Forums/NHL Trades

(NJD/ARI) - Hall, Speers for Bahl, Merkley, Schnarr, 1sr round pick, conditional 3rd round pick

Who won the trade?
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Dec 18, 2019 at 3:02
#101
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
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Quoting: F50marco
The ages and descriptions I gave in my analysis were at the time of the trade. Not using any hindsight. (Except for at the end with Verhaeghe but regardless he was only a 3rd rounder and not a top prospect)

Also all of the players in the Grabner trade, except for Verhaeghe, were 21 years old or older. The only player over 21 in the Hall trade is Merkely. A former 1st round pick who despite not proving he's worthy of the 1st round status is still putting up decent points in the AHL. He is only 22 years old. Not old enough to wrote off yet either. I feel people are too black or white with this guy. Just because he isn't a future stud doesn't mean he can't be a good player still.

Toronto already had a good idea of what they had in those players. Most of what NJ got are still junior aged assets. (Bahl / 1st / cond 3rd). Schnarr 20 games into his pro career. Merkely is the only known commodity at the moment.

I agree quality tends to be better than quantity but that isn't a guaranteed rule, its just an ideology. One that doesn't always work out.

I think Hall being a winger, injury prone, expecting to get a huge raise, higher chance to test free agency, 1 really good season and that's it, are what stopped Shero from getting the quality people think he was worth.

I'm not sure any GM could have convinced another GM otherwise. So despite that fact, Shero did the next best thing, get as many assets as possible (of decently high calibre) and hope that at least one becomes high quality.

There's also the fact that Arizona is not guaranteed anything yet. With a couple injuries to key players they could be a bubble team. Not much gap in the NHL with the parity. If St Louis can do what they did last year, Arizona could easily miss the playoffs with a little bad luck.


Ultimately they got a bunch of lottery tickets in return for Hall. If this really was the best offer (which reports say may not be the case) then fine, get as many lotto tickets and hope for the best. The fact that the return is comparable in any way to the Grabner trade tells you everything though, even if the return is better.
This is one of those trades we will need to come back to in 5+ years to figure out, so it is just a waiting game now. Until proven otherwise though, I don't like it for the Devils on a philosophical level or a comparison level.
Dec 18, 2019 at 3:20
#102
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 63
Likes: 2
I think that Shero did a good job with this trade. Hall is just a rental for one year if Arizona does not resign Hall. He got Merkly were he is a very good foward prospect. Kevin Bahl was a so-so player but I think when he was drafted he was to hype up. Scharr never got the shot to play in the NHL and 2 picks also. This is a very good trade for the Devils
Dec 18, 2019 at 3:32
#103
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 16,513
Likes: 4,256
Quoting: Random2152
Ultimately they got a bunch of lottery tickets in return for Hall. If this really was the best offer (which reports say may not be the case) then fine, get as many lotto tickets and hope for the best. The fact that the return is comparable in any way to the Grabner trade tells you everything though, even if the return is better.
This is one of those trades we will need to come back to in 5+ years to figure out, so it is just a waiting game now. Until proven otherwise though, I don't like it for the Devils on a philosophical level or a comparison level.


I mean, which trade are you referring to where the prospect received was not a "lottery pick" type piece and are you pretty much just using Vegas trades? Because Mcphee has overpaid every single one of his winger trades.... skewing what people think is fair value. Tatar, Pacioretty, Stone, etc

I don't know where this idea that NJ HAD to get one of Hayton or Soderstrom for this to be a good trade, is coming from? Other than with Vegas, teams almost never trade recently drafted 1-20th pick prospects, for pending UFA's. Especially so for wingers.

Take out Vegas trades and go search up the best 5 pending UFA winger trades in the NHL the last 5 years. You'll be shocked at what they got if you are expecting Haytons and Soderstroms.
Dec 18, 2019 at 6:12
#104
Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 217
Likes: 35
Quoting: Brian2016
Hall was excellent in the playoffs in 2018 vs. Tampa. The only things that mitigated his trade value was his injury history and his relatively slow start to this season. When healthy, he's a top 20 player. The fact that he's only made the playoffs once is more a reflection of the terrible teams around him.


Take away his hart trophy year and he's a 20 goal player. Not a top 20 player. Potential to be on his 4th team before he's 30. Talent aside, you can't blame the teams he's on. Top 20 players rise to the occasion, not jump around the league until they find a team that suits their skill set.
Dec 18, 2019 at 6:30
#105
buffalofan
Joined: Nov 2017
Posts: 868
Likes: 122
Quoting: Random2152
Njd got 3 b/c prospects, a 3rd and a 1st
The 3rd likely turns into a b/c prospect.
That is a total of 4b/c prospects and a 1st.
Grabner got 5 b/c prospects

Hall got more, but not a ton more. Those are very similar packages


well i get that you have an opinion but its wrong.
i personally guarantee that 1 or 2 of the players that went in hall trade will amass more points and nhl games the the combined list of players that went for grabby.
14 +5 +22=41 games and 4 points for all the players that went for grabby after being traded.
Dec 18, 2019 at 8:06
#106
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 247
Likes: 65
I wonder what Hall would be worth if he was locked up at $5.25M for the upcoming 3 seasons, was 2 years younger and not prone to injury?
Surely a lot more than a 1st, a 3rd and a prospect...
Dec 18, 2019 at 10:23
#107
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,918
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Quoting: jonnymc26
well i get that you have an opinion but its wrong.
i personally guarantee that 1 or 2 of the players that went in hall trade will amass more points and nhl games the the combined list of players that went for grabby.
14 +5 +22=41 games and 4 points for all the players that went for grabby after being traded.


And how many of those players are more than fringe NHLers at best? Outside of what that 1st turns into I don't see a single one
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Dec 18, 2019 at 10:31
#108
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
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Likes: 2,220
Quoting: F50marco
I mean, which trade are you referring to where the prospect received was not a "lottery pick" type piece and are you pretty much just using Vegas trades? Because Mcphee has overpaid every single one of his winger trades.... skewing what people think is fair value. Tatar, Pacioretty, Stone, etc

I don't know where this idea that NJ HAD to get one of Hayton or Soderstrom for this to be a good trade, is coming from? Other than with Vegas, teams almost never trade recently drafted 1-20th pick prospects, for pending UFA's. Especially so for wingers.

Take out Vegas trades and go search up the best 5 pending UFA winger trades in the NHL the last 5 years. You'll be shocked at what they got if you are expecting Haytons and Soderstroms.


I mean, how often are superstars traded at all? You ask me to take out what you call the overpay, but those are the vast majority of recent star rentals being done (stone specifically, although he had an extension).

I am actually okay if the market proves to be this for future rentals, makes it cheaper for the leafs, I'm just also saying that I would want a different package with better players and or prospects rather than multiple low chance, low reward lotto tickets.

If they were allowing extension talks, trochek was available. Calgary was also in on a hockey trade, which going by rumours could mean Gaudreau for hall (with extension) and maybe some other pieces.

TL;dr my issue is less on total value as it is on who they got back specifically, especially considering what they are losing
Dec 18, 2019 at 10:54
#109
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 16,513
Likes: 4,256
Quoting: Random2152
I mean, how often are superstars traded at all? You ask me to take out what you call the overpay, but those are the vast majority of recent star rentals being done (stone specifically, although he had an extension).

I am actually okay if the market proves to be this for future rentals, makes it cheaper for the leafs, I'm just also saying that I would want a different package with better players and or prospects rather than multiple low chance, low reward lotto tickets.

If they were allowing extension talks, trochek was available. Calgary was also in on a hockey trade, which going by rumours could mean Gaudreau for hall (with extension) and maybe some other pieces.

TL;dr my issue is less on total value as it is on who they got back specifically, especially considering what they are losing


I think the lack of interest in giving up better quality assets showed what the NHL thinks of Hall. Take away his one hit wonder season, he is not a superstar. He is a really good player and plenty of those get traded every couple of years at the very least.

The CGY offer btw was Bennett, Hamonic and a cond. 1st pick if Hall resigned. Not Gaudreau. Trochek was only available if Hall signed an extension, it was Hall that wouldn't talk extension, not the Devils. The Devils gain nothing from not allowing teams to discuss an extension prior to the deal. Hall is looking more and more like he wants to test free agency. This dramatically reduced his what Shero could get from teams.

I think you may be misinterpreting regardless though. I agree, if there were better prospects to be had, Shero is a ding dong for not accepting those offers. I just don't believe there was a better offer.

There's no way of proving this way or that way so we can't come to any concrete conclusion about what the other offers were but I'd like to think that if they were unanimously/agreed upon as better than what he currently got, he'd have accepted them.

I really don't think Shero went into the trade negotiations saying " alright guys, I don't want quality prospects, I want a lot of decent but not great pieces instead".......
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Dec 19, 2019 at 4:52
#110
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
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Quoting: F50marco
I think the lack of interest in giving up better quality assets showed what the NHL thinks of Hall. Take away his one hit wonder season, he is not a superstar. He is a really good player and plenty of those get traded every couple of years at the very least.

The CGY offer btw was Bennett, Hamonic and a cond. 1st pick if Hall resigned. Not Gaudreau. Trochek was only available if Hall signed an extension, it was Hall that wouldn't talk extension, not the Devils. The Devils gain nothing from not allowing teams to discuss an extension prior to the deal. Hall is looking more and more like he wants to test free agency. This dramatically reduced his what Shero could get from teams.

I think you may be misinterpreting regardless though. I agree, if there were better prospects to be had, Shero is a ding dong for not accepting those offers. I just don't believe there was a better offer.

There's no way of proving this way or that way so we can't come to any concrete conclusion about what the other offers were but I'd like to think that if they were unanimously/agreed upon as better than what he currently got, he'd have accepted them.

I really don't think Shero went into the trade negotiations saying " alright guys, I don't want quality prospects, I want a lot of decent but not great pieces instead".......


In terms of that last bit, the fear isn't that he is going in to get more of less, the fear is that he thinks he is getting more. We just assume GM's evaluate packages properly, but time and time again they prove that they do not.

In terms of hall being just a good player, look at the teams around him his entire career. Once you isolate him from the trashheaps he has played on, he is all he is hyped up to be. Maybe GM's evaluated him incorrectly too, idk but the point is he is a star and should be fantastic whereever he ends up
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Dec 19, 2019 at 5:31
#111
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 1,950
Likes: 817
Quoting: worcat
Take away his hart trophy year and he's a 20 goal player. Not a top 20 player. Potential to be on his 4th team before he's 30. Talent aside, you can't blame the teams he's on. Top 20 players rise to the occasion, not jump around the league until they find a team that suits their skill set.


EDM has the 2 best players (in my opinion) in the entire league and they're still a below average team! I get what you're saying, but I've watched him play every game for the last 3 1/2 seasons and he's an elite offensive player. ARI should win the Pacific this season. He's never had the benefit of playing with a #1 Center.

In my opinion there are 7 better Wingers right now in the league not factoring age: Draisaitl, Kane, Rantanen, Pasta, Marchand, Kucherov, and Panarin.
Dec 19, 2019 at 5:41
#112
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 1,950
Likes: 817
Quoting: Random2152
I mean, how often are superstars traded at all? You ask me to take out what you call the overpay, but those are the vast majority of recent star rentals being done (stone specifically, although he had an extension).

I am actually okay if the market proves to be this for future rentals, makes it cheaper for the leafs, I'm just also saying that I would want a different package with better players and or prospects rather than multiple low chance, low reward lotto tickets.

If they were allowing extension talks, trochek was available. Calgary was also in on a hockey trade, which going by rumours could mean Gaudreau for hall (with extension) and maybe some other pieces.

TL;dr my issue is less on total value as it is on who they got back specifically, especially considering what they are losing


Agreed. I think Devils fans would've been much happier with Hall for Hayton or Soderstrom straight up. But, that wasn't on the table. I just wanted Hall gone ASAP. He'd become a huge distraction, especially to the younger guys and their development. I'm very relieved that Shero didn't wait til the deadline to move him. The Devils are right now playing their best hockey of the season. The fact that Hall is gone is no coincidence.
Dec 19, 2019 at 9:41
#113
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 16,513
Likes: 4,256
Quoting: Random2152
In terms of that last bit, the fear isn't that he is going in to get more of less, the fear is that he thinks he is getting more. We just assume GM's evaluate packages properly, but time and time again they prove that they do not.

In terms of hall being just a good player, look at the teams around him his entire career. Once you isolate him from the trashheaps he has played on, he is all he is hyped up to be. Maybe GM's evaluated him incorrectly too, idk but the point is he is a star and should be fantastic whereever he ends up


If it were Chiarelli, maybe, but Shero hasn't done anything to warrant anyone thinking he thinks quantity is better than quality for no reason. I'm not sure anyone can prove otherwise. I think we the fans like to assume the NHL GM's all are blubbering idiots who make bad trades but until we know all the information, we won't understand fully the logic in anything to make better assessment than they would.

I think Shero would have gladly taken a higher quality package, but less quantity overall had one been offered. I just don't think any one bit and realistically, do you blame them? Would you have given a prospect recently drafted in the lottery range for Hall? I wouldn't have.

As for Hall himself, you may have that opinion but it really doesn't matter what you and I think. its whats NHL GM's think and I think they've spoken. If not one team was willing to offer what we all thought would be fair value, is very telling about what we really know about this situation.

I think the minute Hall's agent hinted at not resigning until free agency, his value as a superstar downgraded substantially. There is nothing worse for a GM than going all in, not winning the cup and losing the star at the end of it. ts a bad look for a GM. The risk becomes that much more damaging.

Had Hall's agent been willing to negotiate a contract before being traded, with some traction being made, the value going back to NJ would have been much higher. Hall is to blame for NJ not getting more than they should have. Not Shero.
Dec 20, 2019 at 1:44
#114
dad
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 37
Likes: 18
Quoting: Random2152
I've come down a bit on the Naz trade, but sakic 100% lost that trade, just like Shero lost this one. When Grabner gets a similar packages to Hall, there is an issue.

This is also whataboutism. It is a logical fallacy. You've made no argument against anything I've said.

You also highly underrate hall. His underlyings are fantastic, he is just shooting a low % and on a bad team this year.


I don't really see anything special about Halls game and I don't think he's a real game changer like other superstars. Did the Devils lose the trade? Yes, and no matter what they were getting in return or who they were trading with they would've lost the trade. I think you're just using the word fleeced way too freely.

Say the Yotes win a playoff series and Hall resigns (unlikely, but possible if he does make a big difference to the lineup). NJ would land two first round picks. That's basically what Boston received when they shipped Kessel. I think this is a typical trade that is centered around an elite winger.
Dec 20, 2019 at 1:50
#115
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
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Quoting: dad
I don't really see anything special about Halls game and I don't think he's a real game changer like other superstars. Did the Devils lose the trade? Yes, and no matter what they were getting in return or who they were trading with they would've lost the trade. I think you're just using the word fleeced way too freely.

Say the Yotes win a playoff series and Hall resigns (unlikely, but possible if he does make a big difference to the lineup). NJ would land two first round picks. That's basically what Boston received when they shipped Kessel. I think this is a typical trade that is centered around an elite winger.


That is if he re signs and they go deep. Assuming he doesn't, that isn't a whole lot. Also the picks would be much, much lower than the Kessel trade lol. Late firsts aren't actually all that valuable
Dec 22, 2019 at 1:03
#116
dad
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 37
Likes: 18
At least five other teams were going after Hall, this was clearly the best offer NJ could get and it's easy to understand why. Late firsts aren't that valuable and neither is Hall. NJ got a good return for him.
Dec 30, 2019 at 11:38
#117
McGruff
Joined: Mar 2019
Posts: 548
Likes: 119
AZ currently on a three game losing streak; nice work Taylor the saviour...
Jan 21 at 2:54
#118
KovalchukFor2RDP
Joined: Feb 2019
Posts: 2,947
Likes: 495
Hold on wait what happens if Hall resigns in Arizona, Arizona makes the playoffs (for 2021 1st) and Arizona's 2020 1st is in the top three
Jan 21 at 3:10
#119
best poster
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 1,836
Likes: 1,042
Quoting: MaxDomi13
Hold on wait what happens if Hall resigns in Arizona, Arizona makes the playoffs (for 2021 1st) and Arizona's 2020 1st is in the top three


The playoff round condition only applies to this season. So that would mean New Jersey would receive Arizona's 2021 2nd round pick.
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Jan 21 at 3:21
#120
Joined: Jun 2017
Posts: 3,642
Likes: 1,205
Quoting: MaxDomi13
Hold on wait what happens if Hall resigns in Arizona, Arizona makes the playoffs (for 2021 1st) and Arizona's 2020 1st is in the top three


Arizona can’t make the playoffs and get a top 3 pick.
Jan 22 at 9:22
#121
KovalchukFor2RDP
Joined: Feb 2019
Posts: 2,947
Likes: 495
Quoting: Kotkaniemi15
Arizona can’t make the playoffs and get a top 3 pick.


Oh right
What if they trade for a top 3 pick lol
 
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