Kyle Dubas: "wake up babe the Erik Karlsson trade just dropped"

And so was I. Strange how things turn out. Still a w for San José, just being able to trade him so they could actually tank and fulfill their rebuild

This idea that he was going to bring in a boat load of a return was never a real possibility in my opinion. What there's been 2 teams interested? Pittsburgh and Carolina. Making the money work was obviously the most crucial part of the trade with the flattened cap and most teams with no wiggle room. I Think Grier did pretty well to get a first for him as I didn't think a team would give one up UNLESS they were taking back a bad contract and retaining. I mean the best dmen in the league make like 2-3 million less than him lol he was never bringing back much with that contract and his age.

How are people saying Pittsburgh won this? Sharks only retain $1.5 million of EK's contract, while the Pens gotta retain more of Petry's. If anything, this is a win for Montreal. Pens just got worse defensively.

Cause Erik Karlsson is the best offensive defender in the modern era. Their goal is to win now, and Karlsson helps them achieve that.

serious analysis:
- the Pens made out really well here, considering they a) dumped 4 iffy-to-bad contracts and b) only gave up 2 high-round picks in the process
- Nathan Légaré did well in the QMJHL, but it didn't pan out in the AHL, which happens; the same appears to be true for Dillon Hamaliuk
- Mike Grier kinda got painted into a corner not of his own accord (but also kind of his own accord, given how long this dragged out and how he might have gotten a better deal earlier if he hadn't been trying to wring maximum value out of the trade initially)
- lol the Habs ended up winning the Jeff Petry trade by eventually getting both of the big-name players involved in that trade back

Dubas likes to make a splash when he takes over the helm. There was no Tavares available in free agency, so he had to trade for the biggest name available.

Pens win now, this makes their team better which is the only thing that arguably matters for them, I don't think they care about the long term implications. SJ lose now but long term I think this is good for them, MTL just plainly wins

EK’s huge contract and age.. his 100+ season was an insane year. I hope he can replicate it again but honestly i don’t see that happening he’ll probably be 60-70 point guy this year. Pitt better hope that everyone can stay healthy because in that division they are 4th maybe 5th best team on paper.. that gets you barely a wild card into the playoffs.. depending on what the Atlantic does.

Probs one of the funniest trades in a while

Anyways Pitt bought a bomb pray it does not go off soon

Good trade for the pens and MTL.

Can't get over how little futures are in this deal. Would've thought San Jose would've got more than one assest thats never played against Karlsson. Or at least something that is undoubtedly going to still be in the league when his contract expires.

1. San Jose Sharks traded:

2023 Norris Trophy Winner Erik Karlsson at 10 million x 4
ECHL Prospect Dillon Hamaliuk
San Jose's 2026 3rd round pick

for

Mike Hoffman
Mikael Granlund
Jan Rutta
Pittsburgh's 2024 1st round pick with Top 10 Protection


This is awful for San Jose




2. Montreal traded:

Mike Hoffman
Rem Pitlick

for

Jeff Petry at 4.6875 million x 2
Casey DeSmith
AHL prospect Nathan Legare
Pittsburgh's 2025 2nd round pick


Montreal did good here.





3. Pittsburgh traded:

Mikael Granlund
Jeff Petry at 4.6875 million 2
Jan Rutta
Casey DeSmith
AHL Prospect Nathan Legare
Pittsburgh's 2024 1st round pick with Top 10 Protection
Pittsburgh's 2025 2nd round pick

for

2023 Norris Trophy Winner Erik Karlsson at 10 million x 4
Rem Pitlick
ECHL Prospect Dillon Hamaliuk
San Jose's 2026 3rd round pick


Pittsburgh did better than San Jose, but worse than Montreal.




In conclusion,

There is way too much value in this trade for Montreal and not enough for San Jose.

And Pittsburgh has about as much to lose in this trade as San Jose did when they acquired Karlsson 5 years ago.




The Montreal Canadiens win the trade.

So a lot of moving parts here in organizations I'm less familiar with, so trying to see if I follow.

So Montreal essentially got
DeSmith (solid but not special backup). Likely quite low but positive value
What appears like a nothing prospect in legare?
And a 2025 second
Got to dump one year of Hoffman (pp specialist with skill there but otherwise pretty crappy)

In exchange for trading a depth piece with low value (Pitlick) and taking back a bad contract but retained in Petry, but 2 years vs Hoffman's 1 year

Pitts
Good:
Traded/dumped ruuta (neutral to mildly bad value)
Traded/dumped Granlund. Value controversial as his offense isn't bad, but analytics people think he's just awful. 2 years
Got a nothing prospect
Got a third
Got the mildly retained super star!!! (Karlsson)
Got a decent depth player (Pitlick)
Got out of most of Petry for 2 years

Paid:
2024 protected first
2025 second
Retention on Petry for two years
A solid backup but minimal value as they had 3 goalies

Sneaky bad:
By trading bad contracts instead of having sj retain more they will have Karlsson at 9.5 in years 3 and 4 when he's likely to be at his worst

San Jose
Cost
Paid karlsson
Retention on Karlsson (low but 4 years)
Took three dumps (ruuta and Granlund 2 years, Hoffman one).
A 3rd

Got:
A protected first
Got out of the majority of karlsson's contract

I think this is overall LIKELY* fair and people were way over valuing Karlsson/underappreciating the issues of trading his contract when they were discussing the returns he'd get

I think the clincher here if it was fair for everyone or if Montreal rocked it is what one thinks of Petry. He was a great defenseman a couple years ago. I haven't watched him much recently but he certainly has taken a lot of hate. So if he does truly suck it's fair. If he's still an okay second pair defenseman they did quite well

Massive Sharks L

Massive Habs W

Pittsburgh does the most obvious thing that we all saw coming.

If u think about it they can get futures via the TDL as if Hoffman and Granlund rebound a 2nd or more could head back. Also man next season SJS gonna have cap space with Labanc, Hoffman, Duclair, Lindblom and Barabanov gone

Finally can start the true rebuild.

Issue is they have used 2/3 retention spots so might need to use a third team for that

League should honestly increase retention spots to 5

So what this boils down to is:

Montreal traded Poehling and a 4th to Pittsburgh for Matheson and 25% retention on Petry's contract

Then traded Hoffman and Pitlick for a 2nd in 2025, DeSmith and a career AHLer

Hoffman is washed. Habs got paid to get rid of him despite the narrative to the contrary here.

But.....but......but.....Norris trophy, he's worth 3 1st rounders, we don't need to retain , they'll clean up trading him

I wasn't expecting Karlsson to go for a boatload though with how bad his contract is, but with some retention, a 100pt dman for $10M aav is not that bad and should fetch more than a protected 1st. Then you have the contract dumps going the other way for free when SJS had all the leverage with PIT having no cap space. It should've been at least: unprotected 1st, 2nd, and a B prospect, along with the contract dumps. I wouldn't call that a boatload deal.

San Jose easily wins this trade.

They got out of 87 percent of the Erik Karlsson contract 2 years earlier than they otherwise would have, and they were given a 1st round pick (for a 3rd) to do it. That's a massive win.

The contracts they took on are 1-2 years in length. They are currently rebuilding, so cap in 3 and 4 years from now is a lot more valuable to them than cap this year and next year. 3 years from now is when they should be thinking of acquiring big pieces via trade or free agency to push the rebuild forward. Without cap space, they cannot do that.

They had zero leverage because Karlsson was disgruntled and did not want to be there. They did not want him there. This isn't NHL 13 on the Xbox 360. We see this all the time where people online say "OH WE DON'T HAVE TO TRADE HIM IF WE DON'T WANT TO", and then the player gets traded right before training camp or at the trade deadline for less than expected. The reason is, teams cannot hold on to disgruntled players without it hurting the organization by creating a toxic atmosphere. Not to mention, there are only so many agents and agencies in the hockey world. How a team conducts their relationship with one player can damage their ability to maintain and build relationships in the future with different players. Again, this isn't a video game. There is more to consider. Similar to when Ottawa moved Karlsson on the first day of training camp, it was pretty obvious that San Jose was going to move him before the season opened. They were pushing for any ounce of leverage they had. Only retaining 1.5M was likely the consolation they got from all that pushing.

For Pittsburgh, this is a good fit. If Karlsson sucks in a year or two, their entire core is declining anyways. They have a lot less to lose by keeping him around. It wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't play out his entire contract in Pittsburgh, and he ends up somewhere in the East like Ottawa, Montreal, New York, etc. If it were up to his family, they would live in Ottawa full-time. Pittsburgh is a team on the decline. If they trade Karlsson, it is because they decided to start a rebuild. With less term on Karlsson's deal at that point, unlike San Jose, they might be in a position to retain the full 50 percent. If Karlsson remains even remotely good, I could see Pittsburgh getting that 1st round pick back 2 years from now.

I don't like the trade for Montreal. I think they should have gotten more for facilitating this. Maybe I am undervaluing what Petry brings at his retained cap hit.

The thing is we have seen guys struggle on one team go to another and rebound. Hoffman in MTL wasnt a fit from day 1 but who knows could thrive in SJS to where he can have TDL value

As if he gets 20 goals and 45 points someone will trade for him at the TDL.

Saw many of these ACGMs by Sharks fans. They were demanding the world of the Oilers. Had many giving more to the Sharks for EK65 and they were told it was a low ball offer by same fans.
More of the same.

Montreal wins this one. If either of the draft pick or the prospect hit, then they've won hands down.
If Karlsson returns to his norm (30-40 points) then Pittsburgh loses massively. He would have to maintain a ppg pace for the rest of his contract for them to win.
San Jose is now nearly guaranteed to finish at or near the bottom of the league.

I'm not happy to see Petry back in Mtl.
I don't want him to play and take time away from others. Unless having him allows us to play Guhle on the Left side and other youngsters don't lose out, I think having him back is bad.