottawa got and the 2nd Winnipeg got, but Vilardi and Kupari are unsigned RFAs, so there’s a lot of uncertainty around how long Winnipeg will be able to keep them around and what it’s going to cost them to do so. Of course, there’s also uncertainty around how good Sebrango and the 1st-round draft pick will turn out to be for Ottawa, but they have control over those assets for at least a few years.

One thing we shouldn’t ignore is that Ottawa got another valuable asset in this trade: Cap space. Instead of DeBrincat at whatever he would have been awarded in arbitration, they now have Kubalik at only $2.5M. What that cap space is worth will depend on what they do with it.

In summary, great trade for Detroit, and probably close to market value for Ottawa given their situation.

It's roughly what I expected, but it is still disappointing. I can't imagine what Dorion would have recieved without an extension. He probably would have pivoted to a hockey trade somewhere else.

The best realistic scenario for Ottawa is that 1st ends up in the 11th-16th wheel house via both Detroit and Boston missing the playoffs. Otherwise, if Boston continues to dominate, it's more likely to be a pick near the end of the round. Although, I'm not even sure that the Senators will keep that first. They could trade it in season for a rental as they clearly need to make the playoffs.

You have to account for the 8M in cap space opened up. If the Senators sign Tarasenko to a short term contract, that makes the return a bit easier to swallow.

Yzerman did a great job exercising his leverage with both the player and the team.

Dorion should have never acquired Debrincat. I suspect he acquired him knowing he would be a 1 year rental, and he thought he could recoup similar value flipping his RFA rights.

Ottawa didn't have the leverage Chicago had.

LOL and that should shut up all the sens fans that wanted to see him get 2 firsts plus the whole kitchen.

Kubalik is not worth a 2nd... At most, he's worth a 3rd... Sebrango is a C tier prospect... What Ottawa got for DeBrincat was roughly a 3rd more than what Montreal got for Chiarot... Ottawa gave up Korchinski, one of the best defensive prospect in anyone's NHL system, so your argument for a 'weak' draft is useless as you'll be getting quality at number 7, no matter the draft.

I'm sorry but:

7th+39th+3rd>>>>>>1st+Kubalik+C tier prospect+4rth

We can argue about the valuations all day. Point is that yes, your left side is greater but I think only slightly. This always should have been the case given the situation

Dorion should have known better than to think Debrincat’s value as an unsigned RFA would be similar to what it was with a year left on his contract last summer. I think he acquired him knowing that he could be a 1-year rental, but he figured the difference between what he paid to get him and what he thought he could get for his RFA rights was worth gambling on the chance to extend him. I think he was also going all in on trying to make the playoffs last season. I believe he knew what he was doing; it just didn't work out.

People need to evaluate the position Dorion and the franchise was in. They were preparing for a sale. They were a few years removed from 4000k-5000k fans in the stands. They needed to drum up excitement as an investment in making the team look as appealing as possible to a prospective buyer. Dorion also was under pressure to make the playoffs and show some proof of concept for his rebuild.

I doubt he expected to recoup a top 10 pick, but if Dorion got the 17th overall, and a couple 2nds or 3rds, I would call that close enough for it to have been worth it when you consider the possible off ice reasons for acquiring a big star. At that point, he would have rented him for whatever you perceive the difference as between a top 20 pick in 2023 and a top 10 pick in 2022.

There are two issues with the pick he got back. First, it's protected multiple times over and the draft position for the pick will be determined by the performance of a consistently good team. The second issue is that the Senators could potentially have to wait until 2025 to use the pick. I suspect there is a reasonable chance that the pick will be traded before then. If the Senators are pushing at the deadline, it doesn't help Dorion to hold on to a pick for his possible successor to use - What helps him is to acquire a rental who can help the Sens push for a deep playoff run.